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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 5, 2021 16:38:42 GMT
All very fascinating.
So, with all the rumour flying around, I’ve assumed most to be factual (famous last words 😂) and have put together some thought as to what may well ensue...
148/168/453 : gone
45 : extended to Marble Arch via current 148.
3 : cut back/diverted to Elephant from the south.
59 : extended to Hampstead Heath via current 168.
388 : extended to Old Kent Road Tesco via current 21. Possible upping of frequency to 6 bph.
21 : withdrawn Bricklayers Arms - Newington Green, diverted instead to Oxford Circus via current 453.
12 : extended to Marylebone via current 453.
172/188 : exchanging Central London terminals (172 extended to Russell Square, 188 cut back to Aldwych), mainly to maintain a semblance of a link from Kingsway to Old Kent Road.
133 : withdrawn north of London Bridge Station.
As always : the caveat that this isn’t what I WANT to happen...
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Post by busman on Apr 5, 2021 16:50:01 GMT
Latest rumour (from a more credible source this time) is that the 388 will be extended to Old Kent Road Tescos. Such a change to the 388 could be indicative of much wider changes to the local network. An extension to OKR seems to be a means to an end - i.e. freeing up space at London Bridge and/or replacing lost links via the hopper fare excuse, but I don't think it will replace any part of the 21. The route alignment doesn't quite match up to logically allow chopping back of the 21. My own thoughts are that an extension of the 388 to OKR Tesco is more likely to be linked to the 78 than the 21. The corridor between Shoreditch and London Bridge is covered well by the 35, 47 and 149 - which enables a rerouting of the 388 to OKR at Shoreditch. I guess most of us will have to wait and see what transpires later this year or early next year. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 5, 2021 17:13:19 GMT
Latest rumour (from a more credible source this time) is that the 388 will be extended to Old Kent Road Tescos. Such a change to the 388 could be indicative of much wider changes to the local network. An extension to OKR seems to be a means to an end - i.e. freeing up space at London Bridge and/or replacing lost links via the hopper fare excuse, but I don't think it will replace any part of the 21. The route alignment doesn't quite match up to logically allow chopping back of the 21. My own thoughts are that an extension of the 388 to OKR Tesco is more likely to be linked to the 78 than the 21. The corridor between Shoreditch and London Bridge is covered well by the 35, 47 and 149 - which enables a rerouting of the 388 to OKR at Shoreditch. I guess most of us will have to wait and see what transpires later this year or early next year. I think the 21 could end up being in the firing line, a rerouting of the 388 to OKR via London Bridge will end up covering the section the 21 uses. The 453 could be rerouted to Lewisham should it be cut back to Oxford Circus and other routes from Central London could cover the section through Hoxton to Newington Green. I think one thing is for certain among all the reports and that is London Bridge is certainly being investigated. A lot of the rumours/reports are centering around that area. |
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 5, 2021 17:23:13 GMT
Such a change to the 388 could be indicative of much wider changes to the local network. An extension to OKR seems to be a means to an end - i.e. freeing up space at London Bridge and/or replacing lost links via the hopper fare excuse, but I don't think it will replace any part of the 21. The route alignment doesn't quite match up to logically allow chopping back of the 21. My own thoughts are that an extension of the 388 to OKR Tesco is more likely to be linked to the 78 than the 21. The corridor between Shoreditch and London Bridge is covered well by the 35, 47 and 149 - which enables a rerouting of the 388 to OKR at Shoreditch. I guess most of us will have to wait and see what transpires later this year or early next year. I think the 21 could end up being in the firing line, a rerouting of the 388 to OKR via London Bridge will end up covering the section the 21 uses. The 453 could be rerouted to Lewisham should it be cut back to Oxford Circus and other routes from Central London could cover the section through Hoxton to Newington Green. I think one thing is for certain among all the reports and that is London Bridge is certainly being investigated. A lot of the rumours/reports are centering around that area. While I agree with the likelihood that the 453 will run to Lewisham and be cut back to Oxford Circus, I suspect the lower 21 number will be used for this route if it happens, and it will be labelled as a withdrawal of 21 from the City section and diversion over the 453 to Oxford Circus. |
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Post by danorak on Apr 5, 2021 17:27:06 GMT
Such a change to the 388 could be indicative of much wider changes to the local network. An extension to OKR seems to be a means to an end - i.e. freeing up space at London Bridge and/or replacing lost links via the hopper fare excuse, but I don't think it will replace any part of the 21. The route alignment doesn't quite match up to logically allow chopping back of the 21. My own thoughts are that an extension of the 388 to OKR Tesco is more likely to be linked to the 78 than the 21. The corridor between Shoreditch and London Bridge is covered well by the 35, 47 and 149 - which enables a rerouting of the 388 to OKR at Shoreditch. I guess most of us will have to wait and see what transpires later this year or early next year. I think the 21 could end up being in the firing line, a rerouting of the 388 to OKR via London Bridge will end up covering the section the 21 uses. The 453 could be rerouted to Lewisham should it be cut back to Oxford Circus and other routes from Central London could cover the section through Hoxton to Newington Green. I think one thing is for certain among all the reports and that is London Bridge is certainly being investigated. A lot of the rumours/reports are centering around that area. I was wondering along similar lines to busman about the 388 change possibly being tied into the 78 rather than the 21. There's a domino effect here - if you lose the 21 north of Bricklayers Arms and increase the 141 slightly in compensation for that and a shortened 43, it might also allow a reduction in the 29. It's going to be fascinating (and quite probably infuriating) to see what TfL come up with. The 59/168 idea mentioned above by twobellstogo is not one I'd heard. |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 5, 2021 17:27:58 GMT
