|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Apr 23, 2017 17:05:08 GMT
Surprised I didn't go searching for this thread earlier....  Its never good to make definite predictions over a general election ditto any election for that matter, but in my belief, labour will be flushed down the loo for some good time now. Corbyn's promise of 4 more bank holidays is absolutely ludicrous, especially as most will be concentrated in the April/ May time of year. As for Lib Dems, I would expect them to fight back, but to what extent we will just have to see. The fact that they are good at retaining local seats (including my constituency  ) must help them. But for the love of god, I really hope that UKIP and the Greens don't gain any popularity and/ or influence in government. We are living in strange and interesting times, and this is about to become even more different...... They certainly weren't good at retaining local seats last time around. Personally I think that the result would end up being a conservative majority. How big that majority is would be anyone's guess. |
|
|
|
Post by 725DYE on Apr 23, 2017 17:08:59 GMT
Surprised I didn't go searching for this thread earlier.... Its never good to make definite predictions over a general election ditto any election for that matter, but in my belief, labour will be flushed down the loo for some good time now. Corbyn's promise of 4 more bank holidays is absolutely ludicrous, especially as most will be concentrated in the April/ May time of year. As for Lib Dems, I would expect them to fight back, but to what extent we will just have to see. The fact that they are good at retaining local seats (including my constituency ) must help them. But for the love of god, I really hope that UKIP and the Greens don't gain any popularity and/ or influence in government. We are living in strange and interesting times, and this is about to become even more different...... They certainly weren't good at retaining local seats last time around. Personally I think that the result would end up being a conservative majority. How big that majority is would be anyone's guess. Sorry I meant my local seat  . I would expect a conservative majority that is a little larger than what it is now |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on Apr 23, 2017 23:18:57 GMT
They certainly weren't good at retaining local seats last time around. Personally I think that the result would end up being a conservative majority. How big that majority is would be anyone's guess. One of the scenarios going round is that despite all the effort of an election it is plausible that Mrs May could be returned with no change to her majority [1]. This is because even if Labour fare badly many of their seats are very difficult to lose while the Tories are vulnerable to Lib Dem gains in some areas which would offset any gains the Tories may make in some marginal seats (e.g. a few London seats with slim majorities for Labour). Of course it may well be different from that but I'm sceptical that the Tories will end up with a huge majority. UKIP are unlikely to do anything given the Tories have nicked their clothes and Labour voted in support of Brexit which may see off the threat in Northern "leave" supporting seats. Nuttall doesn't even have the support of Farage which just reinforces the mess that UKIP are in (oh, *what* a shame  ) [1] from electoral expert Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University. |
|
|
|
Post by ben on Apr 28, 2017 16:28:53 GMT
The one thing the conservatives are extremely good at is keeping their own internal differences low key. Portillo or Major or Clarke might occasionally come out and call cabinet members out, but its quickly downplayed and swept under the carpet. Now whether that's because Conservative party members/donors effectively have editorial sway over the vast majority of media, including the BBC, is a good question, but it serves to amplify the factionalism within other parties. The average beliefs of the Lib Dem voter and the passion of local councillors seems to be at odds with some of the so called 'orange bookers' higher up the party. Likewise for labour, where the majority of the MPs and HQ staff were appointed under a previous centre-right-liberal politicians' regime, and thus have fundamental and irreconcilable disagreements and differences with Corbyns' democratic socialism.
A landslide for any party is bad for meaningful democratic oversight, especially if they are able to command media and financial sector interests too. Any organisation with vested interests breeds corruption, which is why its essential to have something of a yin and yang, with ideally an independent and impartial third agency that can fact check, research, give people some raw data that has integrity, lest an information and power cartel emerge.
|
|
|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 13, 2017 14:56:17 GMT
Of the 3 London seats that the Liberal Democrats lost to Labour in 2015, I think Bermondsey & Old Southwark could return to the LibDems. Simon Hughes had built up a comparatively strong vote there. It even remained LibDem during the Labour landslides. As Labour majorities at Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green were over 10,000 I think Labour will keep these seats.
