2021... Your predictions

[greenboy]

Dec 28, 2020 19:05:23 GMT @busenthusiast56 said:

Dec 28, 2020 18:39:08 GMT vjaska said:

They won’t go back to the levels they were occupied but I actually predict that offices will still be fairly populated enough to have them around still as many office workers during the pandemic have actually spoke about how working from home isn’t for them due to them missing the office atmosphere and banter whilst others said that working from home isn’t practical on a permanent basis.

The biggest change I think will see is more places refusing to take cash - Covid really has finished off cash payments as pre Covid, I rarely paid for offline things by card but since March, I now almost exclusively pay for everything by card

I think it will come down to individual employers and how the government incentivises employers to bring them back, maybe some sort of tax relief. As long as staff are productive most companies are happy, mine certainly is. But in a way it could be a good way to revitalise town centres outside of central London, companies like Pret could be attracted to more towns in outer boroughs to better attract home office workers to spend money with them. Speaking personally in an ideal world my employer will allow us to do a mixture of home and office working. I haven’t used cash for years and I don’t intend to except for trips to Europe when working, it’s easier to track expenses through cash. 

Yes I've made that point before that people working from home are likely to be spending more money in their local community and a lot of pubs and coffee shops are offering deals to attract them.

[ronnie]

Dec 28, 2020 21:25:07 GMT greenboy said:

Dec 28, 2020 19:05:23 GMT @busenthusiast56 said:

I think it will come down to individual employers and how the government incentivises employers to bring them back, maybe some sort of tax relief. As long as staff are productive most companies are happy, mine certainly is. But in a way it could be a good way to revitalise town centres outside of central London, companies like Pret could be attracted to more towns in outer boroughs to better attract home office workers to spend money with them. Speaking personally in an ideal world my employer will allow us to do a mixture of home and office working. I haven’t used cash for years and I don’t intend to except for trips to Europe when working, it’s easier to track expenses through cash. 

Yes I've made that point before that people working from home are likely to be spending more money in their local community and a lot of pubs and coffee shops are offering deals to attract them.

I think what will end up happening is that there will be some level of home working now getting built in. My office was almost impossible to do any work from home previously (old school attitude) and now I havn’t been in office since March. Of course there is increasing pull to come back .... but realistically what will happen is that there will be a hybrid model of 3-4 days from office and 1-2 days from home

I increasingly sense a feeling of “tiredness” of working from home. It’s fine for a few days / weeks but having WFH for 10 months now a fair number of people are keen to see other people / colleagues in person - and once a vaccine is there I guess more people will come back. Especially people who are single / living alone for sure. For people like us with infants I don’t think we have even sensed when time has flown as young kids keep you busy!

[Deleted]

Dec 28, 2020 22:03:40 GMT ronnie said:

Dec 28, 2020 21:25:07 GMT greenboy said:

Yes I've made that point before that people working from home are likely to be spending more money in their local community and a lot of pubs and coffee shops are offering deals to attract them.

I think what will end up happening is that there will be some level of home working now getting built in. My office was almost impossible to do any work from home previously (old school attitude) and now I havn’t been in office since March. Of course there is increasing pull to come back .... but realistically what will happen is that there will be a hybrid model of 3-4 days from office and 1-2 days from home

I increasingly sense a feeling of “tiredness” of working from home. It’s fine for a few days / weeks but having WFH for 10 months now a fair number of people are keen to see other people / colleagues in person - and once a vaccine is there I guess more people will come back. Especially people who are single / living alone for sure. For people like us with infants I don’t think we have even sensed when time has flown as young kids keep you busy!

Exactly the same at my office. The company only set up managers for home working prior to the pandemic. I had to argue my need for a company laptop because I didn’t want to use my own but I got one at the end of feb just after a business trip. Although I’m keen to go back to the office I would welcome 1-2 days working at home a week, especially during quieter weeks.

[Deleted]

Dec 28, 2020 21:25:07 GMT greenboy said:

Dec 28, 2020 19:05:23 GMT @busenthusiast56 said:

I think it will come down to individual employers and how the government incentivises employers to bring them back, maybe some sort of tax relief. As long as staff are productive most companies are happy, mine certainly is. But in a way it could be a good way to revitalise town centres outside of central London, companies like Pret could be attracted to more towns in outer boroughs to better attract home office workers to spend money with them. Speaking personally in an ideal world my employer will allow us to do a mixture of home and office working. I haven’t used cash for years and I don’t intend to except for trips to Europe when working, it’s easier to track expenses through cash. 

Yes I've made that point before that people working from home are likely to be spending more money in their local community and a lot of pubs and coffee shops are offering deals to attract them.

I would much rather central London be saved instead of a few coffee shops opening in the suburbs! Don't think these deals would make up for the amount of jobs at risk in the centre of London.

