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Post by rif153 on Apr 12, 2020 13:05:01 GMT
With Khan at the helm, he's going to have to throw so many improvements to London in order to be voted for. Khan in many local constitutencies has been seen as controversial, and local MPs clearly aren't standing by his decisions. I hope he isn't mayor for another round, I can't see the network fall to pieces. I'm not so sure that's the case - apart from the outer boroughs with exceptions, London is practically controlled by Labour partly because of the EU referendum which London voted unanimously against leaving but the outer boroughs generally were in favour of their Since that time, I can't recall Labour losing any seats in London unlike the Tories or Lib Dems and they've certainly gained some such as Putney. Labour did lose Kensington to the Tories in December though one could largely argue that was a lucky/fluke gain on a wafer thin majority. However, I do agree with your overarching point as Labour have gained 11 seats in London since 2010 a year when they haemorrhaged many seats and haven't regained too many outside of London. |
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Post by TB123 on Apr 12, 2020 13:13:02 GMT
I'm not so sure that's the case - apart from the outer boroughs with exceptions, London is practically controlled by Labour partly because of the EU referendum which London voted unanimously against leaving but the outer boroughs generally were in favour of their Since that time, I can't recall Labour losing any seats in London unlike the Tories or Lib Dems and they've certainly gained some such as Putney. Labour did lose Kensington to the Tories in December though one could largely argue that was a lucky/fluke gain on a wafer thin majority. However, I do agree with your overarching point as Labour have gained 11 seats in London since 2010 a year when they haemorrhaged many seats and haven't regained too many outside of London. Labour did come within an inch of losing Dagenham - what many would consider once prime Labour territory, a working class area, but one affected by the downsizing of industry with the decline of the Ford works. The Tories came 300 votes away from winning in 2019, and it voted 63% to leave the European Union. This tells you the shift in Labour politics, Labour heartlands has gone from being working class areas like Dagenham and similar seats in the North to being liberal middle class London seats like Putney, Islington South, Hampstead, Battersea, which under Thatcher were largely Tory supporting. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Apr 12, 2020 13:59:19 GMT
I think there seems to be a fundamental link here. That part of London is going to be a Tory/Lib Dem battle. Labour don't stand much of a chance, so I wonder if the policy of not flogging a dead horse is being used. Khan could probably throw loads of improvements however it'll be a Tory win at the election. The improvements could probably be better in places which could unexpectedly swing away from Labour - such as those who are Labour stronghold MP seats but voted for Boris in 2008. All polls at the moment show a borderline landslide for Khan at the 2021 election, it seems increasingly likely that we will have another 4 years with him at the helm. Like with Boris that will give him an opportunity to get back into parliament at the 2024 general election. I think we'll see Sadiq Khan win in the first round, assuming the coronavirus is over by then I think Starmer will have helped shift the polls sufficiently to increase Labour's popularity to allow Khan to win in round one, as it is a round one win was within the margin of error of that poll which put him on 49%. If I were a Labour strategist I wouldn't be concerned about the London mayoral election at all, I'd be far more concerned about the Scottish Parliament election in 2021 given the abysmal state of Scottish Labour who are the third largest party in Holyrood behind the SNP and the Tories and for the first time since 1918 have less parliamentary seats in that the Scottish Liberals/Lib Dems. Indeed, in Scotland Labour have been behind the Tories since 2016, including both General Elections. I gather that, local pockets aside, Labour are ahead of the Tories in London, the North and Wales but the Tories ahead everywhere else. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Apr 12, 2020 14:06:11 GMT
I'm not so sure that's the case - apart from the outer boroughs with exceptions, London is practically controlled by Labour partly because of the EU referendum which London voted unanimously against leaving but the outer boroughs generally were in favour of their Since that time, I can't recall Labour losing any seats in London unlike the Tories or Lib Dems and they've certainly gained some such as Putney. Labour did lose Kensington to the Tories in December though one could largely argue that was a lucky/fluke gain on a wafer thin majority. However, I do agree with your overarching point as Labour have gained 11 seats in London since 2010 a year when they haemorrhaged many seats and haven't regained too many outside of London. Even 2010 was a milestone for Labour in London. For many decades London had broadly replicated the country in general, and elected a majority of MPs according to the winning party. However, in 2010, despite losing the General Election Labour remained a little way ahead of the Tories in London. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Apr 12, 2020 14:11:13 GMT
