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Post by wirewiper on Apr 5, 2021 11:14:47 GMT
So 16% of mileage is alot more then the 4% initially thought and way beyond a few freq reductions it would seem. To put it in some context, 16% equates to about one bus in six. This seems in line earlier statements that around 25 Central London routes could reduce from typically 8bph to 6bph. What seems to be emerging now is that there may also be some rejigging of the network in Central and Inner London to reduce excess capacity on certain corridors, this is what appears to be attracting the speculation. |
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Post by SILENCED on Apr 5, 2021 11:24:21 GMT
So 16% of mileage is alot more then the 4% initially thought and way beyond a few freq reductions it would seem. To put it in some context, 16% equates to about one bus in six. This seems in line earlier statements that around 25 Central London routes could reduce from typically 8bph to 6bph. What seems to be emerging now is that there may also be some rejigging of the network in Central and Inner London to reduce excess capacity on certain corridors, this is what appears to be attracting the speculation. Plus you also need to remember this is a net figure, so if the 45 does get an extension and a pvr increase, this increase will need to be added to the pvr total that needs to be chopped. |
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Post by snowman on Apr 5, 2021 11:26:18 GMT
A prediction from me - TfL will utilise this consultation (for central & inner area changes) to finally advance previously stated aspirations to split/truncate routes like the 11, 19, 188, 341. Also wonder if the previously aspired express bus route along the Old Kent Road will progress as a means of cutting the 53 and 453 back as well as providing a sort of X15-esque service in advance of the Bakerloo Line extension (if it ever happens) I do agree with the prediction. It is simply lot easier to announce say 30 cuts, then pare it back to 25 than to announce 20 and have to add a few more later. Partly psychological, those against cuts think they have concessions. Partly simpler, get all the bad news in one go, rather than having to do it in two instalments which extends the flak against them The Bakerloo extension is now on long term hold (except route safeguarding still going ahead). Old Kent Road is an unusual one, at one end, Elephant & Castle already have tube and recently enhanced Thameslink. At Bermondsey end have recently enhanced Overground and DLR Lewisham line. So you are more serving the bit between with buses. However it rather suggests the bus becomes a shuttle to the rail based services each end, so I struggle to see an express bus added in current climate, even if other routes shortened. |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 5, 2021 11:41:29 GMT
A prediction from me - TfL will utilise this consultation (for central & inner area changes) to finally advance previously stated aspirations to split/truncate routes like the 11, 19, 188, 341. Also wonder if the previously aspired express bus route along the Old Kent Road will progress as a means of cutting the 53 and 453 back as well as providing a sort of X15-esque service in advance of the Bakerloo Line extension (if it ever happens) I do agree with the prediction. It is simply lot easier to announce say 30 cuts, then pare it back to 25 than to announce 20 and have to add a few more later. Partly psychological, those against cuts think they have concessions. Partly simpler, get all the bad news in one go, rather than having to do it in two instalments which extends the flak against them The Bakerloo extension is now on long term hold (except route safeguarding still going ahead). Old Kent Road is an unusual one, at one end, Elephant & Castle already have tube and recently enhanced Thameslink. At Bermondsey end have recently enhanced Overground and DLR Lewisham line. So you are more serving the bit between with buses. However it rather suggests the bus becomes a shuttle to the rail based services each end, so I struggle to see an express bus added in current climate, even if other routes shortened. If that’s what the plan is for Old Kent Road, then they are very confused because Old Kent Road is a lengthy road with a mix of residential use, large retail use as well as smaller shops none of which are walking distance to any station hence the bigger demand in buses. I hardly think anyone takes a train and then a bus to access anything along there, most use a bus or drive there currently so all they’ll do is likely drive people to cars or they’ll shop elsewhere Pedanticly speaking, Bermondsey just borders onto the Old Kent Road but New Cross is the actual true end and neither place has the DLR. I suspect your hinting at Lewisham in that respect but that’s an entirely different subject |
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Post by vjaska on Apr 5, 2021 14:23:11 GMT
So 16% of mileage is alot more then the 4% initially thought as way beyond a few freq reductions it would seem. That's just 16% in Central and Inner London. That was always the intention. London wide it's 4% Whilst I can understand Central London facing some sort of cut, Inner London should not be hit so hard. It’s great Outer London is getting some investment but it backwards thinking to do it at the expense of Inner London routes |
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Post by george on Apr 5, 2021 14:30:26 GMT
Latest rumour (from a more credible source this time) is that the 388 will be extended to Old Kent Road Tescos. Apologies but don't understand how you can get all this inside information when you don't work for TfL (unless that has changed). Not having a go but anyone else posting these kind of thinge whether they work for TfL or not will have people on here telling them they shouldn't be posting information like that. I'm sure we all like hearing about all these things but the rules have to be for everyone. Jmo. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2021 14:54:40 GMT
If the 388 route is changed again I really think it should be relaunched as a brand new route with a new number. The amount of inserts fitted to the buses is almost funny when you see the blind changes.
