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Post by capitalomnibus on Aug 7, 2023 9:55:03 GMT
Is this a joke? Have you seen the conservative candidate? Of course the Tories aren't likely to win, but he will split the Labour vote. Besides there will be some people who have never liked Corbyn and never will, so will stick with Khan. Besides, the article doesn't say that he's definitely running. Regardless of whether he does or not I can only see a Khan victory coming. Some may have a short memory, Johnson was not expected to win in 2008 against Livingstone, but he did. Also when Livingstone initially run as an independent, they had forecast Frank Dobson to win, because he had the Labour party backing. It was also showing Livingstone coming close, and the later polls I remember predicted Livingstone to win, but it did not show Dobson would have done poorly. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Aug 7, 2023 12:19:07 GMT
Of course the Tories aren't likely to win, but he will split the Labour vote. Besides there will be some people who have never liked Corbyn and never will, so will stick with Khan. Besides, the article doesn't say that he's definitely running. Regardless of whether he does or not I can only see a Khan victory coming. Some may have a short memory, Johnson was not expected to win in 2008 against Livingstone, but he did. Also when Livingstone initially run as an independent, they had forecast Frank Dobson to win, because he had the Labour party backing. It was also showing Livingstone coming close, and the later polls I remember predicted Livingstone to win, but it did not show Dobson would have done poorly. However in 2008 the Tory Party was going from strength to strength and Labour were falling apart. This is now a very different situation in a City that now leans Labour more than ever since the 2015 elections and the Conservatives in complete turmoil. Why would anyone vote for a party in crisis that they'd have probably not even voted for on a good day? |
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Post by redbus on Aug 7, 2023 12:43:12 GMT
Some may have a short memory, Johnson was not expected to win in 2008 against Livingstone, but he did. Also when Livingstone initially run as an independent, they had forecast Frank Dobson to win, because he had the Labour party backing. It was also showing Livingstone coming close, and the later polls I remember predicted Livingstone to win, but it did not show Dobson would have done poorly. However in 2008 the Tory Party was going from strength to strength and Labour were falling apart. This is now a very different situation in a City that now leans Labour more than ever since the 2015 elections and the Conservatives in complete turmoil. Why would anyone vote for a party in crisis that they'd have probably not even voted for on a good day? I don't think it is that simple. I think Khan is quite beatable by the right candidate irrespective of the general popularity of the Tories at present. Whether Hall is that right candidate remains to be seen, but I think there is all to play for. There are also some elephants in the room compared to the last election. This time the vote is first past the post so there are no second preferences. Khan got 400,000 second preference votes last time, will people make him first preference preference this time or will he effectively lose those votes. Same applies to Hall, only last time the Tories has about 1/2 the second preference votes that Khan managed. Khan is also vulnerable on a number of issues where he may lose popularity, it will be interesting to see to what extent Hall can exploit this. It is a big goal for the right candidate, whether Hall is that candidate remains to be seen. It Corbyn entered the race he would only take away votes from Khan, potentially in sufficient numbers to mean that Hall could sneak through on first past the post. If I were Khan I would be very nervous of Corbyn entering the race for that reason. |
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Post by northlondon83 on Aug 7, 2023 12:50:10 GMT
However in 2008 the Tory Party was going from strength to strength and Labour were falling apart. This is now a very different situation in a City that now leans Labour more than ever since the 2015 elections and the Conservatives in complete turmoil. Why would anyone vote for a party in crisis that they'd have probably not even voted for on a good day? I don't think it is that simple. I think Khan is quite beatable by the right candidate irrespective of the general popularity of the Tories at present. Whether Hall is that right candidate remains to be seen, but I think there is all to play for. There are also some elephants in the room compared to the last election. This time the vote is first past the post so there are no second preferences. Khan got 400,000 second preference votes last time, will people make him first preference preference this time or will he effectively lose those votes. Same applies to Hall, only last time the Tories has about 1/2 the second preference votes that Khan managed. Khan is also vulnerable on a number of issues where he may lose popularity, it will be interesting to see to what extent Hall can exploit this. It is a big goal for the right candidate, whether Hall is that candidate remains to be seen. It Corbyn entered the race he would only take away votes from Khan, potentially in sufficient numbers to mean that Hall could sneak through on first past the post. If I were Khan I would be very nervous of Corbyn entering the race for that reason. Corbyn will also attract a lot of voters in his constituency in Islington. Possibly in neighbouring boroughs too. I do wonder whether his brother is running... |
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Post by someone on Aug 7, 2023 13:31:35 GMT
Can't we move all the 2024 election talk to a new thread?