Labour did lose Kensington to the Tories in December though one could largely argue that was a lucky/fluke gain on a wafer thin majority. However, I do agree with your overarching point as Labour have gained 11 seats in London since 2010 a year when they haemorrhaged many seats and haven't regained too many outside of London. Labour did come within an inch of losing Dagenham - what many would consider once prime Labour territory, a working class area, but one affected by the downsizing of industry with the decline of the Ford works. The Tories came 300 votes away from winning in 2019, and it voted 63% to leave the European Union. This tells you the shift in Labour politics, Labour heartlands has gone from being working class areas like Dagenham and similar seats in the North to being liberal middle class London seats like Putney, Islington South, Hampstead, Battersea, which under Thatcher were largely Tory supporting. What I noticed in line with your observation, is that the Tories' largest majority since 1987 did not simply come from regaining seats lost since 1992. In some cases, they gained seats for the first time in many years if ever, such as Blyth Valley, Bolsover and West Bromwich seats. Conversely, some Remain areas that were Tory in 1987 were held by Labour eg Eltham, Exeter and Wirral South. |
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Post by rif153 on Apr 12, 2020 14:20:30 GMT
I think we'll see Sadiq Khan win in the first round, assuming the coronavirus is over by then I think Starmer will have helped shift the polls sufficiently to increase Labour's popularity to allow Khan to win in round one, as it is a round one win was within the margin of error of that poll which put him on 49%. If I were a Labour strategist I wouldn't be concerned about the London mayoral election at all, I'd be far more concerned about the Scottish Parliament election in 2021 given the abysmal state of Scottish Labour who are the third largest party in Holyrood behind the SNP and the Tories and for the first time since 1918 have less parliamentary seats in that the Scottish Liberals/Lib Dems. Indeed, in Scotland Labour have been behind the Tories since 2016, including both General Elections. I gather that, local pockets aside, Labour are ahead of the Tories in London, the North and Wales but the Tories ahead everywhere else. Although I cannot see this being replicated in May 2021, Labour have slipped to a fourth party in Scotland as they have on Westminster constituency; Edinburgh South compared to the Lib Dems having four; Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross, Edinburgh West, Orkney and Shetland and North East Fife. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Apr 12, 2020 16:16:28 GMT
Even back in days of reductions and cuts in the 80s a link would still have been maintained from the city to Oxford Circus. Its funny now but the 242 always seemed the poor relation only going to TCR when the 8 and 25 went to Oxo and Victoria. At the moment the 8 doesn't even reach TCR. Indeed, I even remember being shocked when route 22b, predecessor to route 242, was withdrawn between TCR and Piccadilly Circus. This severed the Chancery Lane - Piccadilly Circus link which does not even have a direct Underground link like Bank - Oxford Circus for example. It's a pity that TfL insufficiently priorise direct bus links in central London where there is no direct Underground link. The 38 almost does this, if you get off at near Grays inn Rd junction it is a stone throw from Chancery Lane. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Apr 12, 2020 16:36:39 GMT
Id like to add - in Sadiq's reports of London Bus Usage across London - these reports are all based off "the past 3 years" of which, funnily enough, has been the time where Sadiq himself has been mayor. I think the major amount of decline in bus usage is to do with Sadiq's measures taken to reduce buses and I feel as if he's in this denial as to people being the blame, not necessarily his overlook on buses. I wouldn't entirely blame Sadiq for the decline of buses in London. Its been part his policies, Uber, roadworks and then many cycle schemes aimed at causing problems for buses where side roads have been closed and also bus lanes removed. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Apr 12, 2020 16:43:43 GMT
Labour did lose Kensington to the Tories in December though one could largely argue that was a lucky/fluke gain on a wafer thin majority. However, I do agree with your overarching point as Labour have gained 11 seats in London since 2010 a year when they haemorrhaged many seats and haven't regained too many outside of London. Labour did come within an inch of losing Dagenham - what many would consider once prime Labour territory, a working class area, but one affected by the downsizing of industry with the decline of the Ford works. The Tories came 300 votes away from winning in 2019, and it voted 63% to leave the European Union. This tells you the shift in Labour politics, Labour heartlands has gone from being working class areas like Dagenham and similar seats in the North to being liberal middle class London seats like Putney, Islington South, Hampstead, Battersea, which under Thatcher were largely Tory supporting. Labour is now seen by many as the party for London, the minority, or party for migrants etc. Not the working class. This has been echo's around the country and is why they also suffered such a heavy blow. They do not listen to anyone else, they tactics, polices etc have been geared towards that. It has not given out much on rewarding people for working hard. Then the lets tax the rich etc when a lot of the polices they still would not be able to recover from the rich as they say, who would either move companies abroad etc. Sad to say the mega rich are always one step ahead of the system |
