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Post by borneobus on Jul 5, 2024 23:37:18 GMT
Next Tory Leader?? Badenoch?? Braverman?? Cleverly?? Hunt?? Jenrick?? Has to be Tom Tugendhat. He is more a centrist than the candidates listed above and he is a military man. That is exactly what the conservatives need right now. Someone to come in fix the problems, reunite what remains and rebuild on a more middleman approach. The time for Badenoch and Braverman has passed. Going far right would almost certainly guarantee the Tories are left out for a while. I forgot Tom Tugendhat, one of the grown-ups left in the room and at the bookies second favourite behind Kemi Badenoch. |
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Post by vjaska on Jul 6, 2024 0:32:11 GMT
As we're all speculating what the Tories might do now, here's my prediction:
With Sunak having announced unsurprisingly that he is quitting, there will be an almighty bloodbath of a leadership contest between the hard righters and the more liberal Tories resulting in the Tories completely splitting into two parties - the hard righters will all jump into bed with Farage and his party and will continue this notion of trying to present themselves as the real opposition to Labour. Looking further ahead in 5 years, this party falls apart and Farage remains the only MP they have left as he clings onto Clacton. The liberals meanwhile either take the remains of the Tory party or form their own new Conservative party (think more New Labour but x10) and end up eventually becoming the real opposition to Labour alongside the Lib Dems - if someone like Tom Tugendhat isn't in charge of this new Tory party, Penny Mordaunt eventually takes the reigns having realised it's the center and not the hard right that she can compete for power.
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Post by buspete on Jul 6, 2024 0:40:19 GMT
If the Tories lurch to the right, they then get caught in the slip stream of Liberals hoovering up the centre ground. And if Reform voters don't budge then that will squeeze them in a tight position. Certainly more marginal seats in the Southeast such as Reigate, Godalming & Ash and Havant would be lost I agree with all that and from the top of my head East Hampshire, Southampton North and Ramsey, Farnham and Bordon and East Grinstead and d Uckfield etc that s just from a small area. There is one seat to be called and that is in Scotland and is completely unexpectedly going to go to Liberal Democrats, no poll called this and polls had the SNP in an 25 point lead. So the Libs are building something in Scotland. So next election they be looking to defend their seats and compete on an extra 25-45 seats. This won’t be good news for the SNP/Conservatives. Has to be Tom Tugendhat. He is more a centrist than the candidates listed above and he is a military man. That is exactly what the conservatives need right now. Someone to come in fix the problems, reunite what remains and rebuild on a more middleman approach. The time for Badenoch and Braverman has passed. Going far right would almost certainly guarantee the Tories are left out for a while. I forgot Tom Tugendhat, one of the grown-ups left in the room and at the bookies second favourite behind Kemi Badenoch. What I posted above is why the Tories need someone in the centre, so Tom Tugendhat or Jeremy Hunt would be the obvious choice for me, Kemi Badenoch etc etc would be the next Liz Truss. The Reform party is about one person and to be honest they didn’t do too well |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jul 6, 2024 6:48:12 GMT
And if Reform voters don't budge then that will squeeze them in a tight position. Certainly more marginal seats in the Southeast such as Reigate, Godalming & Ash and Havant would be lost I agree with all that and from the top of my head East Hampshire, Southampton North and Ramsey, Farnham and Bordon and East Grinstead and d Uckfield etc that s just from a small area. There is one seat to be called and that is in Scotland and is completely unexpectedly going to go to Liberal Democrats, no poll called this and polls had the SNP in an 25 point lead. So the Libs are building something in Scotland. So next election they be looking to defend their seats and compete on an extra 25-45 seats. This won’t be good news for the SNP/Conservatives. I forgot Tom Tugendhat, one of the grown-ups left in the room and at the bookies second favourite behind Kemi Badenoch. What I posted above is why the Tories need someone in the centre, so Tom Tugendhat or Jeremy Hunt would be the obvious choice for me, Kemi Badenoch etc etc would be the next Liz Truss. The Reform party is about one person and to be honest they didn’t do too well Reigate that includes Banstead aswell had 15k for Labour and 18k Conservative. In that past the Tories in that sort of area would have been 10k or more ahead. |
