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Post by ADH45258 on Jul 17, 2020 22:16:21 GMT
Looking at the list it seems now we've reached a point where the majority of buses that are on order for London are Zero Emission, surely shows where the future is really quickly heading. I definitely think the era of ordering new hybrid double deckers is over. I have noticed since the start of 2020 in all the tender results this year if the vehicle element indicates that new double deck buses will be ordered, there are now only new zero emission double deck buses being ordered. I wouldn't be surprised if the 28 Arriva London HTs are the last new hybrid double decks ordered by a London operator. Go Ahead seem to be just ordering new electrics now, it was mentioned on another thread they have received funding from a bank towards this. I think other operators will continue to order hybrids for a while longer though.
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Post by snowman on Jul 18, 2020 8:34:20 GMT
I definitely think the era of ordering new hybrid double deckers is over. I have noticed since the start of 2020 in all the tender results this year if the vehicle element indicates that new double deck buses will be ordered, there are now only new zero emission double deck buses being ordered. I wouldn't be surprised if the 28 Arriva London HTs are the last new hybrid double decks ordered by a London operator. Go Ahead seem to be just ordering new electrics now, it was mentioned on another thread they have received funding from a bank towards this. I think other operators will continue to order hybrids for a while longer though. I’m not so sure that hybrids will continue to be ordered, full hybrid orders seem to have stopped already Some diesel buses with mini hybrid packs (smart hybrids) are still trickling into service (but these were 2019 orders) The big question is how long can a non zero emission bus stay in London, there have been statements that a ban is coming, but dates seem to vary from 2032 to 2036 depending on who is talking. The problem is a leasing company will see this as a later life risk, and thus price them to have a residual life to end of 2031. Obviously the shorter the time period, the more the monthly payments go up as got fewer months to cover the initial cost. It’s not realistic to assume a TfL spec bus delivered in 2021 will find a new home in early 2030s There is thus evidence that buying an electric bus is rather more future proof. Sure you may need to renew batteries in 8-10 years, but may be able to use it 15-20 years. Remember they don’t have a high maintenance Diesel engine and gearbox, and can use basement parking. They don’t need big vented garages designed for another era. The banks don’t really care if you lease your bus or do hire purchase, and actually HP allows them to finance without getting involved in disposal. Any Operator buying electric buses is probably going to find it easy to use for a second contract (and maybe 3 x 5 year contracts), someone getting hybrids may be stuck at end of a 7 year contract expiring 2028
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Post by southlondonbus on Jul 19, 2020 10:08:23 GMT
Whilst it would appear that all new DDs are electric (173, 174, 200, 69) these have generally only be one or two per each tranche announced. The NP routes were changed awards by Go Ahead themselves it seems. Would a large tranche that say have 5 or 6 DD routes needing new buses all be electric we still dont know. It's possible we are seeing all electric as there are plenty of existing tenders available aswell. I could see the 281 new electric but the 65, 71 and 418 being existing plus either Metroline with the ex 7 buses or a scrape together of an round face Geminis, VHs and ADHs for the 183.
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Post by snowman on Jul 24, 2020 15:40:54 GMT
As per page 36 of TfLs revised budget, aim is to bring forward conversion to zero emission buses from 2037 to 2030 It’s part of helping jobs by building more buses (with Government support) and to reduce CO2 etc content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20200729-item09-finance-report-revised-budget.pdfDoes rather suggest that those Operators currently introducing smart hybrids (and RATP with K1 fleet of diesel E200s) will find they only have a max 10 year life in London. This announcement has probably killed any tender bids for new buses that are not zero emission
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Post by ilovelondonbuses on Aug 20, 2020 13:41:43 GMT
Update 20/08/2020
With the news of vehicle types that Go-Ahead have ordered for their routes, I have updated the Go-Ahead London section in the OP to reflect this news. Also, I have put a "**" sign next to route 358's new bus order details as the details are uncertain at this point and the route may receive buses from another route(s).
