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Post by danorak on Aug 8, 2020 16:05:24 GMT
I believe your correct because correct me if I'm wrong but both schemes in London were deemed successful but were discontinued due to cost? The Oxford scheme "Pick Me Up" was considered to be successful in terms of passenger numbers (capacity was sometimes an issue) but it did not break even so was discontinued after its two-year trial funding. The Go2 scheme in the Sevenoaks area is also considered successful, however this is subsidised by Kent County Council and replaces standard bus services which the Council was already funding, it just uses the resources differently. Roger French, former CEO of Go-Ahead Brighton & Hove, is of the opinion that DRT cannot be provided commercially, it needs to be funded in some way (he has written about this on his "Bus and Train User" blog which I follow). However the current Government may be more willing to fund such services as a way of encouraging modal shift away from cars. The most likely application for DRT is to be as a way of maintaining and improving services to rural areas and acting as a feeder to support commercial trunk routes. We've seen with 'dial a bus' schemes in the past that after a while, a pattern of travel is established which leads to a fixed route, cutting out the overhead involved with 'demand responsive'. The companies providing the tech, like ViaVan etc, want their slice of any profit which can make them expensive.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Aug 8, 2020 16:09:48 GMT
The problem is the Bailout won't last forever and buses aren't even carrying the 30-38 passengers which was the reason for returning to nearly full service with the Bailout to make up the difference. I rode a 378 from PB to Mortlake yday, and was 1 of 3 people on it ( and one had a freedom pass) then took a 209, excatly the same and everything bus in Barnes was the same. What is being shown is that the level of service still in excess of even allowing only 30 people on a DD . I'd look at some quick gains like the 21 temporarily cut to LB (rest covered by a lightly used 141) the 414 suspended outright for the next few months etc etc. It will be devastating for the future of public transport if TFL have to start borrowing money to prop it up once the Bailout is gone. Indeed and the empty 414 service has been mentioned before and I'm not sure the 21 extension to Newington Green was ever justified, the 141 is certainly more than adequate now. Just stand on London Bridge and watch all the near empty buses going back and forth, how much longer can it continue? Many firms in the City have said it will be next year at the earliest before any staff return and even that is doubtful. If the 47 was curtailed at London Bridge maybe Stagecoach could put a few double deckers on the 124 between Catford and Downham/Grove Park but not serving North Downham Estate. The single deckers with a capacity of 11 struggle at busy times. If anything if the Bakerloo line extension goes ahead along with the 453 the 21 could be obselete if such a cut happens
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Post by greenboy on Aug 8, 2020 16:11:23 GMT
Indeed and the empty 414 service has been mentioned before and I'm not sure the 21 extension to Newington Green was ever justified, the 141 is certainly more than adequate now. Just stand on London Bridge and watch all the near empty buses going back and forth, how much longer can it continue? Many firms in the City have said it will be next year at the earliest before any staff return and even that is doubtful. If the 47 was curtailed at London Bridge maybe Stagecoach could put a few double deckers on the 124 between Catford and Downham/Grove Park but not serving North Downham Estate. The single deckers with a capacity of 11 struggle at busy times. If anything if the Bakerloo line extension goes ahead along with the 453 the 21 could be obselete if such a cut happens Or 53 cut back to New Cross?
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Post by danorak on Aug 8, 2020 16:12:31 GMT
The problem is the Bailout won't last forever and buses aren't even carrying the 30-38 passengers which was the reason for returning to nearly full service with the Bailout to make up the difference. I rode a 378 from PB to Mortlake yday, and was 1 of 3 people on it ( and one had a freedom pass) then took a 209, excatly the same and everything bus in Barnes was the same. What is being shown is that the level of service still in excess of even allowing only 30 people on a DD . I'd look at some quick gains like the 21 temporarily cut to LB (rest covered by a lightly used 141) the 414 suspended outright for the next few months etc etc. It will be devastating for the future of public transport if TFL have to start borrowing money to prop it up once the Bailout is gone. The route & area you use as an example is a poor example because we all know that bus provision in Barnes is all over the place even before the pandemic with some routes quiet and others rammed like the 533 and the 378 has generally carried very small loads since it's introduction. The Bailout occurred because TfL's reserves had disappeared almost entirely (I'm not getting into the rights and wrongs of that) and the return to service was a mix of mainly clawing revenue back but also to aid social distancing because no can accurately predict it. In Brixton, buses are getting busier & busier and I've even spotted buses that had more than the capacity they should have so it really depends on the area - there is no one size fits all solution. Don't take this the wrong way but your quick gains sound more like jumping the gun - it's far too soon to analyse the impact given routes have only recently returned to a normal service and some are still waiting to do so - in a few months, we'll know for better or for worse. It's also the summer, which is always a bad time to make judgements on traffic levels anyway. Schools aren't back, people are on holiday and still don't feel entirely safe on public transport. I love WFH but not everyone has the space, mentality or job to do it and it's a different story cycling in the autumn/winter as the temperature drops, the rain comes down, and the days get shorter.
