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Post by TB123 on Dec 31, 2021 14:11:38 GMT
I posted this last year (for 2021) and found it a really fascinating thread - so I thought I'd do it again now - your predictions for the year ahead (2022), be that for the London bus network or society more generally!
I'll post mine a bit later on but would be very interested to hear those of others
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Post by vjaska on Dec 31, 2021 14:47:08 GMT
Same as last year - TfL continue to needlessly cut the network to pieces rather than introduce actual pro bus policies.
One more positive one - Crossrail is open by May and becomes a success.
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Post by MKAY315 on Dec 31, 2021 15:27:02 GMT
Same as last year - TfL continue to needlessly cut the network to pieces rather than introduce actual pro bus policies. One more positive one - Crossrail is open by May and becomes a success. You got any particular routes on the hitlist? |
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Post by MKAY315 on Dec 31, 2021 15:32:29 GMT
The 271 may occur, The results coming out surrounding the 366, 62, 368 and 145.
The 78 result coming out. I think that's going to be a retain by Arriva. Not sure if it will be existing buses or it will join the electric line.
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Dec 31, 2021 15:44:41 GMT
- A few more Central London bus route consultations, probably proposing to withdraw two or three more routes.
- Delays in charging infrastructure instalment for C and TF.
- Another operator's drivers going on strike (or at least threatening it)
- Route 384 converting to single door buses.
- A full LT conversion for the H32 and H98.
- Few operator changes on tender, with shocking results for the 57 and 86.
- No new routes introduced and the 497 withdrawn.
- The 119 and 264 getting London's first batch of Equipmake/Beulas buses.
And now for some less bus related ones:
- Fourth covid jabs for all!
- A new covid variant appearing in the spring.
- Another government scandal exposed (like with the refurbs/the parties).
- The plan for Hammersmith Bridge to be reopened in 2023 gets the go-ahead.
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Post by WH241 on Dec 31, 2021 16:11:43 GMT
A few from me :
Tower Transit will remain operating from LI.
Route 15 will be cut but merged with another route and the number 15 used on the new route which will still serve Tower Hill.
Tenders due to be announced in 2022
Route 147 will be gained by Stagecoach using new electric buses from WH.
Route 325 will be retained by Arriva using new electric buses from DX.
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Post by twobellstogo on Dec 31, 2021 19:28:21 GMT
Going to be I think a bit of a covid-y year again : maybe (probably?) not anything like 2020, or even 2021, but it’s still going to hit the news headlines.
Overall though, I think a better year is in prospect.
Bus wise : won’t be great I don’t think, particularly in inner London. More route withdrawals and mergers likely to be on the cards : the 1/168/188 and 21 etc schemes will be implemented as they currently stand, and more schemes will be put on the table. Where - not sure. Would say the Commercial Road corridor, the inner stretch of the A23 and the Edgware Road might come in for ‘treatment’, and as for outer London change proposals, I think Walthamstow, Uxbridge and Kingston might get proposals in the way Croydon has had in the recent past.
Whatever happens, have a great new year 🎉
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Post by busoccultation on Dec 31, 2021 19:46:09 GMT
Stagecoach to win a route in East London from another operator for something that is starting a new contract in 2023.
Tower Transit to sell or create a new partnership (like RATP with X) for LI.
Plenty of routing changes in the Zone 1/2 parts of London mainly on the reductions.
Another set of short term loans with the buses involving different operators.
More electric odd workings than we had in 2021.
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Post by VMH2537 on Dec 31, 2021 20:01:22 GMT
These are mine as follows :
. A revised development paper for Meridian Water will be published with a possible consultation by the end of the year in light of the first phase of the development.
. A consultation on bus services serving the new Brent Cross West Station.
. A confirmation of Route 24 restructuring potentially axing it's existing routing and revised to route elsewhere involving changes to Routes 102, 144 and 603.
. Detailed information published for the "Future bus project", aswell a list of certain routes that will be trialled with a new spec interior of the busses.
. Route 23 to be revised to run every 12 minutes at peak hours with the N23 axed.
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Post by WH241 on Dec 31, 2021 20:19:10 GMT
A few more from me:
Elizabeth Line will be open by the summer at the very latest.
The 304 will be introduced at the same time as the South Newham changes take place. The 330 and 474 changes will also take place at the same time.
