London Bus Route Usage 2022/2023

[londonbuses]

I did these stats last year with the 2021/22 data, but passenger figures have mostly recovered since COVID in the past year, so these figures show more long-term changes in usage.

Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(New routes 218, 278, 301, 306, 335, 378, 456, 497, 533 and X140 not included).
1. Route 404 - 210.26% (=)
2. Route 110 - 205.14% (=)
3. Route 423 - 193.12% (=)
4. Route 419 - 163.44% (=)
5. Route 112 - 136.05% (=)
6. Route 129 - 133.92% (new)
7. Route 440 - 130.85% (-1)
8. Route 425 - 130.71% (-1)
9. Route 384 - 125.04% (-1)
10. Route 289 - 119.77% (-1)
11. Route 26 - 117.32% (=)
12. Route 490 - 114.24% (=)
13. Route H98 - 112.62% (new)
14. Route 35 - 112.62% (=)
15. Route 482 - 112.16% (+6)
16. Route 90 - 111.91% (-3)
17. Route 481 - 106.97% (new)
18. Route 125 - 106.88% (-8)
19. Route D8 - 106.75% (new)
20. Route 158 - 106.63% (-2)
21. Route 375 - 104.58% (new)
22. Route 127 - 103.93% (=)
23. Route X26 - 103.42% (new)
24. Route 232 - 103.16% (-9)
25. Route 222 - 101.92% (new)
26. Route 60 - 101.41% (-9)
27. Route 81 - 101.31% (new)
28. Route EL1 - 101.18% (-12)
29. Route 296 - 100.59% (new)
30. Route 287 - 100.40% (-10)

Top 30 routes with lowest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(Withdrawn routes 10, 15H, 48, 305, 391, C2, RV1 and W10 not included).
1. Route 209 - 6.87% (=)
2. Route 72 - 29.66% (+2)
3. Route 507 - 31.84% (-1)
4. Route 521 - 41.51% (-1)
5. Route U10 - 44.71% (+19)
6. Route 45 - 44.82% (-1)
7. Route 414 - 50.81% (+13)
8. Route 266 - 54.87% (-1)
9. Route 67 - 55.40% (-1)
10. Route 27 - 55.89% (+3)
11. Route 12 - 56.90% (new)
12. Route 140 - 56.92% (-3)
13. Route 549 - 58.94% (new)
14. Route 299 - 61.67% (+15)
15. Route 327 - 61.80% (-4)
16. Route 171 - 61.82% (new)
17. Route 228 - 62.02% (new)
18. Route 224 - 62.29%(new)
19. Route 464 - 62.75% (new)
20. Route A10 - 62.84% (-8)
21. Route 104 - 62.97% (new)
22. Route R8 - 63.32% (-8)
23. Route 485 - 63.69% (new)
24. Route S4 - 64.78% (new)
25. Route B11 - 64.87% (new)
26. Route H20 - 64.92% (new)
27. Route 134 - 65.20% (-12)
28. Route 379 - 65.32% (new)
29. Route 25 - 65.53% (-10)
30. Route 346 - 65.67% (-14)

[LD71YLO (BE37054)]

Interesting, thanks Trafalgax, YX10FFN and londonbuses for the stats. One interesting route is the 423, which saw a whopping 93% increase* in usage despite not being extended or restructured in any way. This just shows how simply decking a route can increase patronage hugely.

Also on the drops in usage list, I find it quite intriguing quite how many of the routes on there are low frequency suburban, in many cases almost rural. routes. U10, 549, 299, 327, 464, R8, 485, S4, B11, 379, 346 all see huge reductions in their usages despite most not having been restructured in any way or having had their frequency cut.

Looking at my local area, a few routes which stick out to me are routes 65, 33 and 490. They all feature in the top 30 DD/SD routes and, from my observations, could all do with some assistance. For the latter two, the withdrawal of the H22 will inevitably have played a part and the R68/R70 changes will only make this worse. Route 490 also features in the highest increase in patronage list.