|
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on May 13, 2017 15:45:26 GMT
Of the 3 London seats that the Liberal Democrats lost to Labour in 2015, I think Bermondsey & Old Southwark could return to the LibDems. Simon Hughes had built up a comparatively strong vote there. It even remained LibDem during the Labour landslides. As Labour majorities at Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green were over 10,000 I think Labour will keep these seats. The bigger risks are seats like Kilburn and Hampstead, Ilford North, Ealing Central & Acton and also Brentford and Isleworth. I'm really not sure that Simon Hughes has the ability to claw his way back. In far too manys he's a tainted politician and, let's be honest, he had a very long tenure in Bermondsey & Old Southwark. I think this General Election is a monstrous waste of time and money and totally unnecessary. I also feel really rather p*ssed off for all the new MPs elected in 2015, regardless of party, who've barely got to grips with the job and now face having to fight a general election campaign with little track record. The government really should not have been able to call this election now regardless of the fact that MPs duly trotted into the lobbies and like Turkeys, some of them voted for Christmas. |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on May 13, 2017 15:50:30 GMT
Of the 3 London seats that the Liberal Democrats lost to Labour in 2015, I think Bermondsey & Old Southwark could return to the LibDems. Simon Hughes had built up a comparatively strong vote there. It even remained LibDem during the Labour landslides. As Labour majorities at Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green were over 10,000 I think Labour will keep these seats. The bigger risks are seats like Kilburn and Hampstead, Ilford North, Ealing Central & Acton and also Brentford and Isleworth. I'm really not sure that Simon Hughes has the ability to claw his way back. In far too manys he's a tainted politician and, let's be honest, he had a very long tenure in Bermondsey & Old Southwark. I think this General Election is a monstrous waste of time and money and totally unnecessary. I also feel really rather p*ssed off for all the new MPs elected in 2015, regardless of party, who've barely got to grips with the job and now face having to fight a general election campaign with little track record. The government really should not have been able to call this election now regardless of the fact that MPs duly trotted into the lobbies and like Turkeys, some of them voted for Christmas. Completely agree there, it's a huge waste of time and taxpayers money. The Prime Minister has seen this as an opportunity to increase her party's power within the House of Commons and to try and annihilate the Labour party as their current state is only making her more and more powerful. I don't actually see how this General election is going to benefit anyone at all. |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on May 13, 2017 16:43:02 GMT
I don't actually see how this General election is going to benefit anyone at all. Precisely. I don't even think it will benefit Empress Theresa for very long even if she gains a big majority. That will only create unreal expectations with the Tory Party and her rivals will be waiting with a dagger to finish her off at the first opportunity. Big majorities are a double edged sword and it is all too easy to get things dreadfully wrong. That was true for Thatcher and for Blair. When the opposition is weak you get bad government (regardless of party). That last thing we need now is bad government and let's be honest the government since the 2015 election was pretty dreadful under Cameron and May. She's u-turned so many times it's ridiculous and he was crushed by his own inflated self confidence. I've no objection to PMs going to the country after 4-5 years even if their timing was often "opportunistic". This time, though, I'm bl**dy furious with the woman and with those who voted to trigger this election. I'm not going to forget this reckless act for a very long time. |
|
|
|
Post by redexpress on May 13, 2017 17:02:59 GMT
I don't actually see how this General election is going to benefit anyone at all. Precisely. I don't even think it will benefit Empress Theresa for very long even if she gains a big majority. That will only create unreal expectations with the Tory Party and her rivals will be waiting with a dagger to finish her off at the first opportunity. Big majorities are a double edged sword and it is all too easy to get things dreadfully wrong. That was true for Thatcher and for Blair. When the opposition is weak you get bad government (regardless of party). That last thing we need now is bad government and let's be honest the government since the 2015 election was pretty dreadful under Cameron and May. She's u-turned so many times it's ridiculous and he was crushed by his own inflated self confidence. I've no objection to PMs going to the country after 4-5 years even if their timing was often "opportunistic". This time, though, I'm bl**dy furious with the woman and with those who voted to trigger this election. I'm not going to forget this reckless act for a very long time. Pretty much agree with all this, but I'm not sure I'd be too critical of the MPs who voted for the election. As much as I agree this election is the last thing this country needs, I don't think they had much of a choice - if they'd managed to scramble enough votes to scupper the election call the MPs would have been lambasted in the press as being anti-democratic or some such nonsense. If anything Ms May would have gained even more support as a result. For me the blame lies squarely with the one who decided to call the election in the first place. Which makes a mockery of the idea of fixed parliaments really, because it's unlikely there will ever be a scenario where the majority of MPs vote against holding an election. |
|
|
|
Post by snoggle on May 13, 2017 17:15:53 GMT
Which makes a mockery of the idea of fixed parliaments really, because it's unlikely there will ever be a scenario where the majority of MPs vote against holding an election. Well if nothing else it has shown the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to be a complete and utter sham. It should be taken off the statute books. |
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on May 13, 2017 18:25:36 GMT
Whilst I agree with what people have said, I can't knock Mrs May for wanting to increase her majority - if I was in her position, I'd do the exact same thing.