[ronnie]

Dec 28, 2020 22:23:44 GMT @busenthusiast56 said:

Dec 28, 2020 22:03:40 GMT ronnie said:

I think what will end up happening is that there will be some level of home working now getting built in. My office was almost impossible to do any work from home previously (old school attitude) and now I havn’t been in office since March. Of course there is increasing pull to come back .... but realistically what will happen is that there will be a hybrid model of 3-4 days from office and 1-2 days from home

I increasingly sense a feeling of “tiredness” of working from home. It’s fine for a few days / weeks but having WFH for 10 months now a fair number of people are keen to see other people / colleagues in person - and once a vaccine is there I guess more people will come back. Especially people who are single / living alone for sure. For people like us with infants I don’t think we have even sensed when time has flown as young kids keep you busy!

Exactly the same at my office. The company only set up managers for home working prior to the pandemic. I had to argue my need for a company laptop because I didn’t want to use my own but I got one at the end of feb just after a business trip. Although I’m keen to go back to the office I would welcome 1-2 days working at home a week, especially during quieter weeks.

Agree, a few days at home especially when it’s quiet would be extremely welcome. There are some days when office is more productive and a few when home is so much better

[MKAY315]

Dec 28, 2020 18:39:08 GMT vjaska said:

Dec 28, 2020 16:05:15 GMT MKAY315 said:

I'm going to say from an economical point of view things will properly pick up in 2022.

2021 I feel will be focusing more on recovering from the pandemic more than anything. I don't think football stadiums will be filled as much as it was before, countries are going to impose a rule of 2 things. A negative test or proof of vaccine. I think Khan will get a clean swoop for a term 2 in office. GCSE results will probably be judged the same way it was this year in the summer.

Office levels won't go back to how it was before. Some people are going to try their hardest to avoid coming into the office for various reasons. Oh yeah I almost forgot. A whole heap of people having to change their cars in preparation for ULEZ.

They won’t go back to the levels they were occupied but I actually predict that offices will still be fairly populated enough to have them around still as many office workers during the pandemic have actually spoke about how working from home isn’t for them due to them missing the office atmosphere and banter whilst others said that working from home isn’t practical on a permanent basis.

The biggest change I think will see is more places refusing to take cash - Covid really has finished off cash payments as pre Covid, I rarely paid for offline things by card but since March, I now almost exclusively pay for everything by card

Oh yes. I forgot about the handling with cash. I just remembered back in 2014 where tfl was doing it's advertisement for months about no more cashes on buses. With working from home I think for a lot of people they probably feel as though there's no break of cycle as their employers feel as though they should be always available which really isn't the one at all. Hopefully next year will be a better one for all of us.

[twobellstogo]

Dec 28, 2020 10:43:20 GMT rugbyref said:

I predict a vastly improved turnout in the suburbs to try to eject Khan. He is widely detested, and when his proposals to charge an entry tax for friends and relatives driving from the counties into the suburbs are publicised, the turnout may be even greater.

Just seen this. I think this is your prejudice rather than a prediction.
Khan will probably get back in easily. The Conservative party haven’t helped themselves with a pretty poor candidate this time round.

[Deleted]

Dec 29, 2020 18:22:44 GMT twobellstogo said:

Dec 28, 2020 10:43:20 GMT rugbyref said:

I predict a vastly improved turnout in the suburbs to try to eject Khan. He is widely detested, and when his proposals to charge an entry tax for friends and relatives driving from the counties into the suburbs are publicised, the turnout may be even greater.

Just seen this. I think this is your prejudice rather than a prediction.
Khan will probably get back in easily. The Conservative party haven’t helped themselves with a pretty poor candidate this time round.

Of Rory Stewart hadn’t pulled out he might have given Kahn a run for his money. I won’t vote for Kahn, can’t stand him, but for many people it will be a case of better the devil you know.

[wirewiper]

Dec 29, 2020 18:29:21 GMT @busenthusiast56 said:

Dec 29, 2020 18:22:44 GMT twobellstogo said:

Just seen this. I think this is your prejudice rather than a prediction.
Khan will probably get back in easily. The Conservative party haven’t helped themselves with a pretty poor candidate this time round.

Of Rory Stewart hadn’t pulled out he might have given Kahn a run for his money. I won’t vote for Kahn, can’t stand him, but for many people it will be a case of better the devil you know.

I certainly think Rory Stewart would have been a more able candidate than Shaun Bailey, but I don't get the impression that Rory Stewart has any particular affinity with London and I don't think that London voters would warm to him. I perceive him as a Cumbria/Borders man, that's where his heart appears to be. 