Another mention goes to routes 214 and 366, the only two routes in the top 10 SD routes not to use 10.8m long SDs or greater. This further gives credibility to the argument that route 366 should have got 10.9m SEes when its new contract started with Go-Ahead. Route W4 is also the only one on the top 30 list to use single door vehicles.

*I have to mention that the statistics above are the usage in 2022/23 as a percentage of usage in 2019/20, not percentage change as that would mean routes like the 296 saw their usage double as opposed to returning to pre-pandemic usage levels. Sorry for the nit-picking.

[deppy42]

Oct 6, 2023 18:21:37 GMT LD71YLO (BE37054) said:

Interesting, thanks Trafalgax , YX10FFN and londonbuses for the stats. One interesting route is the 423, which saw a whopping 93% increase* in usage despite not being extended or restructured in any way. This just shows how simply decking a route can increase patronage hugely.

I think you may find that the % increase on the 423 is due to the withdrawal of the Heathrow free zone. The 423 was Free between LHR T5 and Salisbury Road (well outside the normal free zone) so the majority of the route was free with passengers not required to touch in.

Now all passengers need to have a valid ticket so all journeys are counted. It was common to see passengers get on around Heathrow and travel all the way to Hounslow for free.

Actual passenger journeys haven't changed, just are now all recorded. Nothing to do with it being DD'd, it's been a decker for much longer than you think.....

[londonbuses]

Oct 6, 2023 18:21:37 GMT LD71YLO (BE37054) said:

Also on the drops in usage list, I find it quite intriguing quite how many of the routes on there are low frequency suburban, in many cases almost rural. routes. U10, 549, 299, 327, 464, R8, 485, S4, B11, 379, 346 all see huge reductions in their usages despite most not having been restructured in any way or having had their frequency cut.

Indeed, every route on the list apart from the 299, 327, 346, 379, 464, 549, H20, R8 and S4 have had drastic route or frequency changes. All of those routes are low frequency "round the houses" routes, and are all quite short routes other than the S4, so there is a clear signal that Covid has had a long-term effect on the passenger figures of these type of routes. The exact opposite has happened with express routes, with the X26 being one of the only routes that has a higher usage than 2018/19 without being affected by route or frequency changes (during the period the data was collected), supporting the whole idea of the Superloop scheme.

The S4 is a very interesting one, as it is planned to be increased in frequency from 2bph to 3bph as part of the Sutton/Croydon changes. The 455 has recovered very well (88% of 2018/19 usage), so retaining the route between Wallington and West Croydon and not breaking links is probably worth it. Maybe a straight swap of the 470 and S4 north of Sutton would make more sense, with the 470 running between St Helier and Epsom (same as the planned S2) at 3bph using 10.2 or 10.8m buses, and the S4 running between Morden and Roundshaw at 2bph using 9m buses (with another route taking over the Morden to Colliers Wood section of the existing 470)?

[BK15AZR]

Oct 6, 2023 17:07:53 GMT londonbuses said:

I did these stats last year with the 2021/22 data, but passenger figures have mostly recovered since COVID in the past year, so these figures show more long-term changes in usage.

Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(New routes 218, 278, 301, 306, 335, 378, 456, 497, 533 and X140 not included).
1. Route 404 - 210.26% (=)
2. Route 110 - 205.14% (=)
3. Route 423 - 193.12% (=)
4. Route 419 - 163.44% (=)
5. Route 112 - 136.05% (=)
6. Route 129 - 133.92% (new)
7. Route 440 - 130.85% (-1)
8. Route 425 - 130.71% (-1)
9. Route 384 - 125.04% (-1)
10. Route 289 - 119.77% (-1)
11. Route 26 - 117.32% (=)
12. Route 490 - 114.24% (=)
13. Route H98 - 112.62% (new)
14. Route 35 - 112.62% (=)
15. Route 482 - 112.16% (+6)
16. Route 90 - 111.91% (-3)
17. Route 481 - 106.97% (new)
18. Route 125 - 106.88% (-8)
19. Route D8 - 106.75% (new)
20. Route 158 - 106.63% (-2)
21. Route 375 - 104.58% (new)
22. Route 127 - 103.93% (=)
23. Route X26 - 103.42% (new)
24. Route 232 - 103.16% (-9)
25. Route 222 - 101.92% (new)
26. Route 60 - 101.41% (-9)
27. Route 81 - 101.31% (new)
28. Route EL1 - 101.18% (-12)
29. Route 296 - 100.59% (new)
30. Route 287 - 100.40% (-10)

