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Post by vjaska on Jun 3, 2024 16:17:06 GMT
Nigel Farage has announced he will be standing as an MP for Clacton and will also assume the party leadership. Massive U-turn considering he only said as recently as Thursday on Question Time that he wouldn't be standing and that Richard Tice is a capable leader despite Farage being front and centre of everything Reform is doing. Hopefully, Clacton doesn't believe the nonsense from him and this party and votes for anyone else. |
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Post by wirewiper on Jun 3, 2024 16:32:51 GMT
Nigel Farage has announced he will be standing as an MP for Clacton and will also assume the party leadership. Wasn't Clacton the first UKIP constituency all those years ago? It was, Douglas Carswell MP defected from the Conservatives to UKIP in August 2014, retained the seat in a by-election in October 2014 and in the Generall Election in 2015. He left UKIP and became an Independent MP in March 2017; he did not stand in the June 2017 General Election and the seat was regained by the Conservatives (the UKIP share of the vote fell by 36.8%). Clacton and the surrounding area had one of the highest percentage of Leave voters in the 2016 Referendum, and in 2015 22 UKIP Councillors were elected to Tendring District Council. The only other UKIP MP was Mark Reckless (Rochester & Strood), who followed Carswell across the floor from the Conservatives in September 2014. He reained his seat in a by-election but not in the 2015 General Election. He was subsequently elected to the National Assembly for Wales (now The Senedd) in 2016, and has since changed party a further three times (Reckless by name, reckless by nature I guess). |
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Post by wirewiper on Jun 3, 2024 17:01:58 GMT
Nigel Farage has announced he will be standing as an MP for Clacton and will also assume the party leadership. Massive U-turn considering he only said as recently as Thursday on Question Time that he wouldn't be standing and that Richard Tice is a capable leader despite Farage being front and centre of everything Reform is doing. Hopefully, Clacton doesn't believe the nonsense from him and this party and votes for anyone else. I'd hate to be a voter in Clacton now. I'm all for tactical voting, but voting Conservative to keep Reform UK out is too big an ask for me. |
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Post by TB123 on Jun 3, 2024 17:03:59 GMT
Massive U-turn considering he only said as recently as Thursday on Question Time that he wouldn't be standing and that Richard Tice is a capable leader despite Farage being front and centre of everything Reform is doing. Hopefully, Clacton doesn't believe the nonsense from him and this party and votes for anyone else. I'd hate to be a voter in Clacton now. I'm all for tactical voting, but voting Conservative to keep Reform UK out is too big an ask for me. It's Labour vs Reform in Clacton. The only way to keep right-wingers out is to vote Labour. |
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Post by buspete on Jun 3, 2024 17:49:54 GMT
And the clattering of zimmer frames down Clacton Seafront is palatable.
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Post by greenboy on Jun 3, 2024 18:21:36 GMT
I'd hate to be a voter in Clacton now. I'm all for tactical voting, but voting Conservative to keep Reform UK out is too big an ask for me. It's Labour vs Reform in Clacton. The only way to keep right-wingers out is to vote Labour. And the only way to keep Labour out is......... |
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Post by greenboy on Jun 3, 2024 18:22:46 GMT
And the clattering of zimmer frames down Clacton Seafront is palatable. Sadly this thread has degenerated into derogatory comments like this rather than any meaningful debate. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jun 3, 2024 20:27:31 GMT
In today's roundabout of Tory gaffs. The party's election broadcast features a Union Jack that is being flown upside down - a signal that the ship is in distress. You've got to wonder by this point if this is just some sort of internal ploy to gather attention to the party.
The first of what is expected to be three major YouGov polls using regression analysis has come out with a seat by seat breakdown. They predicted the hung parliament in 2017 and the Tory landslide of 2019. It is showing Labour with a huge 422 seats in parliament and the Tories holding onto 140 seats, with the Liberal Democrats taking 48 seats which effectively returns the party to the 2010 state after undoing the damage the coalition did to them. Notable MPs that would lose their seats include Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Penny Mordaunt who is widely tipped to be a future Conservative Party leader.