Whilst I can understand Central London facing some sort of cut, Inner London should not be hit so hard. It’s great Outer London is getting some investment but it backwards thinking to do it at the expense of Inner London routes I think it the direct effect of policies of City Corporation and Westminster Council, along with TfLs cycle superhighway team. Over the last 30 years they have blocked off side turnings along loads of bus routes, this has forced other vehicles onto the bus routes slowing them down and making the bus service unattractive. Using a personal example when I first commuted into Liverpool Street in late 1980s, some staff took bus to Fleet Street, 10 mins peak, 5 mins back in mid evening after couple of drinks at pub. Similarly some doing it by bus in just over 10 mins from Waterloo. When I tried it about 2 years ago (pre Lockdown) took more like 20 minutes. Now just too slow. Add to that the capacity of tube has increased (it was still 59 and 62 tube stock then, manually driven, and with guards) and it shows the alternative (tube) has moved on, whilst bus has deteriorated. So now buses in Central London carry too much fresh air. Why subsidise moving fresh air when they are passengers to move elsewhere. But that’s Central London which I already said I can understand why there are cuts there even if I don’t think it’s necessary for some of them - I’m specifically mentioned about Inner London where there is still lots of demand for routes which involve boroughs that usually have low car usage and low car occupancy. Cutting areas which rely on buses especially in South London where the tube network is less extensive and where the train network is extremely unreliable is absolutely backwards. |
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Post by ilovelondonbuses on Apr 5, 2021 17:58:26 GMT
All very fascinating. So, with all the rumour flying around, I’ve assumed most to be factual (famous last words 😂) and have put together some thought as to what may well ensue... 148/168/453 : gone 45 : extended to Marble Arch via current 148. 3 : cut back/diverted to Elephant from the south. 59 : extended to Hampstead Heath via current 168. 388 : extended to Old Kent Road Tesco via current 21. Possible upping of frequency to 6 bph. 21 : withdrawn Bricklayers Arms - Newington Green, diverted instead to Oxford Circus via current 453. 12 : extended to Marylebone via current 453. 172/188 : exchanging Central London terminals (172 extended to Russell Square, 188 cut back to Aldwych), mainly to maintain a semblance of a link from Kingsway to Old Kent Road. 133 : withdrawn north of London Bridge Station. As always : the caveat that this isn’t what I WANT to happen... Interesting predictions as I do see cross central London routes being the most at risk in this upcoming round of Central London bus cuts. Routes 21, 148 and 168 certainly fits the bill if my hunch is right. Most of your predictions I agree with especially on route 133 being shortened to London Bridge. This would in turn create space for route 78 to be curtailed to Liverpool Street Bus Station which has been on the cards for a long time (along with route 42). However, the 3's diversion to Elephant does not make sense to me as it has a unique section on its northern end in the Lambeth Bridge area alas I guess they could divert route C10 to cover that part. Also, the route 59 idea is a non-starter lol as it would make the route very long, I think however the 168 will be shortened to Aldwych. If route 3 diversion to Elephant happens, I think it puts route 360 at risk. I remember that route in particular was part of 2020-2021 programme then moved 2021-2022 programme and now has been awarded a 2 year extension. I think route 360 could be curtailed to Lambeth North or Vauxhall possibly. |
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 5, 2021 18:19:30 GMT
It's going to be fascinating (and quite probably infuriating) to see what TfL come up with. The 59/168 idea mentioned above by twobellstogo is not one I'd heard. This is a twobellstogo guess and as such is to be treated with a great deal of scepticism as it is based on guesswork and a faulty crystal ball 😂😉 |
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 5, 2021 18:39:28 GMT
Also, the route 59 idea is a non-starter lol as it would make the route very long, I think however the 168 will be shortened to Aldwych. Would it? If routes such as the 88 can exist, I don’t think it’s at all beyond the realms of possibility to see the 59 replace the northern end of the 168. The only other possibility as I see it would be the 68, but that is already both lengthy and slow so probably not likely to be considered for any further extension. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 5, 2021 19:16:07 GMT
Also, the route 59 idea is a non-starter lol as it would make the route very long, I think however the 168 will be shortened to Aldwych. Would it? If routes such as the 88 can exist, I don’t think it’s at all beyond the realms of possibility to see the 59 replace the northern end of the 168. The only other possibility as I see it would be the 68, but that is already both lengthy and slow so probably not likely to be considered for any further extension. Its only 19 mins from Euston to Hampstead heath so a journey time of around 75 mins would be manageable. |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 5, 2021 20:03:59 GMT
Also, the route 59 idea is a non-starter lol as it would make the route very long, I think however the 168 will be shortened to Aldwych. Would it? If routes such as the 88 can exist, I don’t think it’s at all beyond the realms of possibility to see the 59 replace the northern end of the 168. The only other possibility as I see it would be the 68, but that is already both lengthy and slow so probably not likely to be considered for any further extension. That is the same 88 that easily falls apart whenever there is disruption, ironic how TfL all of a sudden supposedly wants to remove cross London links yet insists on persisting with the 88 among others like the equally prone to disruption 11. I’d prefer it if the 59 wasn’t extended because no doubt the southern end would bear the impact regardless of the extra 19 minutes off peak running time which we must remember is best case scenario - traffic has increased along the A23 since the LTN’s and whilst large chunks have bus lanes, there are still bottlenecks that cause problems. The 68 is similar as you mention though I’m happy to concede it has more running time end to end than the 59 |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 5, 2021 20:45:33 GMT
Another option could be to extend the 27 to Hampstead Heath to atleast maintain the link from HH to Belsize Park and Camden Town and leave the 253 to Euston then the rest to the 59/68/91/188 with the 388 down to Tesco.