Top 30 routes with lowest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(Withdrawn routes 10, 15H, 48, 305, 391, C2, RV1 and W10 not included).
1. Route 209 - 6.87% (=)
2. Route 72 - 29.66% (+2)
3. Route 507 - 31.84% (-1)
4. Route 521 - 41.51% (-1)
5. Route U10 - 44.71% (+19)
6. Route 45 - 44.82% (-1)
7. Route 414 - 50.81% (+13)
8. Route 266 - 54.87% (-1)
9. Route 67 - 55.40% (-1)
10. Route 27 - 55.89% (+3)
11. Route 12 - 56.90% (new)
12. Route 140 - 56.92% (-3)
13. Route 549 - 58.94% (new)
14. Route 299 - 61.67% (+15)
15. Route 327 - 61.80% (-4)
16. Route 171 - 61.82% (new)
17. Route 228 - 62.02% (new)
18. Route 224 - 62.29%(new)
19. Route 464 - 62.75% (new)
20. Route A10 - 62.84% (-8)
21. Route 104 - 62.97% (new)
22. Route R8 - 63.32% (-8)
23. Route 485 - 63.69% (new)
24. Route S4 - 64.78% (new)
25. Route B11 - 64.87% (new)
26. Route H20 - 64.92% (new)
27. Route 134 - 65.20% (-12)
28. Route 379 - 65.32% (new)
29. Route 25 - 65.53% (-10)
30. Route 346 - 65.67% (-14)

Thanks! That's a very interesting analysis.
Surprised the D8 is there on the list, though from my observation it's becoming more popular, even though it parallels two railway lines (DLR/Jubilee Line). The new development along the route in Stratford, Bow, Poplar and Isle of Dogs over the past few years seem to help.
Some other routes with an increase in patronage vs. 2019 are results of extensions or merging with other routes (e.g. 110, 112, 129). I'm really interested to see how the 1 evolves in the coming year with its extension to Hampstead Heath.

On the other side, many if the routes with a decline are resulting from their cutbacks - 25, 45, 67, 104, 171, 266, 414 are all examples. The 12, on the other hand, looks like on a managed decline over the years and seems like its heyday is long gone...

[vjaska]

Oct 6, 2023 22:54:07 GMT BK15AZR said:

Oct 6, 2023 17:07:53 GMT londonbuses said:

I did these stats last year with the 2021/22 data, but passenger figures have mostly recovered since COVID in the past year, so these figures show more long-term changes in usage.

Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(New routes 218, 278, 301, 306, 335, 378, 456, 497, 533 and X140 not included).
1. Route 404 - 210.26% (=)
2. Route 110 - 205.14% (=)
3. Route 423 - 193.12% (=)
4. Route 419 - 163.44% (=)
5. Route 112 - 136.05% (=)
6. Route 129 - 133.92% (new)
7. Route 440 - 130.85% (-1)
8. Route 425 - 130.71% (-1)
9. Route 384 - 125.04% (-1)
10. Route 289 - 119.77% (-1)
11. Route 26 - 117.32% (=)
12. Route 490 - 114.24% (=)
13. Route H98 - 112.62% (new)
14. Route 35 - 112.62% (=)
15. Route 482 - 112.16% (+6)
16. Route 90 - 111.91% (-3)
17. Route 481 - 106.97% (new)
18. Route 125 - 106.88% (-8)
19. Route D8 - 106.75% (new)
20. Route 158 - 106.63% (-2)
21. Route 375 - 104.58% (new)
22. Route 127 - 103.93% (=)
23. Route X26 - 103.42% (new)
24. Route 232 - 103.16% (-9)
25. Route 222 - 101.92% (new)
26. Route 60 - 101.41% (-9)
27. Route 81 - 101.31% (new)
28. Route EL1 - 101.18% (-12)
29. Route 296 - 100.59% (new)
30. Route 287 - 100.40% (-10)

