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Post by vjaska on Jan 2, 2021 13:33:01 GMT
The issue with Khan’s proposal to charge non-London borough residents for entering is the unintended consequences. Many of the Bromley ambulance crews commute in by car, and residents of Halstead have to enter to access their GP. My grandson, who is on little more than minimum wage has to drive in to his job. Anyone who knows or is related to cases such as these will vote against Khan. Not a fan of Khan or Bailey but the problem people in the outer boroughs have is London is the only major Labour territory left and in general votes overwhelmingly for Labour and that’s despite the vast majority of the outer boroughs voting Tory so I don’t see that changing myself. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 13:34:49 GMT
I predict a vastly improved turnout in the suburbs to try to eject Khan. He is widely detested, and when his proposals to charge an entry tax for friends and relatives driving from the counties into the suburbs are publicised, the turnout may be even greater. He may be widely detested in your circle, but he is still clear favourite to win a second term in 2021 no matter how many Conservative bigwigs get parachuted in to prop up the hapless Shaun Bailey. And as for the charge for driving into London, I am quite happy for car owners to pay for the privilege of doing so. It isn't a matter of being in his circle. There are a lot of Labour people I know would NOT vote for him again and cannot stand him. He is VERY unpopular in the bus industry now compared to when he came in on the scene in 2016 and loved to use the phrase ' a bus drivers son '. That seems to have gone sour with many bus workers now and some things I have now heard said about him is shocking. I do not think Bailey has had any of the support from Conservative 'big wigs' as you mention, compared to what Goldsmith, Johnson or Steve Norris had got. To me it seems as though they underhandedly tried to unseat Bailey with Rory Stewart in the way how Livingstone blew Frank Dobson out the water. I am not surprise at your statement that you are "happy for car owners to pay the privilege of doing so". After all you do not drive, have no licence so a statement like that reflects people who do not drive as it does not affect you. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 13:39:52 GMT
I predict a vastly improved turnout in the suburbs to try to eject Khan. He is widely detested, and when his proposals to charge an entry tax for friends and relatives driving from the counties into the suburbs are publicised, the turnout may be even greater. I heavily doubt a lot of the suburbs will be against Khan, if anything I would say places like Barking are where he gets his strongest support. The only places that will probably vote for Bailey are the traditional Tory grounds like Romford, Ruislip and Bromley and this is not going to be enough to give Bailey a win, even if turnout is extremely high. I think its quite clear Khan is heading straight for a second term now. Bailey has blown the chances the Conservatives had to get back into office. Barking & Dagenham was very close in terms of elections recently for the general election. The general elections are not that similar to London elections and at times has seen very different variations. Bailey has not blown the chances as he never got the chances and to me is another rushed candidate and not the person they really wanted to pitch. I have heard some Labour voters say they would vote him out of protest at Khan, but I really do not think Khan nor Bailey is what London needs to be honest. There are far better people from both political parties than these two. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 13:58:18 GMT
Landslide? you having a laugh, it is more likely it would be a tight win, a lot of people who voted Khan initially would NOT vote for him again, myself included. I could see this mayoral elections with the lowest turn out of all mayoral elections. I do not think Sean Bailey would win, but would come closer than people are expecting. It is the same way many were saying that Corbyn would have won or it would be close, I said NEVER and more likely he would lose badly; however I did not think he would lose as bad as he did. So much people are saying they would not vote for Khan, there is a lot of disappointment towards him than anything else. I think the winning margin for Khan this year will be bigger than 2016, Bailey has totally scuppered his chances with his nonsensical comments in the past and he still does say some silly things, the other day he pointlessly just called Khan a crony. Yesterday Khan was trending all evening on twitter due to support following the fireworks display, I've not seen a politician trending for nothing but a positive reason for a long time until yesterday. You say that about nonsensical comments in the past. But look at where that got Boris and even Ken who did the same in the past and both of them still made it to office. I really cannot see how Khan would make a huge win when there is a lot of people would not vote for him or even vote at all. He calls Khan a crony, lol but he is not wrong and even still, pointless words like that which Khan also throws out himself doesn't stop people from voting for them. People were cussing Khan about the fireworks display, purely because they were saying why spend money on ti then tell people not to come into London, only fior them to spend £2 million on it. Twitter is for twits imo and doesn't ever show the true reflection of the electorate. If you went by Twtter, then Trump would have won the recent US election and Corbyn would have had a landslide win at the 2019 general election. We also would all be eating out of garbage bins after brexit was delivered. Twitter to me is to be take with a skip full of salt. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 14:05:28 GMT