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Post by redbus on Apr 12, 2020 17:21:57 GMT
Id like to add - in Sadiq's reports of London Bus Usage across London - these reports are all based off "the past 3 years" of which, funnily enough, has been the time where Sadiq himself has been mayor. I think the major amount of decline in bus usage is to do with Sadiq's measures taken to reduce buses and I feel as if he's in this denial as to people being the blame, not necessarily his overlook on buses. I wouldn't entirely blame Sadiq for the decline of buses in London. Its been part his policies, Uber, roadworks and then many cycle schemes aimed at causing problems for buses where side roads have been closed and also bus lanes removed. I tend to agree that Sadiq isn't entirely to blame for the decline in bus travel. He was dealt a poor hand, and some of the policies of the previous Mayor have unintentionally or otherwise led to a decline in bus travel. That is not to say Sadiq is off the hook, far from it, but rather than reversing the policies of his predecessor he has largely continued with them. He has also had his own policies which have led to a decline in bus usage. There are also factors outside the Mayor's control or where the Mayor has only limited control. Going back to the question posed in the first post in this thread - double deck routes that are now single decker - if not mentioned already the 187 (now split into the 187 and 487) used to be double deck. The 46 also used to be double deck. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 12, 2020 17:56:12 GMT
What was the first major cut back really?
Was it New Addington which whilst it did remove some bph from certain roads by removing the T32 in may ways there were still improvements with 64 serving Fieldway and extending via Homestead Way.
I know the 13 was proposed under Boris and saved then came back as the 82 withdrawal under Sadiq.
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Post by busaholic on Apr 12, 2020 17:56:23 GMT
I wouldn't entirely blame Sadiq for the decline of buses in London. Its been part his policies, Uber, roadworks and then many cycle schemes aimed at causing problems for buses where side roads have been closed and also bus lanes removed. I tend to agree that Sadiq isn't entirely to blame for the decline in bus travel. He was dealt a poor hand, and some of the policies of the previous Mayor have unintentionally or otherwise led to a decline in bus travel. That is not to say Sadiq is off the hook, far from it, but rather than reversing the policies of his predecessor he has largely continued with them. He has also had his own policies which have led to a decline in bus usage. There are also factors outside the Mayor's control or where the Mayor has only limited control. Going back to the question posed in the first post in this thread - double deck routes that are now single decker - if not mentioned already the 187 (now split into the 187 and 487) used to be double deck. The 46 also used to be double deck. The 187 was always a very strange route, really two routes masquerading as one with an overlap in the middle. It was possible to get a journey from Hampstead Heath all the way to South Harrow Station, and I did so once, but you needed both a timetable to hand and a plan B if your chosen bus was a staff cut! The old 139 Dagenham to Gants Hiill, even Ilford at times, was another oddity, taking the most indirect route possible, and another with a very poor offpeak frequency and the first to lose it if crews weren't available. Both were always double deck operated though. |
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Post by busaholic on Apr 12, 2020 18:06:26 GMT
What was the first major cut back really? Was it New Addington which whilst it did remove some bph from certain roads by removing the T32 in may ways there were still improvements with 64 serving Fieldway and extending via Homestead Way. I know the 13 was proposed under Boris and saved then came back as the 82 withdrawal under Sadiq. Yes, the Finchley Road scheme of which the 13 withdrawal was the controversial centrepiece was the harbinger of things to come:I believe the idea was to save 6 buses in all. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 12, 2020 18:11:35 GMT
Not so much the removing of 6 bph but that fact that an entire long established route was going to be withdrawn was the most shocking.
Whilst we had lost the 374 and 494 in the decade before they were fairly low key routes and the 87 was technically entirely replaced by the 5 which was quite interesting bringing such a low number route to Romford.
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Post by greenboy on Apr 12, 2020 18:12:31 GMT
Id like to add - in Sadiq's reports of London Bus Usage across London - these reports are all based off "the past 3 years" of which, funnily enough, has been the time where Sadiq himself has been mayor. I think the major amount of decline in bus usage is to do with Sadiq's measures taken to reduce buses and I feel as if he's in this denial as to people being the blame, not necessarily his overlook on buses. I wouldn't entirely blame Sadiq for the decline of buses in London. Its been part his policies, Uber, roadworks and then many cycle schemes aimed at causing problems for buses where side roads have been closed and also bus lanes removed. I agree, in fact if it wasn't for his freeze on fares there would have been an even bigger decline in usage. |
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