Top 30 routes with lowest percentage change in usage compared to 2018/19:

(Withdrawn routes 10, 15H, 48, 305, 391, C2, RV1 and W10 not included).
1. Route 209 - 6.87% (=)
2. Route 72 - 29.66% (+2)
3. Route 507 - 31.84% (-1)
4. Route 521 - 41.51% (-1)
5. Route U10 - 44.71% (+19)
6. Route 45 - 44.82% (-1)
7. Route 414 - 50.81% (+13)
8. Route 266 - 54.87% (-1)
9. Route 67 - 55.40% (-1)
10. Route 27 - 55.89% (+3)
11. Route 12 - 56.90% (new)
12. Route 140 - 56.92% (-3)
13. Route 549 - 58.94% (new)
14. Route 299 - 61.67% (+15)
15. Route 327 - 61.80% (-4)
16. Route 171 - 61.82% (new)
17. Route 228 - 62.02% (new)
18. Route 224 - 62.29%(new)
19. Route 464 - 62.75% (new)
20. Route A10 - 62.84% (-8)
21. Route 104 - 62.97% (new)
22. Route R8 - 63.32% (-8)
23. Route 485 - 63.69% (new)
24. Route S4 - 64.78% (new)
25. Route B11 - 64.87% (new)
26. Route H20 - 64.92% (new)
27. Route 134 - 65.20% (-12)
28. Route 379 - 65.32% (new)
29. Route 25 - 65.53% (-10)
30. Route 346 - 65.67% (-14)

Thanks! That's a very interesting analysis.
Surprised the D8 is there on the list, though from my observation it's becoming more popular, even though it parallels two railway lines (DLR/Jubilee Line). The new development along the route in Stratford, Bow, Poplar and Isle of Dogs over the past few years seem to help.
Some other routes with an increase in patronage vs. 2019 are results of extensions or merging with other routes (e.g. 110, 112, 129). I'm really interested to see how the 1 evolves in the coming year with its extension to Hampstead Heath.

On the other side, many if the routes with a decline are resulting from their cutbacks - 25, 45, 67, 104, 171, 266, 414 are all examples. The 12, on the other hand, looks like on a managed decline over the years and seems like its heyday is long gone...

What these figures prove is when you start cutting frequencies and sections of routes, you cause real, unnecessary harm. The 45 seems to be stablizing at least so hopefully it will be given room to do just that.

[YY13VKP]

Oct 5, 2023 14:43:04 GMT YX10FFN said:

Top 20 least used bus routes in London:

20: R2 - 199,268 (-)
19: 346 - 187,967 (+1)
18: 404 - 185,277 (+1)
17: 485 - 179,239 (+1)
16: 209 - 149,861 (-3)
15: 464 - 139,407 (-)
14: 467 - 130,456 (-)
13: 497 - 105,095 (+3)
12: 146 - 77,891 (-)
11: 375 - 70,563 (-)
10: U10 - 61,304 (-3)
9: R8 - 49,814 (-)
8: 327 - 48,612 (-)
7: R5/R10 - 41,795 (+1)
6: 549 - 36,429 (-1)
5: 347 - 29,996 (-)
4: 385 - 28,437 (-)
3: H3 - 20,564 (-)
2: 389 - 10,977 (-)
1: 399 - 8,381 (-)

The 497's rise can be explained by a pretty much exact doubling of its patronage. Guess the Elizabeth Line opening kicked the route into gear, so to speak. 

Think the 404 would be much more useful if it served Caterham Village and Caterham Station rather than SCC route 411. You’d get a fair bit of commuter traffic on that.
I’m not surprised to see the R8 there sadly, as much as it’s a handy link between Downe and Orpington Station, it’s just not frequent enough and not much can be done to improve it for reasons which become apparent once you use the route.

