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Post by buspete on May 25, 2024 15:05:50 GMT
Folk on here mentioned what London seats might switch and in recent polls the Conservatives have been tipped to lose everyone, my MP stood bailed yesterday David Evernett (Bexleyheath and Crayford) this one will certainly go to Labour.
I could see Liberals doing very well, not only in their strongholds of South West London, but also in Surrey, Sussex and the West Country, also the Tunbridge Wells MP jumped ship yesterday which the Liberals are tipped to win.
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 25, 2024 16:00:37 GMT
I agree with you and I still think Rishi is sending votes to the Lib Dems rather then Labour knowing full well it could lead to something more like a 3 way split and more likely to have another election soon after. I'm probably in a minority but I still don't see a Labour landslide with many safe Tory seats being Liberal or even Green. The Lib-Dems will do well in their South West strongholds (and I'm happy to vote for them to get the Tory incumbent out in my constituency), also in the South-West London area which is also a stronghold. However in much of the rest of the country the swing will be strongly to Labour, and Labour will also benefit from the troubles that are afflicting the SNP. The Green are only seriously contesting four seats; Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley (Suffolk) and North Herefordshire. They will probably retain Brighton and would be delighted to take Bristol Central as it would unseat a relatively high-profile Labour MP. We are likely to have one Independent MP (Jeremy Corbyn has a huge and loyal local following), possibly two if Diane Abbott does not regain the Labour whip. But in the grand scheme of things these are distractions. In Bristol Central almost all their Councillors are Green. Their Labour candidate Thangham is strictly speaking current MP for Bristol West so not the incumbent for very many voters. She could be a rare Labour casualty in this General Election. |
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Post by snowman on May 25, 2024 16:18:04 GMT
My local (conservative) MP has been quick to issue a letter which arrived in post today, saying General election called, vote for me.
What is interesting is the accompanying leaflet is headed with her name, and is very much branded as a good constituency MP that has done X, Y and Z. It's all about her and what she has done.
There is absolutely no mention of Conservative (until you get to the statutory tiny print at end with published by Conservatives at X address). Almost like disown the party, the individual is the reason to vote.
Remains in the Cabinet, but seems prefers not to include Conservative candidate on her info leaflets, just her name.
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Post by snowman on May 25, 2024 16:27:41 GMT
The Lib-Dems will do well in their South West strongholds (and I'm happy to vote for them to get the Tory incumbent out in my constituency), also in the South-West London area which is also a stronghold. However in much of the rest of the country the swing will be strongly to Labour, and Labour will also benefit from the troubles that are afflicting the SNP. The Green are only seriously contesting four seats; Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley (Suffolk) and North Herefordshire. They will probably retain Brighton and would be delighted to take Bristol Central as it would unseat a relatively high-profile Labour MP. We are likely to have one Independent MP (Jeremy Corbyn has a huge and loyal local following), possibly two if Diane Abbott does not regain the Labour whip. But in the grand scheme of things these are distractions. In Bristol Central almost all their Councillors are Green. Their Labour candidate Thangham is strictly speaking current MP for Bristol West so not the incumbent for very many voters. She could be a rare Labour casualty in this General Election. Bristol Central is a new constituency. Bristol Council is 34 Green Councillors, 20 Labour, 8 Lib Dem, 7 Conservative Labour will probably only get handful of seats in South West, all of those in cities (Bristol, Plymouth etc) |
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Post by southlondon413 on May 25, 2024 17:32:44 GMT
My local (conservative) MP has been quick to issue a letter which arrived in post today, saying General election called, vote for me. What is interesting is the accompanying leaflet is headed with her name, and is very much branded as a good constituency MP that has done X, Y and Z. It's all about her and what she has done. There is absolutely no mention of Conservative (until you get to the statutory tiny print at end with published by Conservatives at X address). Almost like disown the party, the individual is the reason to vote. Although strictly lost title MP yesterday upon dissolution, remains in Cabinet, but seems prefers not to include Conservative candidate on her info leaflets, just her name. Dissolution isn’t until close of business on May 30th. |
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Post by greenboy on May 25, 2024 18:38:01 GMT
Think it is more likely a change of tactic as opposed to him standing down, if he stands down nobody knows who will replace him and with what ideology. You could very well end up with someone even worse like Kemi Badenoch who would just alienate voters even further. It makes sense to effectively take Sunak down with the election then completely rebuild with whoever is left and then work your way from there. It's effectively what Labour have done since the last election. His PR team do need to pull their socks up though. No amount of sock pulling-upping can mask over 14 years of abject failure. Fourteen years of abject failure? They had a landslide election victory less than five years ago. |
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Post by southlondonbus on May 25, 2024 19:28:28 GMT
No amount of sock pulling-upping can mask over 14 years of abject failure. Fourteen years of abject failure? They had a landslide election victory less than five years ago. I'm not trying to defend them and some of their behaviour and decisions have been appalling, but I still they have had a bad time worldwise. The first 5 years they were ultimately a minority government, Brexit obviously destabilised markets but most of all covid that cost billions and still is in lost transport revenue etc from WFH. But any labour voter who thinks this is 1997 is so amazingly wrong. The late 90s were probably the most financially stable of all time. Bill Clinton actually eliminated a deficit by then (still had national debt obviously) and America was spending what it received. No way can that be said for Obama or Biden years which are pretty much the Tory years (2010 to present) Not to mention the other big Elephant in the room which is the aging population which as well and truly come home to roost now with most baby boomers now claiming their pensions with a smaller regular workforce to make pensions/hospital treatment sustainable. |
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Post by buspete on May 25, 2024 21:05:47 GMT
What does abject failure look like? Could be shops are being ransacked by gangs, with the police not bothering to turn up, could be prisoners on mobiles/in relationship with their prison officers and that is with prisons full, so prisoners are being released earlier, could be not getting a doctors appointment for weeks or having a lottery at 8am for a few places or waiting in A&E for 10 hours, could be the failure to build HS2 to Manchester/Leeds, could be lack of social care for care for pensioners, could be tenants rights with blocking no fault evictions, or lack of social housing etc or it could be merely axing of a local bus service.