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Post by TB123 on Apr 5, 2021 15:00:14 GMT
Latest rumour (from a more credible source this time) is that the 388 will be extended to Old Kent Road Tescos. Apologies but don't understand how you can get all this inside information when you don't work for TfL (unless that has changed). Not having a go but anyone else posting these kind of thinge whether they work for TfL or not will have people on here telling them they shouldn't be posting information like that. I'm sure we all like hearing about all these things but the rules have to be for everyone. Jmo. It's not "inside information", it's a *rumour* that I saw on another site - and I *always* clearly state such if I post anything on such lines, as I did in this case. As was the case with the business about the 3 being diverted to Elephant. Any confidential information I'm in possession of on a personal or professional basis stays that way - confidential. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Apr 5, 2021 15:02:12 GMT
Apologies but don't understand how you can get all this inside information when you don't work for TfL (unless that has changed). Not having a go but anyone else posting these kind of thinge whether they work for TfL or not will have people on here telling them they shouldn't be posting information like that. I'm sure we all like hearing about all these things but the rules have to be for everyone. Jmo. It's not inside information, it's a *rumour* that I saw on another site - and I *always* clearly state such if I post anything on such lines, as I did in this case. As was the case with the business about the 3 being diverted to Elephant. Any confidential information I'm in possession of on a personal or professional basis stays that way - confidential. Out of interest, what's this site? I'm not doubting you in any way. |
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Post by TB123 on Apr 5, 2021 15:02:43 GMT
It's not inside information, it's a *rumour* that I saw on another site - and I *always* clearly state such if I post anything on such lines, as I did in this case. As was the case with the business about the 3 being diverted to Elephant. Any confidential information I'm in possession of on a personal or professional basis stays that way - confidential. Out of interest, what's this site? I'm not doubting you in any way. Someone said about it on Twitter. And even then it was posted as a rumour that had been spreading. The person who posted it however is an industry colleague |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 5, 2021 15:04:53 GMT
If the 388 route is changed again I really think it should be relaunched as a brand new route with a new number. The amount of inserts fitted to the buses is almost funny when you see the blind changes. I was going to say this, it's hilarious seeing how long the blind scroll at Stratford is. The 23 has a similar situation where the blind scroll lasts for ages. |
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Post by george on Apr 5, 2021 15:23:17 GMT
Apologies but don't understand how you can get all this inside information when you don't work for TfL (unless that has changed). Not having a go but anyone else posting these kind of thinge whether they work for TfL or not will have people on here telling them they shouldn't be posting information like that. I'm sure we all like hearing about all these things but the rules have to be for everyone. Jmo. It's not "inside information", it's a *rumour* that I saw on another site - and I *always* clearly state such if I post anything on such lines, as I did in this case. As was the case with the business about the 3 being diverted to Elephant. Any confidential information I'm in possession of on a personal or professional basis stays that way - confidential. Ok thank you for clarifying that. I know you're a credible source hence why I thought this was inside information apologises on my front 👍. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Apr 5, 2021 16:16:39 GMT
For me personally most the rumours that have emerged have had some credibility as they are similar to what TFL have done in the past. For me the 43 cutback, 148/45 are all credible which just made me think there 'may' be some truth in them.
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Post by snowman on Apr 5, 2021 16:20:38 GMT
That's just 16% in Central and Inner London. That was always the intention. London wide it's 4% Whilst I can understand Central London facing some sort of cut, Inner London should not be hit so hard. It’s great Outer London is getting some investment but it backwards thinking to do it at the expense of Inner London routes I think it the direct effect of policies of City Corporation and Westminster Council, along with TfLs cycle superhighway team. Over the last 30 years they have blocked off side turnings along loads of bus routes, this has forced other vehicles onto the bus routes slowing them down and making the bus service unattractive. Using a personal example when I first commuted into Liverpool Street in late 1980s, some staff took bus to Fleet Street, 10 mins peak, 5 mins back in mid evening after couple of drinks at pub. Similarly some doing it by bus in just over 10 mins from Waterloo. When I tried it about 2 years ago (pre Lockdown) took more like 20 minutes. Now just too slow. Add to that the capacity of tube has increased (it was still 59 and 62 tube stock then, manually driven, and with guards) and it shows the alternative (tube) has moved on, whilst bus has deteriorated. So now buses in Central London carry too much fresh air. Why subsidise moving fresh air when they are passengers to move elsewhere. |
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Post by enviroPB on Apr 5, 2021 16:29:59 GMT
Apologies but don't understand how you can get all this inside information when you don't work for TfL (unless that has changed). Not having a go but anyone else posting these kind of thinge whether they work for TfL or not will have people on here telling them they shouldn't be posting information like that. I'm sure we all like hearing about all these things but the rules have to be for everyone. Jmo. It's not "inside information", it's a *rumour* that I saw on another site - and I *always* clearly state such if I post anything on such lines, as I did in this case. As was the case with the business about the 3 being diverted to Elephant. Any confidential information I'm in possession of on a personal or professional basis stays that way - confidential. If plans to extend the 388 to Old Kent Road do materialise, then that would naturally suggest this is a recompense to a cut elsewhere. The 388 is almost certainly going to mirror the 21 to Tesco's. There's a banned right turn from New Kent Road onto Newington Causeway, so going through Elephant is out of the question. It does give merit to the 21 being reduced in frequency though, and coupled with the 43 proposed to be cut at Moorgate, that's quite a heavy slash to the Old Street-Moorgate-Bank stretch. |
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