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Post by TB123 on Dec 31, 2021 20:22:51 GMT
Stagecoach to win a route in East London from another operator for something that is starting a new contract in 2023. Tower Transit to sell or create a new partnership (like RATP with X) for LI. Plenty of routing changes in the Zone 1/2 parts of London mainly on the reductions. Another set of short term loans with the buses involving different operators. More electric odd workings than we had in 2021. I even wonder if Tower could do similar to the London Transit tie-up by teaming up with Stagecoach. Similar to the LT one, it consolidates their position as leading operator in the area and allows economies in a declining market. |
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Post by WH241 on Dec 31, 2021 20:29:49 GMT
Stagecoach to win a route in East London from another operator for something that is starting a new contract in 2023. Tower Transit to sell or create a new partnership (like RATP with X) for LI. Plenty of routing changes in the Zone 1/2 parts of London mainly on the reductions. Another set of short term loans with the buses involving different operators. More electric odd workings than we had in 2021. I even wonder if Tower could do similar to the London Transit tie-up by teaming up with Stagecoach. Similar to the LT one, it consolidates their position as leading operator in the area and allows economies in a declining market. The Stagecoach merger will be taking place next year so wonder would they really be in a position to be looking at another partnership. Nothing wrong with TT carrying on as they are, there are other smaller operators in London (Sullivans and HCT). |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Dec 31, 2021 20:36:08 GMT
Stagecoach to win a route in East London from another operator for something that is starting a new contract in 2023. Tower Transit to sell or create a new partnership (like RATP with X) for LI. Plenty of routing changes in the Zone 1/2 parts of London mainly on the reductions. Another set of short term loans with the buses involving different operators. More electric odd workings than we had in 2021. I even wonder if Tower could do similar to the London Transit tie-up by teaming up with Stagecoach. Similar to the LT one, it consolidates their position as leading operator in the area and allows economies in a declining market. Would that be legal? Tower Transit would arguably be operating as one huge company from their end while Stagecoach and RATP have mini divisions. It could be a conflict of interest when routes like the 30 and 205 come up where both operators could probably feasibly bid from both X and LI. However on that note Tower Transit did mention they'd hope for a similar deal for LI to be announced the same time the X one is finalised. This does back up your Stagecoach theory, but could also be with Go Ahead or Arriva as other major operators in the area. But the question is would operators like Go Ahead want to be part of a partnership where they don't own 100%? Although going back to the NatEx/Stagecoach merger it does bring up more for LI. If NatEx have leased a portion of LI direct from the leaseholder then it will give National Express control of that portion for Stagecoach's services too. Maybe we could see a case where Stagecoach actively start using LI themselves should that happen. |
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Post by TB123 on Dec 31, 2021 20:48:40 GMT
I even wonder if Tower could do similar to the London Transit tie-up by teaming up with Stagecoach. Similar to the LT one, it consolidates their position as leading operator in the area and allows economies in a declining market. Would that be legal? Tower Transit would arguably be operating as one huge company from their end while Stagecoach and RATP have mini divisions. It could be a conflict of interest when routes like the 30 and 205 come up where both operators could probably feasibly bid from both X and LI. However on that note Tower Transit did mention they'd hope for a similar deal for LI to be announced the same time the X one is finalised. This does back up your Stagecoach theory, but could also be with Go Ahead or Arriva as other major operators in the area. But the question is would operators like Go Ahead want to be part of a partnership where they don't own 100%? Although going back to the NatEx/Stagecoach merger it does bring up more for LI. If NatEx have leased a portion of LI direct from the leaseholder then it will give National Express control of that portion for Stagecoach's services too. Maybe we could see a case where Stagecoach actively start using LI themselves should that happen. Provided they were run as two completely separate legal entities as Tower LI and London Transit are I'm sure it would be completely feasible. |
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Post by TB123 on Dec 31, 2021 20:53:11 GMT
I even wonder if Tower could do similar to the London Transit tie-up by teaming up with Stagecoach. Similar to the LT one, it consolidates their position as leading operator in the area and allows economies in a declining market. Would that be legal? Tower Transit would arguably be operating as one huge company from their end while Stagecoach and RATP have mini divisions. It could be a conflict of interest when routes like the 30 and 205 come up where both operators could probably feasibly bid from both X and LI. However on that note Tower Transit did mention they'd hope for a similar deal for LI to be announced the same time the X one is finalised. This does back up your Stagecoach theory, but could also be with Go Ahead or Arriva as other major operators in the area. But the question is would operators like Go Ahead want to be part of a partnership where they don't own 100%? Although going back to the NatEx/Stagecoach merger it does bring up more for LI. If NatEx have leased a portion of LI direct from the leaseholder then it will give National Express control of that portion for Stagecoach's services too. Maybe we could see a case where Stagecoach actively start using LI themselves should that happen. Mention Stagecoach for a couple reasons. Two, their market share has declined in the last ten years as cheaper rivals have arrived in East London. They also have a general over supply of garage space when you include WH, and the potential for relocation/redevelopment of Leyton garage which I believe is freehold. Similar has been the case for RATP and Tower in West London, although they've chosen to just mothball a garage rather than redevelop |
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