At the end of the day, it still leaves me having no clue which way to vote unless Labour do a unlikely pushing out of Corbyn!
|
|
|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 14, 2017 11:14:04 GMT
Of the 3 London seats that the Liberal Democrats lost to Labour in 2015, I think Bermondsey & Old Southwark could return to the LibDems. Simon Hughes had built up a comparatively strong vote there. It even remained LibDem during the Labour landslides. As Labour majorities at Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green were over 10,000 I think Labour will keep these seats. The bigger risks are seats like Kilburn and Hampstead, Ilford North, Ealing Central & Acton and also Brentford and Isleworth. I'm really not sure that Simon Hughes has the ability to claw his way back. In far too manys he's a tainted politician and, let's be honest, he had a very long tenure in Bermondsey & Old Southwark. I think this General Election is a monstrous waste of time and money and totally unnecessary. I also feel really rather p*ssed off for all the new MPs elected in 2015, regardless of party, who've barely got to grips with the job and now face having to fight a general election campaign with little track record. The government really should not have been able to call this election now regardless of the fact that MPs duly trotted into the lobbies and like Turkeys, some of them voted for Christmas. Another risk seat is Carshalton & Wallington. I think it could be like the Richmond Park by-election in reverse. By that I mean that it voted Leave, and a few UKIP voters or even Labour Leave voters could vote Conservative, handing them the seat from Tom Brake of the Liberal Democrats. |
|
|
|
Post by 725DYE on May 14, 2017 11:57:19 GMT
The bigger risks are seats like Kilburn and Hampstead, Ilford North, Ealing Central & Acton and also Brentford and Isleworth. I'm really not sure that Simon Hughes has the ability to claw his way back. In far too manys he's a tainted politician and, let's be honest, he had a very long tenure in Bermondsey & Old Southwark. I think this General Election is a monstrous waste of time and money and totally unnecessary. I also feel really rather p*ssed off for all the new MPs elected in 2015, regardless of party, who've barely got to grips with the job and now face having to fight a general election campaign with little track record. The government really should not have been able to call this election now regardless of the fact that MPs duly trotted into the lobbies and like Turkeys, some of them voted for Christmas. Another risk seat is Carshalton & Wallington. I think it could be like the Richmond Park by-election in reverse. By that I mean that it voted Leave, and a few UKIP voters or even Labour Leave voters could vote Conservative, handing them the seat from Tom Brake of the Liberal Democrats. Ugh I've had enough of Tom Brake in the area lol |
|
|
|
Post by MetrolineGA1511 on May 14, 2017 19:34:03 GMT
Another risk seat is Carshalton & Wallington. I think it could be like the Richmond Park by-election in reverse. By that I mean that it voted Leave, and a few UKIP voters or even Labour Leave voters could vote Conservative, handing them the seat from Tom Brake of the Liberal Democrats. Ugh I've had enough of Tom Brake in the area lol Having seen your profile and your like of routes 127 & 157 for example, I realise you are probably speaking from experience of having him as your MP! Some of Theresa May's visits around London have been to marginal Labour areas such as Brentford, Enfield and Harrow. Apologies for any I have omitted, unless any readers there preferred not to be reminded anyway! |
|
|
|
Post by snowman on Jun 9, 2017 4:38:55 GMT
For those waiting for consultations etc.
Election purdah continues until an effective Government is formed, so based on results (currently about 40 seats still to declare), looks like it may continue for few days.
|
|
) must help them. But for the love of god, I really hope that UKIP and the Greens don't gain any popularity and/ or influence in government.
. I would expect a conservative majority that is a little larger than what it is now
)