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Post by southlondonbus on May 25, 2024 21:10:10 GMT
What does abject failure look like? Could be shops are being ransacked by gangs, with the police not bothering to turn up, could be prisoners on mobiles/in relationship with their prison officers and that is with prisons full, so prisoners are being released earlier, could be not getting a doctors appointment for weeks or having a lottery at 8am for a few places or waiting in A&E for 10 hours, could be the failure to build HS2 to Manchester/Leeds, could be lack of social care for care for pensioners, could be tenants rights with blocking no fault evictions, or lack of social housing etc or it could be merely axing of a local bus service. But some of those things do go on (and probably worse) in America and Canada which both have what would be described as socialist government's I would argue they are a sad reflection of the times as opposed to the doing of one party. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 25, 2024 21:48:54 GMT
Both parties seem to have announced interesting pledges today.
The Tories want to introduce mandatory national service for 18 year olds while the Labour Party wants to lower the voting age to 16. Notably extrapolation does show that if under 16s get the vote, should they all turn up to poll that it could see the Tories out of government permanently.
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Post by COBO on May 25, 2024 22:05:48 GMT
What are the chances of the Labour government restoring the HS2 link back to Manchester?
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Post by PGAT on May 25, 2024 22:08:56 GMT
What are the chances of the Labour government restoring the HS2 link back to Manchester? Not high but not zero |
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Post by capitalomnibus on May 26, 2024 13:03:50 GMT
In many ways yes but it’s also a good way to keep those rivals new stories to the back pages, after all no press is bad press and it’s all about public consciousness these days. It’s an odd strategy but I don’t think he does want to win, it’s more about damage control. But I think we’ll see a repeat of 2010 with a hung government and as Starmer has ruled out a coalition we should be prepared for at least 5 years of ineffective government. Really it feels a bit like Sunak has decided to destabilise what’s left of parliament. I don't think that Sunak will gather votes as a result of his trending. Boris was trending because people found his gaffs funny, even when he wasn't trying to be like the fridge incident. He also had a very strong message that people resonated with, Get Brexit Done. Sunak has none of these, he has no strong message at all and his gaffs aren't funny, they just make him look out of touch and away from reality. The people that probably still may have voted for him are more likely to be put off from it than to resonate with it. I think the 1997 style Tory MP departure numbers speaks a lot about how well this could go for Labour. Unless Labour self implode I think Starmer is ruling out coalitions because he won't need one. It was also said a lot of people had like Boris as he did not seem to be "the normal" politician, polished, no mistakes, robotic, formal etc and appeared as someone you would meet at the pub. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on May 26, 2024 13:05:15 GMT
I don't think that Sunak will gather votes as a result of his trending. Boris was trending because people found his gaffs funny, even when he wasn't trying to be like the fridge incident. He also had a very strong message that people resonated with, Get Brexit Done. Sunak has none of these, he has no strong message at all and his gaffs aren't funny, they just make him look out of touch and away from reality. The people that probably still may have voted for him are more likely to be put off from it than to resonate with it. I think the 1997 style Tory MP departure numbers speaks a lot about how well this could go for Labour. Unless Labour self implode I think Starmer is ruling out coalitions because he won't need one. I still think the public is rather on the fence about Starmer, he just seems disingenuous to me. I know we don’t vote for a PM but given the rather short term notice with many candidates still to be selected it feels like this election is very much a leader vote as opposed to a MP/party vote. If Labour win the election I expect there will be a lot of pressure on Starmer rather than his MPs and cabinet to deliver changes. I also think the media will place far more scrutiny on him than any PM before and I don’t think he’ll last a full term. Then we’ll end up with the pound shop rag to riches Rayner as PM. If Starmer does not win outright then it would be like wtf is going on with the public itself. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on May 26, 2024 13:15:39 GMT
Both parties seem to have announced interesting pledges today. The Tories want to introduce mandatory national service for 18 year olds while the Labour Party wants to lower the voting age to 16. Notably extrapolation does show that if under 16s get the vote, should they all turn up to poll that it could see the Tories out of government permanently. |
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