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Post by borneobus on Jul 6, 2024 7:27:02 GMT
And if Reform voters don't budge then that will squeeze them in a tight position. Certainly more marginal seats in the Southeast such as Reigate, Godalming & Ash and Havant would be lost I agree with all that and from the top of my head East Hampshire, Southampton North and Ramsey, Farnham and Bordon and East Grinstead and d Uckfield etc that s just from a small area. There is one seat to be called and that is in Scotland and is completely unexpectedly going to go to Liberal Democrats, no poll called this and polls had the SNP in an 25 point lead. So the Libs are building something in Scotland. So next election they be looking to defend their seats and compete on an extra 25-45 seats. This won’t be good news for the SNP/Conservatives. I forgot Tom Tugendhat, one of the grown-ups left in the room and at the bookies second favourite behind Kemi Badenoch. What I posted above is why the Tories need someone in the centre, so Tom Tugendhat or Jeremy Hunt would be the obvious choice for me, Kemi Badenoch etc etc would be the next Liz Truss. The Reform party is about one person and to be honest they didn’t do too well That's a fair point but all that matters is what Conservative Party members want and intuitively it feels that they will opt for a leader on the right of the party. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Jul 6, 2024 9:37:09 GMT
There is one seat to be called and that is in Scotland and is completely unexpectedly going to go to Liberal Democrats, no poll called this and polls had the SNP in an 25 point lead. So the Libs are building something in Scotland. So next election they be looking to defend their seats and compete on an extra 25-45 seats. This won’t be good news for the SNP/Conservatives. Regardless of this result Lib Dem's results in Scotland have led to both the northernmost and southernmost constituencies (containing John O'Groats / Lands End respectively) going to the Lib Dems. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 6, 2024 11:03:11 GMT
I thought they would have got more in London, I think some of the seats did not change as expected due to issues around Palestine. A lot of viral social media messages were going around telling Muslim voters to not vote certain MP's who were not supportive of Palestine. When Chingford and Woodford Green was being announced, ex-Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen looked visibly upset at her replacement and Ian Duncan Smith's results. He won't admit it, but even Smith looked surprised that he held onto his seat. It is not a reflection of the country but in some metropolitan areas like with Leicester, the issues around Gaza are just as important as domestic woes. Starmer would take in the win, but it would be foolish to ignore Palestinian issues and the low voter turnout. Let's see how he addresses these concerns while in office. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 6, 2024 11:05:58 GMT
Do you think the Sadiq will get his wish regarding now there’s a full Labour government? |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jul 6, 2024 11:08:05 GMT
And if Reform voters don't budge then that will squeeze them in a tight position. Certainly more marginal seats in the Southeast such as Reigate, Godalming & Ash and Havant would be lost Our local (awful) MP Andrew Rosindell in Romford has already said he will look yo align himself more towards Reform- already alienating a couple of the Tory local councillors He won the seat by just over 1000 votes, down from a 20k-ish majority in 2019. Hopefully his lurch even further to the right will seer many of the more centre-right votes in Romford away from Rozza (if he last a 5 year term as an MP) I very much doubt it. Compared to neighbouring Barking & Dagenham, there is a major difference what Rosindell has done compared to the outgoing Jon Cruddas. A lot of anti government agenda of Conservative and protest votes for this election would disappear by the next general election. |
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Post by wirewiper on Jul 6, 2024 11:16:52 GMT