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Post by snowman on Sept 1, 2020 19:49:12 GMT
After the flurry of new buses entering service over weekend and today, update on some long delayed batches :
Abellio 7 E400MMCs outstanding (2031, 32, 47, 50-53) RATP all the SDEs for K1 now in service Stagecoach just 3 (11397-9) of the route 25+425 buses remain outstanding
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Post by SILENCED on Sept 1, 2020 19:59:25 GMT
After the flurry of new buses entering service over weekend and today, update on some long delayed batches : Abellio 7 E400MMCs outstanding (2031, 32, 47, 50-53) RATP all the SDEs for K1 now in service Stagecoach just 3 (11397-9) of the route 25+425 buses remain outstanding When I checked the other day, looks like 1 Stagecoach E400, and 4 Abellio E400s (2 for 270 and 2 for 285) will receive 70-reg plates
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Post by vjaska on Sept 1, 2020 22:00:10 GMT
After the flurry of new buses entering service over weekend and today, update on some long delayed batches : Abellio 7 E400MMCs outstanding (2031, 32, 47, 50-53) RATP all the SDEs for K1 now in service Stagecoach just 3 (11397-9) of the route 25+425 buses remain outstanding 1 Caetano electric is also outstanding for WL (1500)
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Post by LK65EBO on Sept 11, 2020 15:26:24 GMT
So far: 1 ADL E400MMC left for route 285 All ADL E400MMCs for the 425 are in service 1 Caetano e.City Gold for the C10 Still waiting for the 23s Optare MetroDeckers which were due in July
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Post by redbus on Sept 11, 2020 22:30:03 GMT
As per page 36 of TfLs revised budget, aim is to bring forward conversion to zero emission buses from 2037 to 2030 It’s part of helping jobs by building more buses (with Government support) and to reduce CO2 etc content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20200729-item09-finance-report-revised-budget.pdfDoes rather suggest that those Operators currently introducing smart hybrids (and RATP with K1 fleet of diesel E200s) will find they only have a max 10 year life in London. This announcement has probably killed any tender bids for new buses that are not zero emission I entirely agree that for all the reasons mentioned, the days of new hybrid buses is over. The risk and therefore cost is rising more and more, and no Operator or leasing company wants to be stuck with them after one tender award in London. All new tenders will be for zero-emission buses or existing buses. I also think LTs will probably be the last if not one of the last non zero-emission buses on the streets of London. It'll be interesting to see how hydrogen buses will fare in this world of zero-emissions. On a separate note has anyone heard more about the Volvo / MCV TfL spec electric double deck bus. I think a prototype was due by now with production starting early 2021?
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Sept 11, 2020 22:49:26 GMT
As per page 36 of TfLs revised budget, aim is to bring forward conversion to zero emission buses from 2037 to 2030 It’s part of helping jobs by building more buses (with Government support) and to reduce CO2 etc content.tfl.gov.uk/board-20200729-item09-finance-report-revised-budget.pdfDoes rather suggest that those Operators currently introducing smart hybrids (and RATP with K1 fleet of diesel E200s) will find they only have a max 10 year life in London. This announcement has probably killed any tender bids for new buses that are not zero emission I entirely agree that for all the reasons mentioned, the days of new hybrid buses is over. The risk and therefore cost is rising more and more, and no Operator or leasing company wants to be stuck with them after one tender award in London. All new tenders will be for zero-emission buses or existing buses. I also think LTs will probably be the last if not one of the last non zero-emission buses on the streets of London. It'll be interesting to see how hydrogen buses will fare in this world of zero-emissions. On a separate note has anyone heard more about the Volvo / MCV TfL spec electric double deck bus. I think a prototype was due by now with production starting early 2021? An extremely weird concept I was thinking of, however I'm not too sure about the feasibility of it is the conversion of LTs, and E40Hs to electric in the future. Both types are series Hybrids, effectively meaning that they run on electricity the full time however the electricity is generated using a Diesel engine once the batteries are depleted. So should the engine be replaced with a battery, would it be possible to keep the motor which actually turns the wheels and powered everything else running? Obviously this brings multiple issues, batteries take up a lot more space than an engine probably would have so you'll be stuck with only fitting them on the roof I imagine which obviously won't be feasible on all routes. This idea also would be a non starter on B5LHs as they don't use a system where they run on electricity but the Diesel engine powers the bus itself once the hybrid batteries are depleted.
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Post by busnetworkexplorer on Sept 12, 2020 0:27:05 GMT
To be honest most of the LT'S will be gone by 2030
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Post by Frenzie on Sept 12, 2020 0:59:10 GMT
I entirely agree that for all the reasons mentioned, the days of new hybrid buses is over. The risk and therefore cost is rising more and more, and no Operator or leasing company wants to be stuck with them after one tender award in London. All new tenders will be for zero-emission buses or existing buses. I also think LTs will probably be the last if not one of the last non zero-emission buses on the streets of London. It'll be interesting to see how hydrogen buses will fare in this world of zero-emissions. On a separate note has anyone heard more about the Volvo / MCV TfL spec electric double deck bus. I think a prototype was due by now with production starting early 2021? An extremely weird concept I was thinking of, however I'm not too sure about the feasibility of it is the conversion of LTs, and E40Hs to electric in the future. Both types are series Hybrids, effectively meaning that they run on electricity the full time however the electricity is generated using a Diesel engine once the batteries are depleted. So should the engine be replaced with a battery, would it be possible to keep the motor which actually turns the wheels and powered everything else running? Obviously this brings multiple issues, batteries take up a lot more space than an engine probably would have so you'll be stuck with only fitting them on the roof I imagine which obviously won't be feasible on all routes. This idea also would be a non starter on B5LHs as they don't use a system where they run on electricity but the Diesel engine powers the bus itself once the hybrid batteries are depleted. Battery technology may improve significantly within the next 10 years and I wouldn’t be surprised if a battery can be developed with the same range as a diesel bus and fit into a similar engine space. If this is the case it would be feasible for series hybrids to be converted to electric, however, the LT body isn’t built to last 20+ years so it’s unlikely that it would be worth the investment. Far better to build buses from scratch which have been designed with zero emissions in mind and therefore don’t have a fuel tank and have sufficient battery cooling systems etc. Does anyone know how long the BYD batteries are designed to last for? Will the BCEs/BDEs/Ees and their single decker equivalents need mid-life battery replacement?
