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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jan 8, 2022 3:54:48 GMT
Quite honestly other than a few enthusiasts I don't think anybody much cares about the 24, or indeed the 15 for that matter. As you say the drastic situation means nothing is safe. Think you are very wrong about the 24 and can imagine a lot of attention if it was proposed for withdrawal. I can see a route 13 type of renumbering if anything was to happen. No one cares about the 15? Find that funny as you used to be fairly focal about the 15h withdrawal. A way to withdraw but keep route 24 could be as follows: 24 Withdrawn between Victoria and Pimlico. Diverted at Camden Town to Wood Green. Reallocated to Arriva (WN) and converted to HV operation. 27 Diverted at Camden Town to Hampstead Heath via current route 24. 29 Withdrawn, or effectively extended back to Victoria and renumbered 24. 507 Extended from Victoria to Pimlico. These changes would be timed to coincide with the expiry of a current Abellio tender, or even the expiry of another tender that could be handed to Abellio as compensation. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Jan 8, 2022 9:42:17 GMT
Arriva finally sold, to an existing transport operator that would cut it up or to a new entity that would keep the company the same as it is, but get rid of more of the lost making operations. More cuts to bus routes in London, now also hitting the outskirts harder Khan still begging for more money for TfL Next bailout option is no money or let central government take control Another fiasco with crossrail further delaying its opening More stupid crazy protests with another new menace type eco warrior group More people desert buses in London TfL gets rid of the QIC and bonus payment scheme for operators to save money and just give a re-worked standard contract price Elon Musk develops a Tesla bus Electric LED monitor blinds become the new standard More strikes on buses and trains due to rising costs post covid freezing wages Two outcomes I could see are: 1. Arriva sold to Comfort DelGro, who then divest Arriva London to RATP or Abellio, or even Transdev on a return to London. There may be 1 buyer for north London garages and another for south London garages. 2. Arriva sold to Transdev, who then divest Arriva Yorkshire to Go-Ahead. I was going to add Bolton but that is more likely to be overtaken by events surrounding franchising I think 1 is more likely, we can see ComfortDelGro is interested in the UK market beyond Metroline. By my calculations, once the 125 is lost, ComfortDelGro could get away with divesting only Metroline West (new ON kept) and Arriva South, which would see them operate just under 25% of operations. |
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Post by vjaska on Jan 8, 2022 10:37:12 GMT
Think you are very wrong about the 24 and can imagine a lot of attention if it was proposed for withdrawal. I can see a route 13 type of renumbering if anything was to happen. No one cares about the 15? Find that funny as you used to be fairly focal about the 15h withdrawal. A way to withdraw but keep route 24 could be as follows: 24 Withdrawn between Victoria and Pimlico. Diverted at Camden Town to Wood Green. Reallocated to Arriva (WN) and converted to HV operation. 27 Diverted at Camden Town to Hampstead Heath via current route 24. 29 Withdrawn, or effectively extended back to Victoria and renumbered 24. 507 Extended from Victoria to Pimlico. These changes would be timed to coincide with the expiry of a current Abellio tender, or even the expiry of another tender that could be handed to Abellio as compensation. I don’t see that happening at all. Extending the 29 could simply worsen the reliability of it especially when Victoria Street westbound can snarl up at times and eastbound having to run around the one way system which also has its moments. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 8, 2022 16:07:52 GMT
A way to withdraw but keep route 24 could be as follows: 24 Withdrawn between Victoria and Pimlico. Diverted at Camden Town to Wood Green. Reallocated to Arriva (WN) and converted to HV operation. 27 Diverted at Camden Town to Hampstead Heath via current route 24. 29 Withdrawn, or effectively extended back to Victoria and renumbered 24. 507 Extended from Victoria to Pimlico. These changes would be timed to coincide with the expiry of a current Abellio tender, or even the expiry of another tender that could be handed to Abellio as compensation. I don’t see that happening at all. Extending the 29 could simply worsen the reliability of it especially when Victoria Street westbound can snarl up at times and eastbound having to run around the one way system which also has its moments. Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section.
You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. |
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Post by greenboy on Jan 8, 2022 16:34:57 GMT
I don’t see that happening at all. Extending the 29 could simply worsen the reliability of it especially when Victoria Street westbound can snarl up at times and eastbound having to run around the one way system which also has its moments. Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section.
You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. Just extend alternate buses on the 29 to Victoria, what @metrolinega1511 suggested seems ok to me. The 11/311 that you suggested would break the north/south link across Trafalgar Square. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 8, 2022 16:38:16 GMT
Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section.
You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. Just extend alternate buses on the 29 to Victoria, what @metrolinega1511 suggested seems ok to me. The 11/311 that you suggested would break the north/south link across Trafalgar Square. I don't think that would be a good idea, I'm sorry. The 29 is fine as is at the moment (it needs a reliable service and with the constant demos on Whitehall that will not help the service) and I suspect the 24 has grandfather rights so I don't know whether we'll be seeing any change to that other than a possible extension up to Golders Green.