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Post by SILENCED on Aug 7, 2023 13:42:03 GMT
Can't we move all the 2024 election talk to a new thread? We don't need loads of threads on the subject, just remove the date from the heading |
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Post by northlondon83 on Aug 7, 2023 15:03:47 GMT
Regarding Jeremy Corbyn it's important to remember that he did really badly in the election in 2019 although this is different as London is a Labour voting city. He'll definitely take votes off Khan and there's still the possiblity that Labour/Corbyn will be split allowing the Tories to win. There's still a few areas in London I can see voting Tory like Bromley, parts of Bexley borough, most of Havering. Hillingdon is very marginal these days however I can see them leaning towards Tory
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Post by southlondonbus on Aug 7, 2023 15:34:10 GMT
Regarding Jeremy Corbyn it's important to remember that he did really badly in the election in 2019 although this is different as London is a Labour voting city. He'll definitely take votes off Khan and there's still the possiblity that Labour/Corbyn will be split allowing the Tories to win. There's still a few areas in London I can see voting Tory like Bromley, parts of Bexley borough, most of Havering. Hillingdon is very marginal these days however I can see them leaning towards Tory As iv said before he only 'won' with 228k votes. Even if only 50k people in outer London decide this time to actually come out and vote for the Tory candidate due to the ULEZ, Corbyn only has to take around 180k votes which is to tip the split in favour of ousting Khan. |
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Post by northlondon83 on Aug 23, 2023 10:20:58 GMT
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 23, 2023 10:38:20 GMT
Funny how all the calls in this article calling for him to resign come from prominent right-wingers. Not that i would expect any better from the Daily Express (and yes, I did force myself to read the article). |
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Post by northlondon83 on Aug 23, 2023 10:41:48 GMT
Funny how all the calls in this article calling for him to resign come from prominent right-wingers. Not that i would expect any better from the Daily Express (and yes, I did force myself to read the article). The problem is that there's double standards regarding racism in this country, if a white person said that about a coloured family, it would be considered much more controversial. I don't think that he should resign based on this issue but at the same time he shouldn't have posted that comment. |
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Post by greenboy on Aug 23, 2023 10:48:01 GMT
Funny how all the calls in this article calling for him to resign come from prominent right-wingers. Not that i would expect any better from the Daily Express (and yes, I did force myself to read the article). And no doubt there would be similar outrage from left wingers if Rishi or Boris had said something similar? |
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 23, 2023 11:01:06 GMT
Funny how all the calls in this article calling for him to resign come from prominent right-wingers. Not that i would expect any better from the Daily Express (and yes, I did force myself to read the article). The problem is that there's double standards regarding racism in this country, if a white person said that about a coloured family, it would be considered much more controversial. I don't think that he should resign based on this issue but at the same time he shouldn't have posted that comment. He didn't post the comment, it was added by a staff member (as reported in the Express article). The document has been taken down and is being reviewed. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Aug 23, 2023 11:42:04 GMT
The problem is that there's double standards regarding racism in this country, if a white person said that about a coloured family, it would be considered much more controversial. I don't think that he should resign based on this issue but at the same time he shouldn't have posted that comment. He didn't post the comment, it was added by a staff member (as reported in the Express article). The document has been taken down and is being reviewed. Irrelevant, he is fully responsible for everything posted in his name. It’s an entirely racist view and wouldn’t be tolerated if aimed at him or anyone else of colour. So why should it be tolerated here? |
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 23, 2023 12:37:48 GMT
He didn't post the comment, it was added by a staff member (as reported in the Express article). The document has been taken down and is being reviewed. Irrelevant, he is fully responsible for everything posted in his name. It’s an entirely racist view and wouldn’t be tolerated if aimed at him or anyone else of colour. So why should it be tolerated here? It's not irrelevant at all. If you take the view that he is responsible for everything posted in his name, then he has done the right thing in getting the document taken down and reviewed, and issuing a statement that this is not his view, or that of the London Assembly. |
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