This is also notably before Farage announced his candidacy and impending leadership of Reform UK. This is unlikely to affect Labour's performance but is likely to hamper the Conservative vote even further than it already has so there's a potential chance that polling could get worse for the Conservatives. However it should be noted that this is the first poll of the campaign and in most cases the gap narrows closer to election day, but so far in the Tories' case it just seems to have got worse so far.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jun 3, 2024 20:30:45 GMT
It's Labour vs Reform in Clacton. The only way to keep right-wingers out is to vote Labour. And the only way to keep Labour out is......... ....to not keep them out. They're the only alternative that this country has at all. What else is the option? You can't really be proposing another 5 years of this Conservative government. |
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Post by buspete on Jun 3, 2024 21:27:05 GMT
And the clattering of zimmer frames down Clacton Seafront is palatable. Sadly this thread has degenerated into derogatory comments like this rather than any meaningful debate. No point in beating around the bush, Nigel Farage will be an mp for the first time - but everywhere else it is a major boost for Sir Kier Starmer and the Labour/Liberals parties. It a matter of fact Labour will form the next Government, but moreover the Liberal Democrat’s will now form His Majesty’s opposition. |
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Post by busman on Jun 3, 2024 21:54:12 GMT
And the only way to keep Labour out is......... ....to not keep them out. They're the only alternative that this country has at all. What else is the option? You can't really be proposing another 5 years of this Conservative government. For some people Reform, Lib Dem or Green parties are viable alternatives. Whilst I think Farage is a complete charlatan and his dog-eat-dog libertarian position will come back to bite many of his voters in the xxxx if he ever gets into government…others feel Reform is the party that most accurately reflects their mood. I actually think that Reform have made a smart move by having Farage as leader for the next 5 years. The Tories are rightfully going to be kicked into the wilderness for at least 2 terms after screwing up the country and Reform is betting that they can replace the Tories as the main opposition in the next general election. Starmer will need to occupy the centre ground, get a firm control on migration and get going with trade deals and pro-growth policies around the UK to stop Labour voters from switching to Reform. This is no longer checkers, Reform is playing chess. Ultimately the UK will get the government that the electorate deserves. If the population responds better to gut instinct and emotion over facts and detailed policy and most of us are now incapable of focussing beyond a few seconds, then we cannot be surprised that we vote for parties who behave in the same way. |
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Post by yunus on Jun 3, 2024 21:58:02 GMT
My gut feeling is that the next govt will be Labour & I would of liked to vote for the party if Corbyn was still the leader but NO way for Starmer.
I will be voting for the Workers Party, George Galloway being the leader.
Sadly I do not live in the Stratford & Bow constituency but will encourage my friends in that part to vote for the Communist Party candidate which is Fiona Lali that I have been supporting over the weekend.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jun 3, 2024 22:11:57 GMT
....to not keep them out. They're the only alternative that this country has at all. What else is the option? You can't really be proposing another 5 years of this Conservative government. For some people Reform, Lib Dem or Green parties are viable alternatives. Whilst I think Farage is a complete charlatan and his dog-eat-dog libertarian position will come back to bite many of his voters in the xxxx if he ever gets into government…others feel Reform is the party that most accurately reflects their mood. I actually think that Reform have made a smart move by having Farage as leader for the next 5 years. The Tories are rightfully going to be kicked into the wilderness for at least 2 terms after screwing up the country and Reform is betting that they can replace the Tories as the main opposition in the next general election. Starmer will need to occupy the centre ground, get a firm control on migration and get going with trade deals and pro-growth policies around the UK to stop Labour voters from switching to Reform. This is no longer checkers, Reform is playing chess. Ultimately the UK will get the government that the electorate deserves. If the population responds better to gut instinct and emotion over facts and detailed policy and most of us are now incapable of focussing beyond a few seconds, then we cannot be surprised that we vote for parties who behave in the same way. All very good points here. I think Farage is very clever in knowing that Reform are starting to potentially become an opposition