[rugbyref]

The issue with Khan’s proposal to charge non-London borough residents for entering is the unintended consequences. Many of the Bromley ambulance crews commute in by car, and residents of Halstead have to enter to access their GP. My grandson, who is on little more than minimum wage has to drive in to his job. Anyone who knows or is related to cases such as these will vote against Khan.

[capitalomnibus]

Dec 27, 2020 18:13:21 GMT Green Kitten said:

2021 is the year we begin the rebound.

Buses

Forum in pure outrage as Tower Transit retain the 13! They also win/retain the 70, 308, 488, W15, W16 and W17.

Stagecoach regain the 5 group after the extension is declined. Stagecoach fanbois wet their pants in excitement.

RATP will start to lose a couple of routes to other operators.

More splitting of longer routes.

A handful or more hydrogen buses. The Van Hool hydrogen buses return.

Existing hybrids used for contracts more often. I expect some may be used for more than 15 years ultimately.

General reduction of frequency to most high frequency routes, but barely any withdrawn.

The tube will pick up, but Night Tube will not likely return until after 2021. Night buses as a result will be slightly increased until TfL finances recover enough to fund the tube services. Nightlife will return with a vengeance.


Tube/Rail

Peaks won’t be as crammed. Recreational travel will almost fully recover. I’m more worried about National Rail services into London than the tube itself - this will be the biggest hit. More working from home will mean less need for all services.

4LM only gets up to SMA4 😬😬

Many projects put on hold for the time being. I can’t see a Piccadilly signaling upgrade happening or the Bakerloo extension for a long time coming.

The central Crossrail section does finally open, but at a lower frequency! Crossrail 2 on the other hand, likely to be put back another decade...

Successful opening of Battersea branch, but again probably at a lower than planned frequency.


Covid-19

Spring - vaccine rates increase, due to more being approved. More of the vulnerable population vaccinated. Death rates drop right down, partly because of this, and partly because of warmer weather. I predict around May-time is when we return to near-ish normal. Still a few restrictions, like masks in shops and on transport, and some social distancing - but will be like it was in July last year, perhaps with restricted foreign travel.

Outdoor recreational sports will return, as they should do (keeping healthy helps the immune system). Fans at games will still need to be distanced, so limited tickets.

I don’t think all who wish to do so will be fully vaccinated by the end of next year; so I don’t see the celebratory mask-burning day until 2022.

A moment of healing. Lockdowns exposed as being ineffective and counter-productive - and used by panicked politicians to cover their asses until the vaccine arrived. Less trust in the media and governments, I should hope. (I may well explain my stance in more detail in you know where). A time to reflect on more sustainable solutions, as more viruses will certainly come and there will be future pandemics. But lockdowns will be thrown in the bin. Fingers crossed.

Hand sanitisers at stations to remain, I hope.


Society

More working from home.

There will be some damaging long term effects from what happened in 2020. Hate to be gloomy.

More monopolies. Fewer independent shops, more franchises. High street continues to lose its soul and life.

Teachers will need to work hard to make up for lost time - feel sorry for those still in school. May be a decline in exam results. Maybe a push for more people to go into trades instead of mindlessly going to uni.

Tax increase to pay for all of this.

Sadly, a lot of death due to delayed or cancelled treatments. mental health problems at a high, so hoping for a push for more positive stuff from the MSM, least they could do.

Don’t want to be depressing, but the roaring 20s mark II that so many want will take a little while to kick in, but we will come out ultimately stronger.

My Goals

Pass my driving test on the 6th attempt 😂 both hand-drawn and digital maps finished, best baseball and softball season ever. More parties to make up for 2020. My planned side-hustle begins.

pmsl at the 5. I really cannot see an extension refused on performance. The route seems to perform ok as it is well padded. It may be a passengers nightmare, but an operators dream as it means more £'s. 
As for the W15 its performance is a shambles, it went from bad to worse from the time First took over the route in 2012, I was shocked when they retained it a few years ago

[capitalomnibus]

Dec 27, 2020 19:25:21 GMT Eastlondoner62 said:

Dec 27, 2020 19:13:33 GMT TB123 said:

Right... My predictions for the London bus network in 2021

Major consultations for Harrow and Uxbridge to take place following recent publishing of network development papers. Some new links and economies alongside simplification planned.

Network development papers for Haringey, Old Oak Common and Enfield to be published outlining proposals to make bold changes, especially in the case of Haringey and Enfield

Loans take place between bus operators following delayed arrival of new electric bus orders

All new bus orders to be electric, but there to be less of these with more use of existing buses in tenders

More routes receive 2 year extensions reflecting positive performance trends in recent times

More "low-cost" bus priority measures implemented, eg 24/7 bus lanes, removal of some parking bays and perhaps some new traffic lights. Funding constraints see less 20 mph speed limits and new cycle lanes than recent times.