[YY13VKP]

Oct 6, 2023 1:35:38 GMT vjaska said:

Oct 5, 2023 18:07:59 GMT ADH45258 said:

There will be some cases where low usage is a direct result of low frequency, maybe the R2 is one of these? I don't know how much demand there is to travel from Biggin Hill to Orpington, but with the R2 only every half an hour (and the R8 even less), I'm sure many passengers would prefer to drive, or go to Bromley instead using the more frequent 320? So despite low usage at the moment, maybe the R1/R2 will be more attractive to use if every 20 minutes?

The 353 is an odd example, I can't see there being a huge demand to travel from Orpington to Addington. The Orpington-Locksbottom and Hayes-Addington sections have more frequent alternatives, so the 353 is mostly useful to those making longer journeys, or for a short connection to/from Forestdale.

It's a good point you make in regards to low usage being a result of low frequency but also with the 353 in particular, it received a frequency cut from every 15 minutes to every 20 minutes a few years back which was never going to help matters either

The 353 used to see heavy school traffic despite there being the 654 and 664, not sure if that’s still the case. But like you said, the frequency cut is only going to push people away rather than attract.

[greenboy]

Oct 7, 2023 8:11:21 GMT YY13VKP said:

Oct 6, 2023 1:35:38 GMT vjaska said:

It's a good point you make in regards to low usage being a result of low frequency but also with the 353 in particular, it received a frequency cut from every 15 minutes to every 20 minutes a few years back which was never going to help matters either

The 353 used to see heavy school traffic despite there being the 654 and 664, not sure if that’s still the case. But like you said, the frequency cut is only going to push people away rather than attract.

The 353 does still carry a lot of school traffic which is probably the only reason it has double deckers but the 3bph Mon-Sat daytime frequency is quite generous if anything.

[MetrolineGA1511]

Oct 5, 2023 21:00:29 GMT londonbuses said:

Top 30 routes with highest percentage change in usage compared to 2021/22:

1. Route 129 - 228.29%
2. Route 497 - 200.23%
3. Route 301 - 156.63%
4. Route X68 - 152.55%
5. Route 423 - 152.28%
6. Route 481 - 149.28%
7. Route 456 - 148.60%
8. Route H22 - 143.38%
9. Route 411 - 143.02%
10. Route X26 - 141.94%
11. Route 105 - 141.52%
12. Route 293 - 140.37%
13. Route H14 - 138.93%
14. Route H98 - 138.76%
15. Route 290 - 138.23%
16. Route 419 - 138.10%
17. Route 139 - 138.09%
18. Route U3 - 137.37%
19. Route 74 - 137.12%
20. Route 388 - 137.08%
21. Route K4 - 136.71%
22. Route 100 - 136.67%
23. Route H32 - 136.62%
24. Route 324 - 136.27%
25. Route 33 - 135.98%
26. Route X140 - 135.96%
27. Route K1 - 135.80%
28. Route 172 - 135.43%
29. Route H3 - 135.18%
30. Route 203 - 135.12%

Top 30 routes with lowest percentage change in usage compared to 2021/22:

1. Route U10 - 81.55%
2. Route 104 - 88.38%
3. Route 209 - 92.55%
4. Route 414 - 95.36%
5. Route 12 - 96.05%
6. Route 359 - 96.88%
7. Route 159 - 97.52%
8. Route B11 - 97.75%
9. Route 228 - 99.20%
10. Route 472 - 101.07%
11. Route 549 - 101.10%
12. Route 72 - 101.56%
13. Route 130 - 101.58%
14. Route 267 - 103.22%
15. Route 101 - 103.30%
16. Route H28 - 104.12%
17. Route E11 - 104.12%
18. Route 15 - 104.73%
19. Route 464 - 105.29%
20. Route 259 - 106.66%
21. Route 23 - 106.78%
22. Route 415 - 107.23%
23. Route P5 - 107.27%
24. Route 401 - 107.41%
25. Route 218 - 107.45%
26. Route 473 - 107.51%
27. Route 171 - 107.90%
28. Route 379 - 107.90%
29. Route H20 - 108.08%
30. Route S4 - 108.53%

With even some of these figures in the lowest %ages being above 100%, this points to an overall increase in usage during the year.