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Post by twobellstogo on Apr 5, 2021 22:15:41 GMT
Would it? If routes such as the 88 can exist, I don’t think it’s at all beyond the realms of possibility to see the 59 replace the northern end of the 168. The only other possibility as I see it would be the 68, but that is already both lengthy and slow so probably not likely to be considered for any further extension. That is the same 88 that easily falls apart whenever there is disruption, ironic how TfL all of a sudden supposedly wants to remove cross London links yet insists on persisting with the 88 among others like the equally prone to disruption 11. I’d prefer it if the 59 wasn’t extended because no doubt the southern end would bear the impact regardless of the extra 19 minutes off peak running time which we must remember is best case scenario - traffic has increased along the A23 since the LTN’s and whilst large chunks have bus lanes, there are still bottlenecks that cause problems. The 68 is similar as you mention though I’m happy to concede it has more running time end to end than the 59 I’m very unsure that it’s good to extend the 59, I just think it’s a distinct possibility. Re. the 11 - I think maybe sending the 9 to the City would be better. Fulham - Aldwych is actually timetabled to take longer than Hammersmith - Aldwych, plus the 9 doesn’t have to cope with Parliament Square when the invariable protests occur. |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 5, 2021 22:41:15 GMT
That is the same 88 that easily falls apart whenever there is disruption, ironic how TfL all of a sudden supposedly wants to remove cross London links yet insists on persisting with the 88 among others like the equally prone to disruption 11. I’d prefer it if the 59 wasn’t extended because no doubt the southern end would bear the impact regardless of the extra 19 minutes off peak running time which we must remember is best case scenario - traffic has increased along the A23 since the LTN’s and whilst large chunks have bus lanes, there are still bottlenecks that cause problems. The 68 is similar as you mention though I’m happy to concede it has more running time end to end than the 59 I’m very unsure that it’s good to extend the 59, I just think it’s a distinct possibility. Re. the 11 - I think maybe sending the 9 to the City would be better. Fulham - Aldwych is actually timetabled to take longer than Hammersmith - Aldwych, plus the 9 doesn’t have to cope with Parliament Square when the invariable protests occur. I think that's fair regarding the 11 - my own idea would be to simply split it and reintroduce the 311 number they originally were going to use with the 11 running from Liverpool Street to Victoria & the 311 from Fulham Broadway to Trafalgar Square. Whilst I wouldn't be in favour of it, I could see a situation where this split becomes reality (subject to King's Road not flexing their muscles) but that the 311 runs over the 507 leaving it as a Fulham Broadway to Waterloo route. |
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Post by enviroPB on Apr 6, 2021 0:08:51 GMT
Would it? If routes such as the 88 can exist, I don’t think it’s at all beyond the realms of possibility to see the 59 replace the northern end of the 168. The only other possibility as I see it would be the 68, but that is already both lengthy and slow so probably not likely to be considered for any further extension. That is the same 88 that easily falls apart whenever there is disruption, ironic how TfL all of a sudden supposedly wants to remove cross London links yet insists on persisting with the 88 among others like the equally prone to disruption 11. I’d prefer it if the 59 wasn’t extended because no doubt the southern end would bear the impact regardless of the extra 19 minutes off peak running time which we must remember is best case scenario - traffic has increased along the A23 since the LTN’s and whilst large chunks have bus lanes, there are still bottlenecks that cause problems. The 68 is similar as you mention though I’m happy to concede it has more running time end to end than the 59 Unless the 59 moves out of BN, the service is always going to be lob sided as the southern part of the route is where the driver changeovers happen. I do agree with your earlier point though that TfL can't keep on making 'mega routes' with long journey times in place of shorter, more reliable routes. The blessing in this curse is that cross City routes should be more in numbers as a result, which isn't too bad considering the decimation of bus travel in the West End in particular. |
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