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 8, 2020 17:15:05 GMT
The Oxford scheme "Pick Me Up" was considered to be successful in terms of passenger numbers (capacity was sometimes an issue) but it did not break even so was discontinued after its two-year trial funding. The Go2 scheme in the Sevenoaks area is also considered successful, however this is subsidised by Kent County Council and replaces standard bus services which the Council was already funding, it just uses the resources differently. Roger French, former CEO of Go-Ahead Brighton & Hove, is of the opinion that DRT cannot be provided commercially, it needs to be funded in some way (he has written about this on his "Bus and Train User" blog which I follow). However the current Government may be more willing to fund such services as a way of encouraging modal shift away from cars. The most likely application for DRT is to be as a way of maintaining and improving services to rural areas and acting as a feeder to support commercial trunk routes. We've seen with 'dial a bus' schemes in the past that after a while, a pattern of travel is established which leads to a fixed route, cutting out the overhead involved with 'demand responsive'. The companies providing the tech, like ViaVan etc, want their slice of any profit which can make them expensive. Your first sentence describes more-or-less what Lincolnshire County Council have been doing with their "Call Connect" services for some years now. In several designated areas DRT minibuses feed passengers from small villages and outlying housing estates into the core interurban bus routes (and some rail routes), as well as working as into town routes in their own right.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 8, 2020 17:30:32 GMT
Indeed and the empty 414 service has been mentioned before and I'm not sure the 21 extension to Newington Green was ever justified, the 141 is certainly more than adequate now. Just stand on London Bridge and watch all the near empty buses going back and forth, how much longer can it continue? Many firms in the City have said it will be next year at the earliest before any staff return and even that is doubtful. If the 47 was curtailed at London Bridge maybe Stagecoach could put a few double deckers on the 124 between Catford and Downham/Grove Park but not serving North Downham Estate. The single deckers with a capacity of 11 struggle at busy times. If anything if the Bakerloo line extension goes ahead along with the 453 the 21 could be obselete if such a cut happens Not necessarily, the 2 continued running alongside the Victoria Line between Victoria & Brixton after it was built despite the super high frequency of the Victoria Line and how busy it is.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Aug 8, 2020 18:42:42 GMT
If anything if the Bakerloo line extension goes ahead along with the 453 the 21 could be obselete if such a cut happens Or 53 cut back to New Cross? Absolutely not the 53 is incredibly busy and would keep a link from Deptford to roughly Central London. The 53 could maybe then return to Whitehall.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Aug 8, 2020 18:44:04 GMT
If anything if the Bakerloo line extension goes ahead along with the 453 the 21 could be obselete if such a cut happens Not necessarily, the 2 continued running alongside the Victoria Line between Victoria & Brixton after it was built despite the super high frequency of the Victoria Line and how busy it is. That's 4 stops. The Bakerloo would follow it its entire route except the route between New Cross Gate and Deptford, which is followed by the 53.
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Post by greenboy on Aug 8, 2020 18:52:34 GMT
Or 53 cut back to New Cross? Absolutely not the 53 is incredibly busy and would keep a link from Deptford to roughly Central London. The 53 could maybe then return to Whitehall. I don't see any liklihood of the 53 returning to Whitehall...... and it really isn't that busy nowadays.
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Post by greg on Aug 8, 2020 19:08:26 GMT
The route & area you use as an example is a poor example because we all know that bus provision in Barnes is all over the place even before the pandemic with some routes quiet and others rammed like the 533 and the 378 has generally carried very small loads since it's introduction. The Bailout occurred because TfL's reserves had disappeared almost entirely (I'm not getting into the rights and wrongs of that) and the return to service was a mix of mainly clawing revenue back but also to aid social distancing because no can accurately predict it. In Brixton, buses are getting busier & busier and I've even spotted buses that had more than the capacity they should have so it really depends on the area - there is no one size fits all solution. Don't take this the wrong way but your quick gains sound more like jumping the gun - it's far too soon to analyse the impact given routes have only recently returned to a normal service and some are still waiting to do so - in a few months, we'll know for better or for worse. Talking of busy buses a EL1 I spotted at Ilford during the week was well over capacity. In Green Street today, exact same as the 58! Most people werent wearing masks on the streets, buses and aswell as it going back to normal I defo see a second wave coming soon, people are being too quick and not having caution.