For the buses in particular, TfL to continue to needlessly splice the network to smithereens rather than actually introduce pro bus policies! Especially following the Pandemic this is what I see too sadly, and I don't see any investment in bus priority apart from making more bus lanes 24 hours 7 days a week. But then there's also the argument TfL might not want to try getting people onto buses at the moment due to capacity restrictions. I wouldn't even say that 24 hour bus lanes is proper priority, it is not thought through and a gimmick. Many bus lanes should have had 6am till 9pm, but then they chose on red routes to do 24 hour and to be honest many of the roads it has been put on the hours after where it was still continuing live was dead and buses did not have a problem at these times. It is backward thinking and did nothing to solve the problems caused by closing side roads off that buses could not even gain access to the bus lanes due to the traffic. Or we have the ill thought through bus lanes which have dangerous pinch points to collide with cars or has no continuity and if the bus enters it, it would end up being behind the car that it left to enter the bus lane when it exits it. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2021 14:07:44 GMT
I think the winning margin for Khan this year will be bigger than 2016, Bailey has totally scuppered his chances with his nonsensical comments in the past and he still does say some silly things, the other day he pointlessly just called Khan a crony. Yesterday Khan was trending all evening on twitter due to support following the fireworks display, I've not seen a politician trending for nothing but a positive reason for a long time until yesterday. You say that about nonsensical comments in the past. But look at where that got Boris and even Ken who did the same in the past and both of them still made it to office. I really cannot see how Khan would make a huge win when there is a lot of people would not vote for him or even vote at all. He calls Khan a crony, lol but he is not wrong and even still, pointless words like that which Khan also throws out himself doesn't stop people from voting for them. People were cussing Khan about the fireworks display, purely because they were saying why spend money on ti then tell people not to come into London, only fior them to spend £2 million on it. Twitter is for twits imo and doesn't ever show the true reflection of the electorate. If you went by Twtter, then Trump would have won the recent US election and Corbyn would have had a landslide win at the 2019 general election. We also would all be eating out of garbage bins after brexit was delivered. Twitter to me is to be take with a skip full of salt. I’m really interested to hear at least 5 things anyone can name that Kahn has done to improve life in London because I’ve asked several friends and family who intend to vote for him and none of them can name anything, not a single thing. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 14:28:06 GMT
You say that about nonsensical comments in the past. But look at where that got Boris and even Ken who did the same in the past and both of them still made it to office. I really cannot see how Khan would make a huge win when there is a lot of people would not vote for him or even vote at all. He calls Khan a crony, lol but he is not wrong and even still, pointless words like that which Khan also throws out himself doesn't stop people from voting for them. People were cussing Khan about the fireworks display, purely because they were saying why spend money on ti then tell people not to come into London, only fior them to spend £2 million on it. Twitter is for twits imo and doesn't ever show the true reflection of the electorate. If you went by Twtter, then Trump would have won the recent US election and Corbyn would have had a landslide win at the 2019 general election. We also would all be eating out of garbage bins after brexit was delivered. Twitter to me is to be take with a skip full of salt. I’m really interested to hear at least 5 things anyone can name that Kahn has done to improve life in London because I’ve asked several friends and family who intend to vote for him and none of them can name anything, not a single thing. There must be a few things, but I cannot think of anything he has done to improve my own life personally. One thing he did was stole the lib dems policy of hopper fare which has been good for Londoners. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2021 14:44:01 GMT
I’m really interested to hear at least 5 things anyone can name that Kahn has done to improve life in London because I’ve asked several friends and family who intend to vote for him and none of them can name anything, not a single thing. There must be a few things, but I cannot think of anything he has done to improve my own life personally. One thing he did was stole the lib dems policy of hopper fare which has been good for Londoners. It’ll be hard to find them, the hopper fare looks good on paper but it would be interesting to see how much it benefit, if any, it has had to TfL in real term passenger revenues and usage. |
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Post by vjaska on Jan 2, 2021 14:58:42 GMT