I mean in regards to the 11/311 idea, wasn't the 311 proposed to terminate in Oxford Circus? That would still break the link but I think keeping an overlap with the 11 between Victoria & Trafalgar Square (Whitehall) is probably a better way of going about it because you still share same stop interchange.
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Post by greenboy on Jan 8, 2022 16:48:50 GMT
Just extend alternate buses on the 29 to Victoria, what @metrolinega1511 suggested seems ok to me. The 11/311 that you suggested would break the north/south link across Trafalgar Square. I don't think that would be a good idea, I'm sorry. The 29 is fine as is at the moment (it needs a reliable service and with the constant demos on Whitehall that will not help the service) and I suspect the 24 has grandfather rights so I don't know whether we'll be seeing any change to that other than a possible extension up to Golders Green.
I mean in regards to the 11/311 idea, wasn't the 311 proposed to terminate in Oxford Circus? That would still break the link but I think keeping an overlap with the 11 between Victoria & Trafalgar Square (Whitehall) is probably a better way of going about it because you still share same stop interchange.
The 11 and 29 would give 10bph between Trafalgar Square and Victoria which is enough at the moment. If and when things do pick up the full service on the 29 could go to Victoria, it's less than 90 minutes end to end so quite feasible, and the 507 is extended to Pimlico although maybe it'll be numbered 24 just to save a small remnant of it. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 8, 2022 17:25:36 GMT
I don't think that would be a good idea, I'm sorry. The 29 is fine as is at the moment (it needs a reliable service and with the constant demos on Whitehall that will not help the service) and I suspect the 24 has grandfather rights so I don't know whether we'll be seeing any change to that other than a possible extension up to Golders Green.
I mean in regards to the 11/311 idea, wasn't the 311 proposed to terminate in Oxford Circus? That would still break the link but I think keeping an overlap with the 11 between Victoria & Trafalgar Square (Whitehall) is probably a better way of going about it because you still share same stop interchange.
The 11 and 29 would give 10bph between Trafalgar Square and Victoria which is enough at the moment. If and when things do pick up the full service on the 29 could go to Victoria, it's less than 90 minutes end to end so quite feasible, and the 507 is extended to Pimlico although maybe it'll be numbered 24 just to save a small remnant of it. I'm still in the belief that the 24/29 should stay seperate but anyway I guess there's no conclusive answer to the debate. Plus traffic can be quite bad down to Victoria impacting those on the northern section of the route of which is densely populated. The 29 is a short-ish service but I do think it should stay that way because of the intense demand throughout and especially relevant now that the 29/253/254/259 have all seen reductions. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jan 8, 2022 18:15:02 GMT
Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section.
You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. Just extend alternate buses on the 29 to Victoria, what @metrolinega1511 suggested seems ok to me. The 11/311 that you suggested would break the north/south link across Trafalgar Square. Thank you for your understanding. Taking on board the drawbacks in route 29 returning to Victoria now, an amended scheme I can think of is 24 Retained between Pimlico and Trafalgar Square but then diverted to Crouch End via Kingsway 27 Diverted to Hampstead Heath via current route 24 29, 507 No changes after all 91 Withdrawn (or extended from Trafalgar Square to Pimlico and renumbered 24) Unlike my scheme this morning, this would retain the Trafalgar Square - Pimlico link. The simplest timing would be when route 24 or 91 comes up for tender. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Jan 8, 2022 18:27:45 GMT
Just extend alternate buses on the 29 to Victoria, what @metrolinega1511 suggested seems ok to me. The 11/311 that you suggested would break the north/south link across Trafalgar Square. Thank you for your understanding. Taking on board the drawbacks in route 29 returning to Victoria now, an amended scheme I can think of is 24 Retained between Pimlico and Trafalgar Square but then diverted to Crouch End via Kingsway 27 Diverted to Hampstead Heath via current route 24 29, 507 No changes after all 91 Withdrawn (or extended from Trafalgar Square to Pimlico and renumbered 24) Unlike my scheme this morning, this would retain the Trafalgar Square - Pimlico link. The simplest timing would be when route 24 or 91 comes up for tender. 91 is up for tender very soon. I'm really skeptical that this is workable, first of all there would be loss of capacity along TCR. If something were to happen to the 24, I would say it could be diverted at Warren Street to Archway via the 390, with the 73 extended to Victoria (or the 137 to Euston) and 390 withdrawn. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 8, 2022 18:36:51 GMT