The new Parliament is possibly the most diverse ever. Over 40% of the MPs are now women - 46% of the Labour MPs. 89 MPs are from ethnic minorities - a record. 334 of the MPs (over half) are new to the house, having never been elected before, including 56.4% of the Labour intake and 76.1% of the Lib Dems (not to mention 100% of the Greens). The new Cabinet fares less well on diversity. There are more women Ministers than ever before, but only one Black Minister (David Lammy, Foreign Secretary) and two women Ministers of South Asian descent (Shabana Mahmood and Lisa Nandy). The new Transport Secretary, Louise Haigh, is thought to be the youngest woman ever to serve as a Cabinet Minister at the age of 36. Diane Abbott becomes the Mother of the House, having served longer than any other woman MP in the new Parliament. Interestingly, Jeremy Corbyn just loses out to Edward Leigh as Father of the House, having been behind him in the queue to be sworn in in 1983. At the other extreme, the Baby of the House is the Labour MP Sam Carling, who narrowly won North West Cambridgeshire by just 39 votes. He is 22 - that's right, we now have an MP whose year of birth begins with a 2. |
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Post by vjaska on Jul 6, 2024 11:58:26 GMT
Fun Fact:
Only one of the 92 league clubs in the English system is still in a Tory constituency - that is newly promoted Bromley. Almost all other clubs are in a Labour constituency with 4 in places with independents (Arsenal, Aston Villa, Blackburn Rovers & Leicester City) and 3 in Lib Dem constituency’s (AFC Wimbledon, Cheltenham Town & Harrogate Town)
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Post by busman on Jul 6, 2024 12:37:03 GMT
All these Tories with their doomsday predictions and fear mongering makes me laugh. They have screwed the country up over 14 years. What do they have to show for it? The previous Labour (Blair) and Tory (Thatcher) governments for their eventual shortcomings could at least point to a list of achievements. What have the outgoing self-serving bunch of ideologues got to show for 14 years in government? The country is undoubtedly in a worse place on just about every metric.
It really cannot get any worse than it already is. Truss was a nadir for this country and for the same party to issue out warnings over any other party is beyond parody.
Good luck to Starmer, he will need it. He has 5 years to make a positive impact on the lives of those who have been let down and left behind.
We need a run of global stability to settle markets and supply chains, but with populists and dictators in charge of the major countries the outlook doesn’t look great. That is beyond the control of any domestic government, but a policy to become self sustaining in our energy generation and to create a British energy company seems sensible. Much will depend on Labour’s ideas actually working and delivering jobs and better quality of life for everyone.
I’m hoping Labour succeeds, because if they don’t we have 5 years of more failure and before you know it Farage will be Prime Minister. Then we really will be in trouble. It will be like Truss but tenfold worse. Except when people finally realise that foreigners aren’t actually the problem it will be too late, the damage will be done and irreversible as chunks of our national infrastructure are given over to private foreign companies and national debts and interest rates soar through the roof. The kind of circumstances that wars are borne out of.
Reform policies on the surface look enticing to the average person, but once you dig into the details and the consequences they are the threat to the nation that all parties should be warning against. It’s basically Fascism in appeal (the foreigner is our enemy diluting our nation, no to communism, no to globalism, no to liberalism, no to conservatism) and prescribes nationalist (insular, but appeal to the common person - benefits, Brits first approach) and libertarian (dog eat dog, survival of the fittest) medicine for the nation. Yet with a shrunk government and civil service. And the largest budgetary black hole of all the parties. Farage is as big a threat (if not bigger) to national security and stability than Corbyn.
Labour needs to succeed to avoid the spectre of Farage and collaborate with the left, centre and the right (yes Labour voters, the right also have good ideas) to govern in the best interests of the nation and steer us out of 14 straight years of decline. Zero room for complacency - look at Netherlands and now France as examples.
