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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Feb 25, 2018 14:43:34 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be
Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM
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Post by kmkcheng on Feb 25, 2018 14:51:40 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM I would say it would be PV rather than PA that would close if Metroline had to close a garage. PA has the advantage of Perivale station for driver changes plus it is next door to their main engineering facility
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Post by kmkcheng on Feb 25, 2018 14:55:02 GMT
If Stagecoach has won it, wouldn’t it have been mentioned on the tfl tender results page the reason why they weren’t awarded it? They pulled out which is different. As they withdrew, TT won it instead - so Stagecoach entry basically didn't count in the end. I know about Abellio and 120, but they didn't withdraw themselves Would they have only found out it was only a 3 year contract after they had been awarded it? Sounds like someone didn’t do their homework if that was the case
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Post by sid on Feb 25, 2018 15:00:25 GMT
They pulled out which is different. As they withdrew, TT won it instead - so Stagecoach entry basically didn't count in the end. I know about Abellio and 120, but they didn't withdraw themselves Would they have only found out it was only a 3 year contract after they had been awarded it? Sounds like someone didn’t do their homework if that was the case That sounds a bit unlikely quite honestly.
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Post by vjaska on Feb 25, 2018 15:07:07 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM Whose to say any garage will close as garages are a premium for operators because there are not as many as there once was and the more you close, the harder it becomes to operate routes because distances potentially increase. I also think it’s in poor taste to start talking about garage closures even if they are a few years away but that’s just my view.
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Post by busoccultation on Feb 25, 2018 15:08:19 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM For Arriva I would nominate EC to close as it currently a more or less a glorified outstation for the 123 & 259 and used as to store many buses that are withdrawn or new buses that yet to enter service.
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Post by sid on Feb 25, 2018 15:13:28 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM If that happens then some garage closures are surely inevitable and the ones you've mentioned could indeed be at risk.
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Post by paulsw2 on Feb 25, 2018 15:48:21 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM I personally think that no garages will close as capacity at most garages is full to bursting (i know there are exceptions) but the operators are aware how hard it is to find new operational bases now and it will become even more difficult as land/sites get snapped up by developers etc by having smaller allocations at each garage may well assist in the problems of outstanding at Christmas and the problems associated with the run in at end of evening peak and end of service.
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Feb 25, 2018 15:58:23 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM I personally think that no garages will close as capacity at most garages is full to bursting (i know there are exceptions) but the operators are aware how hard it is to find new operational bases now and it will become even more difficult as land/sites get snapped up by developers etc by having smaller allocations at each garage may well assist in the problems of outstanding at Christmas and the problems associated with the run in at end of evening peak and end of service. Yes, space does seem scarce for new bus operating bases, even allowing for MG & KB, or even RP. For the first few years of route tendering, operators were able to bid for small batches of routes and find a base for them. Nowadays, newcomers even if they reach the TfL approved contractors list can only break into London bus tendering from established bases (eg Uno) or by buying into a significant existing operation (eg Tower Transit). No wonder the total list of TfL bus contractors has not changed for nearly 3 years.
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Post by snowman on Feb 25, 2018 16:11:16 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM Think there is a flaw as some routes seem to be gaining 10.9m single decks instead of 10.2m, similarly many recent double decks are nearer 10.6m so 0-5% could be taken due to bigger buses. The sale value of a site would have to exceed cost of operating routes from other garages
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Post by paulsw2 on Feb 25, 2018 18:08:10 GMT
also using Vjaska's fleetlist (the completed sections) a 7% cut would mean Abellio losing 53 buses from 6 garages Arriva losing 121 from 16 garages CT plus 9 from 2 GAL 167 from 17 Metroline 120 from 14 RATP 77 from 10 Stagecoach 85 from 9 and Sullicans 4i TT would lose 29 It would mean most garages would lose up to about 10 vehicles (this list is slightly inaccurate as withdrawn vehicles are included in the total before the 7% cut)
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Post by snoggle on Feb 25, 2018 18:15:13 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Abellio WS Arriva SF Go-Ahead PL RATP S Metroline PA Stagecoach RM Several flaws in your argument there. I can't see Go Ahead relinquishing garage space in an area where it has a very strong base of routes and is arguably short of garage space. Arriva are equally short of garage space in North London and are more likely to lose EC due to redevelopment / compulsory purchase. No way are they going to give up SF voluntarily. I suspect Arriva would love to keep EC if they could because Meridian Water will need more bus services so having a garage slap bang in the middle to compete with GAL's NP would make sense. Places like WS and RM are in areas subject to large scale redevelopment, known route expansion and the advent of Crossrail. These are areas that are more likely to gain what scraps fall from TfL's table when it comes to expansion in Outer London. RATP have committed to making S an all electric garage and it is, again, a stronghold for them so why on earth would they close an enormously valuable asset in an area with strong bus demand? The only one I am unsure about is PA but then I lose track as to what is where and what is open or closed in Metroline land. It is worth considering that in an area that may be redeveloped with increased transport services likely in the short term (to support construction activity - more likely private hire work) and more TfL routes medium to long term there may be strategic strength in retaining garage space. I suspect operators will try very, very hard to avoid garage closures if they can. It is almost impossible to open new bus garages anywhere in London if there is any residential property nearby. Therefore if you close and sell off garages you are potentially hobbling your business beyond any short term cash in the bank. If you wish to permanently cede part of your business to competitors you close garages. If you wish to remain competitive then you probably keep them but try to run them as efficiently as possible if there are short term route losses / PVR reductions. At some point the idiocy of TfL's current financial situation will reverse out given a better prospect for bus operation. It's the next 2 years which are absolutely hellish.
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Post by VPL630 on Feb 25, 2018 22:15:57 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Stagecoach RM Please tell me where you'd find space for 111 buses ? Even if you took a bus off every route you'd still have to find space for over 100 buses, I doubt any garages will close
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Post by ThinLizzy on Feb 26, 2018 12:43:49 GMT
There are apparently plans for a net reduction of 7% to the London bus network by 2022/23. I think this was effective from 2017/18, when we started with a pvr of 8174. This points to an approximate reduction of 572. I wonder how many garages, if any, will close. If I had to name 1 garage per big company to close, they would be Stagecoach RM Please tell me where you'd find space for 111 buses ? Even if you took a bus off every route you'd still have to find space for over 100 buses, I doubt any garages will close RM closing has always been a favourite "speculation" of Mr 1511. I really can't see any Stagecoach garage closing over the next 5 years, unless something massive happens in the tendering market where it looses a massive group of routes (which I can't see.) Equally, theres a fair few routes up for grabs in the next few years (123, 128, 193 etc etc)
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Post by sid on Feb 26, 2018 13:24:12 GMT
Please tell me where you'd find space for 111 buses ? Even if you took a bus off every route you'd still have to find space for over 100 buses, I doubt any garages will close RM closing has always been a favourite "speculation" of Mr 1511. I really can't see any Stagecoach garage closing over the next 5 years, unless something massive happens in the tendering market where it looses a massive group of routes (which I can't see.) Equally, theres a fair few routes up for grabs in the next few years (123, 128, 193 etc etc) Surely WH would be the most likely being TfL owned?
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