Thank you for your understanding. Taking on board the drawbacks in route 29 returning to Victoria now, an amended scheme I can think of is 24 Retained between Pimlico and Trafalgar Square but then diverted to Crouch End via Kingsway 27 Diverted to Hampstead Heath via current route 24 29, 507 No changes after all 91 Withdrawn (or extended from Trafalgar Square to Pimlico and renumbered 24) Unlike my scheme this morning, this would retain the Trafalgar Square - Pimlico link. The simplest timing would be when route 24 or 91 comes up for tender. 91 is up for tender very soon. I'm really skeptical that this is workable, first of all there would be loss of capacity along TCR. If something were to happen to the 24, I would say it could be diverted at Warren Street to Archway via the 390, with the 73 extended to Victoria (or the 137 to Euston) and 390 withdrawn. That sounds more sensible than some of the suggestions suggested previously such as extensions to the 41 but that would have to endure the Euston Road traffic issue of which the 390 currently struggles with. If Euston Road and York Way became less congested, would I be all for it? Probably |
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Post by vjaska on Jan 8, 2022 18:37:44 GMT
I don’t see that happening at all. Extending the 29 could simply worsen the reliability of it especially when Victoria Street westbound can snarl up at times and eastbound having to run around the one way system which also has its moments. Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section. You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. Yeah, I suggested splitting the 11 in two routes because sadly the 11 in its current form can’t really continue as it is. Doing Fulham Broadway to Liverpool Street can take a ridiculous amount of time. I suggested running the 11 from Liverpool Street to Victoria with the 311 from Fulham Broadway to Trafalgar Square. The 29 is already 78 minutes at its max running time and that probably is being kind given how many traffic hotspots it’s got - top of Charing Cross Road, Camden Town, Finsbury Park, Green Lanes and the stretch between Turnpike Lane & Wood Green. The 91 would seem a much better fit - less traffic hotspots, less max running time and a lower frequency |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 8, 2022 18:56:08 GMT
Also regarding the 29 it has way too high a frequency for the Trafalgar Square to Pimlico section. You're absolutely right with this one, I think if something like this were to take place perhaps it would be better to have the 11 diverted to serve Pimlico with a 311 overlap to Trafalgar Square from Fulham Broadway (I can't remember if you were the one that mentioned something similar like this). The 29 needs empty buses to roll off the stands at Trafalgar Square to start picking up the loads, and then it having a decent enough reliability to handle crowds from University College Hospital onwards. Yeah, I suggested splitting the 11 in two routes because sadly the 11 in its current form can’t really continue as it is. Doing Fulham Broadway to Liverpool Street can take a ridiculous amount of time. I suggested running the 11 from Liverpool Street to Victoria with the 311 from Fulham Broadway to Trafalgar Square. The 29 is already 78 minutes at its max running time and that probably is being kind given how many traffic hotspots it’s got - top of Charing Cross Road, Camden Town, Finsbury Park, Green Lanes and the stretch between Turnpike Lane & Wood Green. The 91 would seem a much better fit - less traffic hotspots, less max running time and a lower frequency Yeah I think the 29 is better off not extended and plus it's successful as is. |
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Post by TB123 on Jan 8, 2022 19:02:02 GMT
My prediction of what will happen regarding "24-gate" - a couple have these have been suggested to me as what could happen, but time will tell.
11 - diverted at Victoria to Pimlico. Withdrawn between Victoria and Liverpool Street. PVR changed to 13
16 - extended to Fulham Broadway via the 11 route. PVR changed to 20. This route would have a max trip time shorter than the existing 11 and be 30% longer in distance.
24 - withdrawn.
27 - extended to Hampstead Heath. PVR changed to 19.
211 - reduced to 5bph. PVR changed to 13.
390 - extended to Waterloo via 507 route. PVR changed to 31 - now this one would actually be an improvement as the frequencies would match, double decks and new links would be opened up.
507 - withdrawn
I suppose we'll have to watch this space regarding what happens.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 8, 2022 19:05:56 GMT
My prediction of what will happen regarding "24-gate" - a couple have these have been suggested to me as what could happen, but time will tell. 11 - diverted at Victoria to Pimlico. Withdrawn between Victoria and Liverpool Street. PVR changed to 13 16 - extended to Fulham Broadway via the 11 route. PVR changed to 20. This route would have a max trip time shorter than the existing 11 and be 30% longer in distance. 24 - withdrawn. 27 - extended to Hampstead Heath. PVR changed to 19. 211 - reduced to 5bph. PVR changed to 13. 390 - extended to Waterloo via 507 route. PVR changed to 31 - now this one would actually be an improvement as the frequencies would match, double decks and new links would be opened up. 507 - withdrawn I suppose we'll have to watch this space regarding what happens. I would add that I could see the 24 number being retained on the 27, and the 27 is the route that gets withdrawn. This minimises any uproar from the local community in Hampstead Heath who are probably the most likely to cause a flare up. |
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