August Bank Holiday usage was reportedly 96% of that from 2019.  I was among the 4% who used London buses on August Bank Holiday 2019 but not 2023. 

[LD71YLO (BE37054)]

Oct 6, 2023 20:13:44 GMT deppy42 said:

Oct 6, 2023 18:21:37 GMT LD71YLO (BE37054) said:

Interesting, thanks Trafalgax , YX10FFN and londonbuses for the stats. One interesting route is the 423, which saw a whopping 93% increase* in usage despite not being extended or restructured in any way. This just shows how simply decking a route can increase patronage hugely.

I think you may find that the % increase on the 423 is due to the withdrawal of the Heathrow free zone. The 423 was Free between LHR T5 and Salisbury Road (well outside the normal free zone) so the majority of the route was free with passengers not required to touch in.

Now all passengers need to have a valid ticket so all journeys are counted. It was common to see passengers get on around Heathrow and travel all the way to Hounslow for free.

Actual passenger journeys haven't changed, just are now all recorded. Nothing to do with it being DD'd, it's been a decker for much longer than you think.....

I thought it was decked in 2020?

[VMH2537]

Some analysis of my local routes:

125: 4,215,731. Looking well recovered at 88% of its pre-covid usage from 4,787,894.

377: 244,606. Only 77.8% of its pre-covid from 314,233. My guessings the 456 took some patronage from Bincote Road, in particular during the school hours.

456: 338,952. The route is now starting to show it's expected usage yearly. Looking well used for a half-hourly service.

W9: 623,475. The route still seems to not recovered it's pre-covid patronage. Only 71% from 866,962. The 456 taking patronage and Sullivans failure to run a service may explain. My fears here TfL will eventually amend it's current route either it's frequency or restructuring both routes as I personally can't see both the 456 and the W9 running on its current form in the long-run.

[tooting395]

Oct 7, 2023 8:18:44 GMT greenboy said:

Oct 7, 2023 8:11:21 GMT YY13VKP said:

The 353 used to see heavy school traffic despite there being the 654 and 664, not sure if that’s still the case. But like you said, the frequency cut is only going to push people away rather than attract.

The 353 does still carry a lot of school traffic which is probably the only reason it has double deckers but the 3bph Mon-Sat daytime frequency is quite generous if anything.

353 to Croydon to restore the Croydon to Orpington link with the 464 extended to Forestdale could work. I think if the 353 took the Coombe lane route it would not add too many problems but tfl probably would not allow a bus to parellel the tram even if it was lower frequency. 353 could terminate at East Croydon and not compete with the tram too much as people prefer a direct link into town centre.

[greenboy]

Oct 8, 2023 23:07:20 GMT tooting395 said:

Oct 7, 2023 8:18:44 GMT greenboy said:

The 353 does still carry a lot of school traffic which is probably the only reason it has double deckers but the 3bph Mon-Sat daytime frequency is quite generous if anything.

353 to Croydon to restore the Croydon to Orpington link with the 464 extended to Forestdale could work. I think if the 353 took the Coombe lane route it would not add too many problems but tfl probably would not allow a bus to parellel the tram even if it was lower frequency. 353 could terminate at East Croydon and not compete with the tram too much as people prefer a direct link into town centre.

TfL wouldn't allow the 353 to return to its former route hence my suggestion of it replacing the 466 between Addington Village and Croydon and the reduction in frequency shouldn't be a problem and I would reroute the 433 to do a double run to Forestdale.

[Green Kitten]

Oct 8, 2023 23:07:20 GMT tooting395 said:

Oct 7, 2023 8:18:44 GMT greenboy said:

The 353 does still carry a lot of school traffic which is probably the only reason it has double deckers but the 3bph Mon-Sat daytime frequency is quite generous if anything.

353 to Croydon to restore the Croydon to Orpington link with the 464 extended to Forestdale could work. I think if the 353 took the Coombe lane route it would not add too many problems but tfl probably would not allow a bus to parellel the tram even if it was lower frequency. 353 could terminate at East Croydon and not compete with the tram too much as people prefer a direct link into town centre.

Would a 2bph with tiny buses work be enough capacity for Forestdale?