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Post by greenboy on Jul 6, 2024 14:14:59 GMT
All these Tories with their doomsday predictions and fear mongering makes me laugh. They have screwed the country up over 14 years. What do they have to show for it? The previous Labour (Blair) and Tory (Thatcher) governments for their eventual shortcomings could at least point to a list of achievements. What have the outgoing self-serving bunch of ideologues got to show for 14 years in government? The country is undoubtedly in a worse place on just about every metric. It really cannot get any worse than it already is. Truss was a nadir for this country and for the same party to issue out warnings over any other party is beyond parody. Good luck to Starmer, he will need it. He has 5 years to make a positive impact on the lives of those who have been let down and left behind. We need a run of global stability to settle markets and supply chains, but with populists and dictators in charge of the major countries the outlook doesn’t look great. That is beyond the control of any domestic government, but a policy to become self sustaining in our energy generation and to create a British energy company seems sensible. Much will depend on Labour’s ideas actually working and delivering jobs and better quality of life for everyone. I’m hoping Labour succeeds, because if they don’t we have 5 years of more failure and before you know it Farage will be Prime Minister. Then we really will be in trouble. It will be like Truss but tenfold worse. Except when people finally realise that foreigners aren’t actually the problem it will be too late, the damage will be done and irreversible as chunks of our national infrastructure are given over to private foreign companies and national debts and interest rates soar through the roof. The kind of circumstances that wars are borne out of. Reform policies on the surface look enticing to the average person, but once you dig into the details and the consequences they are the threat to the nation that all parties should be warning against. It’s basically Fascism in appeal (the foreigner is our enemy diluting our nation, no to communism, no to globalism, no to liberalism, no to conservatism) and prescribes nationalist (insular, but appeal to the common person - benefits, Brits first approach) and libertarian (dog eat dog, survival of the fittest) medicine for the nation. Yet with a shrunk government and civil service. And the largest budgetary black hole of all the parties. Farage is as big a threat (if not bigger) to national security and stability than Corbyn. Labour needs to succeed to avoid the spectre of Farage and collaborate with the left, centre and the right (yes Labour voters, the right also have good ideas) to govern in the best interests of the nation and steer us out of 14 straight years of decline. Zero room for complacency - look at Netherlands and now France as examples. If they've screwed the country up for fourteen years how did they win a landslide victory less than five years ago? The last five years have been difficult but who could have forseen the pandemic and the situation in Ukraine? Would Labour have done any better? I very much doubt it and I fear the Tory doomongers may well be right. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Jul 6, 2024 14:50:54 GMT
All these Tories with their doomsday predictions and fear mongering makes me laugh. They have screwed the country up over 14 years. What do they have to show for it? The previous Labour (Blair) and Tory (Thatcher) governments for their eventual shortcomings could at least point to a list of achievements. What have the outgoing self-serving bunch of ideologues got to show for 14 years in government? The country is undoubtedly in a worse place on just about every metric. It really cannot get any worse than it already is. Truss was a nadir for this country and for the same party to issue out warnings over any other party is beyond parody. Good luck to Starmer, he will need it. He has 5 years to make a positive impact on the lives of those who have been let down and left behind. We need a run of global stability to settle markets and supply chains, but with populists and dictators in charge of the major countries the outlook doesn’t look great. That is beyond the control of any domestic government, but a policy to become self sustaining in our energy generation and to create a British energy company seems sensible. Much will depend on Labour’s ideas actually working and delivering jobs and better quality of life for everyone. I’m hoping Labour succeeds, because if they don’t we have 5 years of more failure and before you know it Farage will be Prime Minister. Then we really will be in trouble. It will be like Truss but tenfold worse. Except when people finally realise that foreigners aren’t actually the problem it will be too late, the damage will be done and irreversible as chunks of our national infrastructure are given over to private foreign companies and national debts and interest rates soar through the roof. The kind of circumstances that wars are borne out of. Reform policies on the surface look enticing to the average person, but once you dig into the details and the consequences they are the threat to the nation that all parties should be warning against. It’s