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Post by greg on Aug 8, 2020 19:20:00 GMT
Speaking of buses under capacity, don’t think they should cut or anything like that. In my opinion, they really should cut some night routes temporarily, or even merge them. Not many things are open at night, so you could provide hourly services on some night routes and a strict timetable on night routes for late night workers, but theres no pubs or anything open during the night. They should temporarily remove some 24 hour weekend/daily services, the 27 is an example, with only 3 buses running during the night. Thing I said about merge, is you could merge the N25 and N86. The N25 is currently the same length as the day route and could be extended much farther east (the N8 goes to Hainault) so if you extended the N25 to Harold Hill and got rid of the N86 that’s another way. Another example is to get rid of the N53 temporarily and keep the 453 running 24 hours. Past Deptford doesn’t have that much demand anyways.
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Post by rift on Aug 8, 2020 19:35:53 GMT
Speaking of buses under capacity, don’t think they should cut or anything like that. In my opinion, they really should cut some night routes temporarily, or even merge them. Not many things are open at night, so you could provide hourly services on some night routes and a strict timetable on night routes for late night workers, but theres no pubs or anything open during the night. They should temporarily remove some 24 hour weekend/daily services, the 27 is an example, with only 3 buses running during the night. Thing I said about merge, is you could merge the N25 and N86. The N25 is currently the same length as the day route and could be extended much farther east (the N8 goes to Hainault) so if you extended the N25 to Harold Hill and got rid of the N86 that’s another way. Another example is to get rid of the N53 temporarily and keep the 453 running 24 hours. Past Deptford doesn’t have that much demand anyways. This would leave the area east of Deptford on the N53 routing up to Woolwich without a night service, bar the 108 at Royal Standard, and I don’t feel like it has little demand.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 8, 2020 20:06:42 GMT
Not necessarily, the 2 continued running alongside the Victoria Line between Victoria & Brixton after it was built despite the super high frequency of the Victoria Line and how busy it is. That's 4 stops. The Bakerloo would follow it its entire route except the route between New Cross Gate and Deptford, which is followed by the 53. The Bakerloo will serve Lewisham, New Cross, and one to two stations along Old Kent Road - the 21 then bends away from the Bakerloo Line never to go near again. The 21 was the route you said would be obsolete. As for the Victoria Line, it's 5 stops (Brixton, Stockwell, Vauxhall, Pimlico & Victoria) and bar Pimlico, the other stops are all busy especially Victoria & Brixton which would likely remain more busy than Lewisham.
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Post by vjaska on Aug 8, 2020 20:09:37 GMT
Speaking of buses under capacity, don’t think they should cut or anything like that. In my opinion, they really should cut some night routes temporarily, or even merge them. Not many things are open at night, so you could provide hourly services on some night routes and a strict timetable on night routes for late night workers, but theres no pubs or anything open during the night. They should temporarily remove some 24 hour weekend/daily services, the 27 is an example, with only 3 buses running during the night. Thing I said about merge, is you could merge the N25 and N86. The N25 is currently the same length as the day route and could be extended much farther east (the N8 goes to Hainault) so if you extended the N25 to Harold Hill and got rid of the N86 that’s another way. Another example is to get rid of the N53 temporarily and keep the 453 running 24 hours. Past Deptford doesn’t have that much demand anyways. If you reduce night routes to hourly, then shift workers would likely vote with their feet - as for merging night routes, it all depends on how worthwhile that is - remember that just because the N8 goes further east doesn't automatically mean the N25 should be merged over the N86.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Aug 8, 2020 20:46:25 GMT
@greg I do hope you realize that the N53 gets much more use than the N453. I've suggested for the N453 to go with the N53 extended to Oxford Circus in its place and having shorts running to Deptford as appropriate.
Also, like many Gellico stated, due to a massive black hole in bus services in the Upper Belvedere & Lessness Heath areas, people would likely still need to go to the end with people walking from there. The N89 is also the same, many people need to walk from Erith to areas very far flung from the night bus network as is with the N1. I think it's a similar situation with the N55.
The N25 & N86 have two very different frequencies and I suspect they should be kept as simply as possible, as much as I'd like a Central London to Harold Hill route, I'd certainly catch the tube to Stratford and then catch the bus to Harold Hill or get the 6bph N15
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