You say that about nonsensical comments in the past. But look at where that got Boris and even Ken who did the same in the past and both of them still made it to office. I really cannot see how Khan would make a huge win when there is a lot of people would not vote for him or even vote at all. He calls Khan a crony, lol but he is not wrong and even still, pointless words like that which Khan also throws out himself doesn't stop people from voting for them. People were cussing Khan about the fireworks display, purely because they were saying why spend money on ti then tell people not to come into London, only fior them to spend £2 million on it. Twitter is for twits imo and doesn't ever show the true reflection of the electorate. If you went by Twtter, then Trump would have won the recent US election and Corbyn would have had a landslide win at the 2019 general election. We also would all be eating out of garbage bins after brexit was delivered. Twitter to me is to be take with a skip full of salt. I’m really interested to hear at least 5 things anyone can name that Kahn has done to improve life in London because I’ve asked several friends and family who intend to vote for him and none of them can name anything, not a single thing. Likely none but equally, I don’t see Bailey being any better so we are effectively left with two very poor candidates to choose from and going off the two most important issues for me personally (transport investment & fighting crime), neither candidate appeals to me. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 15:02:03 GMT
My predictions for 2021
A lot of consultations for bus service changes
More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes
A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts
London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere
More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage
An extremely hot summer
More big name casualties on the High St
Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them
A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020
Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market
Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement
More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs
Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card
Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders
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Post by wirewiper on Jan 2, 2021 15:44:38 GMT
OK here's one:
TfL will decide officially that the LTs will not be refurbished, but will be repaired as necessary to keep them going and each one will be withdrawn as it becomes uneconomic to repair. Expect an announcement towards the end of the year for the first LT-operated route to be awarded a new contract with electrics (but it won't be the 148).
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Post by snowman on Jan 2, 2021 16:43:07 GMT
OK here's one: TfL will decide officially that the LTs will not be refurbished, but will be repaired as necessary to keep them going and each one will be withdrawn as it becomes uneconomic to repair. Expect an announcement towards the end of the year for the first LT-operated route to be awarded a new contract with electrics (but it won't be the 148). And as the tender results of multiple school routes and 148 didn’t actually get announced in 2020, there could be fun announcement of the 148s LTs being distributed to loads of school routes (the 148s LTs were built early 2014) so marginally too old for another 7 year contract starting October 2021) |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2021 16:55:07 GMT
My predictions for 2021 A lot of consultations for bus service changes More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage An extremely hot summer More big name casualties on the High St Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020 Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 2, 2021 16:55:57 GMT
I heavily doubt a lot of the suburbs will be against Khan, if anything I would say places like Barking are where he gets his strongest support. The only places that will probably vote for Bailey are the traditional Tory grounds like Romford, Ruislip and Bromley and this is not going to be enough to give Bailey a win, even if turnout is extremely high. I think its quite clear Khan is heading straight for a second term now. Bailey has blown the chances the Conservatives had to get back into office. Barking & Dagenham was very close in terms of elections recently for the general election. The general elections are not that similar to London elections and at times has seen very different variations. Bailey has not blown the chances as he never got the chances and to me is another rushed candidate and not the person they really wanted to pitch. I have heard some Labour voters say they would vote him out of protest at Khan, but I really do not think Khan nor Bailey is what London needs to be honest. There are far better people from both political parties than these two. Barking and Dagenham was not close at all, Barking and Dagenham is predominantly catered for by the Barking constituency which covers all of Barking, Becontree and half of Dagenham where Labour won by a majority of 15,427. Dagenham & Rainham was more close. If you add the pair together Labour still won by over 15,000 votes, not to mention the Dagenham and Rainham constituency covers more of Havering which is traditionally Tory voting. |
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Post by SILENCED on Jan 2, 2021 17:10:55 GMT
My predictions for 2021 A lot of consultations for bus service changes More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage An extremely hot summer More big name casualties on the High St Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020 Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. DB is extremely unlikely to collapse as it is a nationalised company. Although there were interested parties, none were willing to pay the price DB was seeking for Arriva. So unless they have lowered their demands, market has picked up, or they get a market placement underwritten, then I can't see any progress being made there. Now is not a good time to be trying to dispose of the vast majority of companies. Thought pre-covid, the plan was to list it on the Amsterdam stock exchange ... |
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