basically Fascism in appeal (the foreigner is our enemy diluting our nation, no to communism, no to globalism, no to liberalism, no to conservatism) and prescribes nationalist (insular, but appeal to the common person - benefits, Brits first approach) and libertarian (dog eat dog, survival of the fittest) medicine for the nation. Yet with a shrunk government and civil service. And the largest budgetary black hole of all the parties. Farage is as big a threat (if not bigger) to national security and stability than Corbyn. Labour needs to succeed to avoid the spectre of Farage and collaborate with the left, centre and the right (yes Labour voters, the right also have good ideas) to govern in the best interests of the nation and steer us out of 14 straight years of decline. Zero room for complacency - look at Netherlands and now France as examples. If they've screwed the country up for fourteen years how did they win a landslide victory less than five years ago? The last five years have been difficult but who could have forseen the pandemic and the situation in Ukraine? Would Labour have done any better? I very much doubt it and I fear the Tory doomongers may well be right. To be fair 2019 was hyped over the want of the country to satisfactorily resolve the Brexit issue and the media’s fear campaign lead by various businesses over Corbyn. In my opinion the last free will exercised by the people was 2015. Every subsequent election has been single issue resolutions, as seen in 2017 and 2019, or stopping the Tories, as seen in 2024. Hopefully 2029, if we make it 5 years, will return to a more normality for elections and we will see a far more equalised parliament. I didn’t vote for Labour but I’m not prepared to write them off in the immediate. I left the Tory party eight months ago as I wholeheartedly believe we were no longer the right party to lead this nation. |
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Post by buspete on Jul 6, 2024 16:16:43 GMT
All these Tories with their doomsday predictions and fear mongering makes me laugh. They have screwed the country up over 14 years. What do they have to show for it? The previous Labour (Blair) and Tory (Thatcher) governments for their eventual shortcomings could at least point to a list of achievements. What have the outgoing self-serving bunch of ideologues got to show for 14 years in government? The country is undoubtedly in a worse place on just about every metric. It really cannot get any worse than it already is. Truss was a nadir for this country and for the same party to issue out warnings over any other party is beyond parody. Good luck to Starmer, he will need it. He has 5 years to make a positive impact on the lives of those who have been let down and left behind. We need a run of global stability to settle markets and supply chains, but with populists and dictators in charge of the major countries the outlook doesn’t look great. That is beyond the control of any domestic government, but a policy to become self sustaining in our energy generation and to create a British energy company seems sensible. Much will depend on Labour’s ideas actually working and delivering jobs and better quality of life for everyone. I’m hoping Labour succeeds, because if they don’t we have 5 years of more failure and before you know it Farage will be Prime Minister. Then we really will be in trouble. It will be like Truss but tenfold worse. Except when people finally realise that foreigners aren’t actually the problem it will be too late, the damage will be done and irreversible as chunks of our national infrastructure are given over to private foreign companies and national debts and interest rates soar through the roof. The kind of circumstances that wars are borne out of. Reform policies on the surface look enticing to the average person, but once you dig into the details and the consequences they are the threat to the nation that all parties should be warning against. It’s basically Fascism in appeal (the foreigner is our enemy diluting our nation, no to communism, no to globalism, no to liberalism, no to conservatism) and prescribes nationalist (insular, but appeal to the common person - benefits, Brits first approach) and libertarian (dog eat dog, survival of the fittest) medicine for the nation. Yet with a shrunk government and civil service. And the largest budgetary black hole of all the parties. Farage is as big a threat (if not bigger) to national security and stability than Corbyn. Labour needs to succeed to avoid the spectre of Farage and collaborate with the left, centre and the right (yes Labour voters, the right also have good ideas) to govern in the best interests of the nation and steer us out of 14 straight years of decline. Zero room for complacency - look at Netherlands and now France as examples. If they've screwed the country up for fourteen years how did they win a landslide victory less than five years ago? The last five years have been difficult but who could have forseen the pandemic and the situation in Ukraine? Would Labour have done any better? I very much doubt it and I fear the Tory doomongers may well be right. Brexit. And Brexit is the reason they lost the last election. Ukraine and the Pandemic weren’t unique to these shores, Brexit was. |
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