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Post by redbus on Sept 12, 2020 23:18:11 GMT
I entirely agree that for all the reasons mentioned, the days of new hybrid buses is over. The risk and therefore cost is rising more and more, and no Operator or leasing company wants to be stuck with them after one tender award in London. All new tenders will be for zero-emission buses or existing buses. I also think LTs will probably be the last if not one of the last non zero-emission buses on the streets of London. It'll be interesting to see how hydrogen buses will fare in this world of zero-emissions. On a separate note has anyone heard more about the Volvo / MCV TfL spec electric double deck bus. I think a prototype was due by now with production starting early 2021? An extremely weird concept I was thinking of, however I'm not too sure about the feasibility of it is the conversion of LTs, and E40Hs to electric in the future. Both types are series Hybrids, effectively meaning that they run on electricity the full time however the electricity is generated using a Diesel engine once the batteries are depleted. So should the engine be replaced with a battery, would it be possible to keep the motor which actually turns the wheels and powered everything else running? Obviously this brings multiple issues, batteries take up a lot more space than an engine probably would have so you'll be stuck with only fitting them on the roof I imagine which obviously won't be feasible on all routes. This idea also would be a non starter on B5LHs as they don't use a system where they run on electricity but the Diesel engine powers the bus itself once the hybrid batteries are depleted. I would be interesting project to convert a LT or E40H to be fully electric. As you say remove the diesel engine and replace with batteries, but battery space and is probably an issue. However battery technology is improving all the time and I am convinced there will come a time that this will be feasible, but by the time that happens it is likely to be economically silly as these buses will probably be at end of life and. Interestingly if you look at the Siemens ELFA 2 information (I believe LTs use this system), it is said that that you can power the system as you please, by a diesel engine as in the LT, or by batteries, so theatrically the system could handle it. I suspect the BAE system used on the E40H is similarly capable. Of course if the life of LTs were extended by making them fully electric, you'll have a lot of upset forum members who are not fans of LTs!!!
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Post by redbus on Sept 12, 2020 23:32:01 GMT
An extremely weird concept I was thinking of, however I'm not too sure about the feasibility of it is the conversion of LTs, and E40Hs to electric in the future. Both types are series Hybrids, effectively meaning that they run on electricity the full time however the electricity is generated using a Diesel engine once the batteries are depleted. So should the engine be replaced with a battery, would it be possible to keep the motor which actually turns the wheels and powered everything else running? Obviously this brings multiple issues, batteries take up a lot more space than an engine probably would have so you'll be stuck with only fitting them on the roof I imagine which obviously won't be feasible on all routes. This idea also would be a non starter on B5LHs as they don't use a system where they run on electricity but the Diesel engine powers the bus itself once the hybrid batteries are depleted. Battery technology may improve significantly within the next 10 years and I wouldn’t be surprised if a battery can be developed with the same range as a diesel bus and fit into a similar engine space. If this is the case it would be feasible for series hybrids to be converted to electric, however, the LT body isn’t built to last 20+ years so it’s unlikely that it would be worth the investment. Far better to build buses from scratch which have been designed with zero emissions in mind and therefore don’t have a fuel tank and have sufficient battery cooling systems etc. Does anyone know how long the BYD batteries are designed to last for? Will the BCEs/BDEs/Ees and their single decker equivalents need mid-life battery replacement? Just read your post. I won't speculate too much on the body life of an LT, but I suspect that with care it will last somewhat longer than the expected life of the bus as a whole. Remember the Routemaster (RM) was only designed for a 17 year life. In respect of the BYD batteries I understand they are guaranteed for 5 years and this I think can be extended to 10 years. Elsewhere I read the batteries will retain 75% of their maximum charge for 10 years. I therefore think the batteries should be good for 10 years, but given the bus should last somewhat longer, I suspect battery replacement will happen at some point.
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