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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 16:30:53 GMT
Following the confirmation today that TfL intend to cut bus mileage by around 4% between now and 2024/5, I thought this would be an interesting thread to discuss any possible changes that may arise from this or to discuss places where cuts could well be made
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Post by lundnah on Jan 15, 2021 17:29:29 GMT
Before the speculataholics get started, the Evening Standard is reporting...
"Cutting bus services by four per cent by 2024/25, mainly by reducing 25 routes in central London from eight buses an hour to six"
So, your guesswork and supposition should be focused on central London, not picking off lesser used routes in the suburbs.
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 17:30:59 GMT
Before the speculataholics get started, the Evening Standard is reporting...
"Cutting bus services by four per cent by 2024/25, mainly by reducing 25 routes in central London from eight buses an hour to six"
So, your guesswork and supposition should be focused on central London, not picking off lesser used routes in the suburbs.
And indeed the TfL document says there will continue to be restructuring in outer London to improve connections and efficiency. They estimate a 1% rise in outer London demand compared to a 14% drop in central over the next 10 years. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 17:33:20 GMT
Before the speculataholics get started, the Evening Standard is reporting...
"Cutting bus services by four per cent by 2024/25, mainly by reducing 25 routes in central London from eight buses an hour to six"
So, your guesswork and supposition should be focused on central London, not picking off lesser used routes in the suburbs.
And indeed the TfL document says there will continue to be restructuring in outer London to improve connections and efficiency. They estimate a 1% rise in outer London demand compared to a 14% drop in central over the next 10 years. Though the document also says the reduction in mileage will be achieved through a mixture of frequency cuts and a restructuring in central London, and that 25 routes have been identified for cuts in frequently with that being the average. Its not very well written by the standard |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 15, 2021 17:39:58 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins.
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Post by SILENCED on Jan 15, 2021 17:44:04 GMT
And indeed the TfL document says there will continue to be restructuring in outer London to improve connections and efficiency. They estimate a 1% rise in outer London demand compared to a 14% drop in central over the next 10 years. Though the document also says the reduction in mileage will be achieved through a mixture of frequency cuts and a restructuring in central London, and that 25 routes have been identified for cuts in frequently with that being the average. Its not very well written by the standard So an average pvr drop of 12 ... can only be so many routes that can take a cut of around about that lvl .... a cut from 8bph to 6bph, should see a 25% pvr reduction ... so on average, the need a pvr of 48. Do we really have that many routes with a pvr of that size to cut? Any central London route with a pvr of 40+ is getting a 25% cut off pvr it would seem. Sure someone has a convenient list of the top pvrs in Central London, unfortunately I don’t. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 17:47:32 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. Can't see that happening given it's a politically sensitive area. And also, it would be at odds with the Mayoral strategy of increasing public transport modal share in outer London. I do see some efficiencies being made in outer London, but more along the line of the recent proposals in Croydon/Sutton - resources essentially redistributed according to the supply and demand of an individual route or corridor. That makes sense. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 17:48:40 GMT
Though the document also says the reduction in mileage will be achieved through a mixture of frequency cuts and a restructuring in central London, and that 25 routes have been identified for cuts in frequently with that being the average. Its not very well written by the standard So an average pvr drop of 12 ... can only be so many routes that can take a cut of around about that lvl .... a cut from 8bph to 6bph, should see a 25% pvr reduction ... so on average, the need a pvr of 48. Do we really have that many routes with a pvr of that size to cut? Any central London route with a pvr of 40+ is getting a 25% cut off pvr it would seem. Sure someone has a convenient list of the top pvrs in Central London, unfortunately I don’t. Don't think we have any routes with a PVR of above 43 now following the cut on the 38. I can't see those 25 central area routes accounting for all of that 4% drop in mileage. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2021 17:54:34 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. Can't see that happening given it's a politically sensitive area. And also, it would be at odds with the Mayoral strategy of increasing public transport modal share in outer London. I do see some efficiencies being made in outer London, but more along the line of the recent proposals in Croydon/Sutton - resources essentially redistributed according to the supply and demand of an individual route or corridor. That makes sense. I would agree, there will be plenty of areas like Sutton/Croydon that need their networks updating, tweaked and restructured to better serve local communities. This could be achieved with only minor PVR increases. |