No changes to the operators on the TfL network. Consistent tendering performance for most operators. Uno to win a second daytime route (234?)

Croydon routes due for tender towards the end of the year recieve new electric buses (119, 198, 264, 433)

Metroline to regain the 13, the forum and Finchley Road corridor rejoices

More speculation on tenders, with more retentions confounding this hype

Sadiq Khan to be reelected with no change to transport strategy

Croydon and Sutton, South Newham and 414 changes to be implemented, perhaps with some minor tweaks.

The 413 Citaros depart off lease and the bus enthusiasts of London are devastated.

At least one operator stages a major strike. Probably Metroline, maybe RATP.

That's about it I think?

Completely forgot about the Mayoral election, do expect Khan to win a landslide though as every time Bailey opens his mouth he just digs a bigger hole for himself. 

With the 13, I actually see an Abellio win as opposed to a Metroline win. X have caused a big hole in QB and I'm sure Abellio will be interested in winning a big route to fill it up. 

Your point about Loans is really interesting, and key. Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Abellio and RATP all are due electric buses next Autumn and I am sure these won't all be fulfilled in time, even if operators source from a variety of manufacturers. Would certainly be interesting to see if Stagecoach loan WVLs for the 180 or if Abellio loan MHVs for the 63. 

Landslide? you having a laugh, it is more likely it would be a tight win, a lot of people who voted Khan initially would NOT vote for him again, myself included. I could see this mayoral elections with the lowest turn out of all mayoral elections. I do not think Sean Bailey would win, but would come closer than people are expecting.

It is the same way many were saying that Corbyn would have won or it would be close, I said NEVER and more likely he would lose badly; however I did not think he would lose as bad as he did. So much people are saying they would not vote for Khan, there is a lot of disappointment towards him than anything else.

[Eastlondoner62]

Jan 2, 2021 12:48:37 GMT capitalomnibus said:

Dec 27, 2020 19:25:21 GMT Eastlondoner62 said:

Completely forgot about the Mayoral election, do expect Khan to win a landslide though as every time Bailey opens his mouth he just digs a bigger hole for himself. 

With the 13, I actually see an Abellio win as opposed to a Metroline win. X have caused a big hole in QB and I'm sure Abellio will be interested in winning a big route to fill it up. 

Your point about Loans is really interesting, and key. Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Abellio and RATP all are due electric buses next Autumn and I am sure these won't all be fulfilled in time, even if operators source from a variety of manufacturers. Would certainly be interesting to see if Stagecoach loan WVLs for the 180 or if Abellio loan MHVs for the 63. 

Landslide? you having a laugh, it is more likely it would be a tight win, a lot of people who voted Khan initially would NOT vote for him again, myself included. I could see this mayoral elections with the lowest turn out of all mayoral elections. I do not think Sean Bailey would win, but would come closer than people are expecting.

It is the same way many were saying that Corbyn would have won or it would be close, I said NEVER and more likely he would lose badly; however I did not think he would lose as bad as he did. So much people are saying they would not vote for Khan, there is a lot of disappointment towards him than anything else.

I think the winning margin for Khan this year will be bigger than 2016, Bailey has totally scuppered his chances with his nonsensical comments in the past and he still does say some silly things, the other day he pointlessly just called Khan a crony.

Yesterday Khan was trending all evening on twitter due to support following the fireworks display, I've not seen a politician trending for nothing but a positive reason for a long time until yesterday.

[capitalomnibus]

Dec 28, 2020 10:43:20 GMT rugbyref said:

I predict a vastly improved turnout in the suburbs to try to eject Khan. He is widely detested, and when his proposals to charge an entry tax for friends and relatives driving from the counties into the suburbs are publicised, the turnout may be even greater.

Khan has played it smart by trying to do this charge on non London registered cars, so in effect you are punishing the people who would come into London but cannot vote for you. It is the kind of thing Livingstone would do but can backfire if it goes wrong. i didn't even think as you say many would have families living in London and convince them not to vote for Khan.
It would hit many businesses hard and hauliers that have vehicles not based in the GLA.
It would also hit garages such as [GY] which has ferry vehicles coming in to Romford for the 66/103. It could also potentially hit many fringe bus garages like [NS] [RR] [DX] that has a lot of staff from Essex County Council who flock to London due to the higher wages compared to working local in the bus industry.

[capitalomnibus]

Dec 28, 2020 10:53:03 GMT @rob said:

I was going to write something quite lengthy here, but decided against it. The only trend thus far is just when things seem to be better, they get worse. So I’m not tempting fate.

The only prediction I will make, is January 2021 will be one of the coldest on record with widespread snow across the UK. 

Well you got that wrong 2 days into January and it is not negative figures. I remember in 1996 when it was negative figures and some of it went to near -10 deg C.