party generally. If the Conservatives are a weak opposition then Labour is likely to stick around as a centrist party and the Liberal Democrats will probably take a similar position to today's Tory party, with Reform probably hoovering up most of the Tory votes that they've lost which could very well see them form an opposition in the space of a term. Just 5 years ago nobody would even dare to dream Labour could hold power again for the next term after the landslide win but here we are today. I think Labour themselves could also influence how much the Tories recover in comaprison to Reform UK. Moving too far left would potentially make people more active on the far right which would then give Reform even more supporters. Nigel Farage might finally get the seat he wanted all these years. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Jun 3, 2024 22:17:43 GMT
For some people Reform, Lib Dem or Green parties are viable alternatives. Whilst I think Farage is a complete charlatan and his dog-eat-dog libertarian position will come back to bite many of his voters in the xxxx if he ever gets into government…others feel Reform is the party that most accurately reflects their mood. I actually think that Reform have made a smart move by having Farage as leader for the next 5 years. The Tories are rightfully going to be kicked into the wilderness for at least 2 terms after screwing up the country and Reform is betting that they can replace the Tories as the main opposition in the next general election. Starmer will need to occupy the centre ground, get a firm control on migration and get going with trade deals and pro-growth policies around the UK to stop Labour voters from switching to Reform. This is no longer checkers, Reform is playing chess. Ultimately the UK will get the government that the electorate deserves. If the population responds better to gut instinct and emotion over facts and detailed policy and most of us are now incapable of focussing beyond a few seconds, then we cannot be surprised that we vote for parties who behave in the same way. All very good points here. I think Farage is very clever in knowing that Reform are starting to potentially become an opposition party generally. If the Conservatives are a weak opposition then Labour is likely to stick around as a centrist party and the Liberal Democrats will probably take a similar position to today's Tory party, with Reform probably hoovering up most of the Tory votes that they've lost which could very well see them form an opposition in the space of a term. Just 5 years ago nobody would even dare to dream Labour could hold power again for the next term after the landslide win but here we are today. I think Labour themselves could also influence how much the Tories recover in comaprison to Reform UK. Moving too far left would potentially make people more active on the far right which would then give Reform even more supporters. Nigel Farage might finally get the seat he wanted all these years. The major danger for Labour will be those casual one time voters and the undecided. If they lend their vote to Labour as a protest against other parties they will have a far higher expectation which may ultimately stunt any new Labour government. Sure, they could bring in all this crazy stuff but if they don’t fix the NHS, which they can’t without major non-financial reforms, or don’t make the railways public or their ludicrous GB Energy plan doesn’t work then those voters will just place their trust elsewhere and the country is even more stunted. Starmer may not be able to enact real change until a second term when his power base is more normalised. As much as a huge majority looks great it can also lead to an overly cautious government. |
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Post by busman on Jun 4, 2024 6:49:50 GMT
. As much as a huge majority looks great it can also lead to an overly cautious government. On the contrary, a huge majority emboldens governments to make radical changes. Blair and Cameron both made bold choices around the NHS, economic growth, our relationship with the EU and immigration. The last Labour government left the country broke after the last financial crisis. The Tories have left us broke AND broken after the last financial crisis. I’m hoping Starmer will make bold moves to raise income tax thresholds and reduce corporation tax. I would also like to see private health insurance better integrated into the compulsory NI contributions. The population has grown so much, we’re living longer and healthcare has increased in complexity - we need more doctors and healthcare professionals need to be paid higher wages to avoid further brain drain (lack of new trainees + workers leaving the UK or frontline healthcare). That can only be addressed through raising funds via higher taxes or by allowing some people to pay at the point of care within the NHS. Also anyone who misses an appointment without prior cancellation should pay for the appointment with a direct deduction from their pay, tax return or universal credit no ifs or buts. |
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