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Post by wirewiper on Jan 15, 2021 17:57:18 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. I'm not so sure about that - there has been an increasing amount of night-time activity in certain suburban centres in recent years, especially in areas with concentrations of students (Kingston especially comes to mind) and I would expect these night-time economies to grow back stronger than the West End. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 17:58:00 GMT
Can't see that happening given it's a politically sensitive area. And also, it would be at odds with the Mayoral strategy of increasing public transport modal share in outer London. I do see some efficiencies being made in outer London, but more along the line of the recent proposals in Croydon/Sutton - resources essentially redistributed according to the supply and demand of an individual route or corridor. That makes sense. I would agree, there will be plenty of areas like Sutton/Croydon that need their networks updating, tweaked and restructured to better serve local communities. This could be achieved with only minor PVR increases. I personally think TfL have done a good job with the proposals for Croydon and Sutton. If they can replicate elsewhere that's a good move. Especially if they can find ways of achieving savings and more coverage/links. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2021 18:30:07 GMT
I would agree, there will be plenty of areas like Sutton/Croydon that need their networks updating, tweaked and restructured to better serve local communities. This could be achieved with only minor PVR increases. I personally think TfL have done a good job with the proposals for Croydon and Sutton. If they can replicate elsewhere that's a good move. Especially if they can find ways of achieving savings and more coverage/links. I would agree, they are surprisingly sensible changes which create and most importantly retain good links. The only one I don’t agree with is the proposed S2 terminating at the prisons. That stop can be busy at times, mostly during visiting times or when some of the female prisoners get day release for work in the local area but obviously not at the moment with COVID, most of the prisoners are locked down. Unless the council or HMPS plan to build a pavement between the prisons and the main road as I don’t recall there being one it could present a problem at times as I believe the S2 will use short buses. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 15, 2021 18:43:49 GMT
Yes I can see the S2 being very well used and struggling at times between Highdown and Sutton Station and needing a 15 min service in time whereas the Sutton to St Helier Station has generally coped ok every 30 mins.
Maybe the S2 could do Belmont to St Helier Station and the 164 to Highdown/Downview. The 164 would likely be a 10 mins SD service versus the 80 DD every 8 mins so still a reduction to the Prisons and the 164 is potentially going to reach Sutton Hospital.
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 19:10:54 GMT
Yes I can see the S2 being very well used and struggling at times between Highdown and Sutton Station and needing a 15 min service in time whereas the Sutton to St Helier Station has generally coped ok every 30 mins. Maybe the S2 could do Belmont to St Helier Station and the 164 to Highdown/Downview. The 164 would likely be a 10 mins SD service versus the 80 DD every 8 mins so still a reduction to the Prisons and the 164 is potentially going to reach Sutton Hospital. The prison doesn't warrant more than 3bph according to their usage data so I can't see that happening. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 15, 2021 19:12:28 GMT
I personally think TfL have done a good job with the proposals for Croydon and Sutton. If they can replicate elsewhere that's a good move. Especially if they can find ways of achieving savings and more coverage/links. I would agree, they are surprisingly sensible changes which create and most importantly retain good links. The only one I don’t agree with is the proposed S2 terminating at the prisons. That stop can be busy at times, mostly during visiting times or when some of the female prisoners get day release for work in the local area but obviously not at the moment with COVID, most of the prisoners are locked down. Unless the council or HMPS plan to build a pavement between the prisons and the main road as I don’t recall there being one it could present a problem at times as I believe the S2 will use short buses. There's a pavement between the Prison and main road. |
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