|
|
Post by TB123 on Dec 27, 2020 14:55:23 GMT
Thought this would be an interesting thread to post, your predictions for the year ahead (2021), be that for the London bus network or society more generally!
I'll post mine a bit later on but would be very interested to hear those of others.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2020 15:32:30 GMT
A return to near normal by autumn 2021. This can be achieved if people start being sensible and perhaps one more hard proper lockdown especially in London whilst they ramp up the vaccine.
For buses:
15H withdrawn
No major changes to central London buses apart from PVR reductions as needed.
Tower Transit bounce back especially in east London.
|
|
|
|
Post by wirewiper on Dec 27, 2020 16:57:44 GMT
For rail, there will be a shift in emphasis. Peak commuting will not recover to anything like its pre-pandemic levels, although leisure travel will recover more strongly. There will be more emphasis on longer-distance services and a certain amount of modal shift from air to rail for domestic and near-European routes.
There will be more orders for bi-modal trains, enabling more operation in electric mode where lines are wired. A possible order of new trains to replace the entire existing Cross-Country Trains fleet may be announced, some would be tri-modal to allow operation over the third-rail electric lines between Basingstoke and Bournemouth.
Hydrogen trains will continue to be developed. There may be a fleet order by the end of the year.
Fares and ticketing will be reviewed, with the aim of introducing radical changes in 2022.
|
|
|
|
Post by Green Kitten on Dec 27, 2020 18:13:21 GMT
2021 is the year we begin the rebound. Buses Forum in pure outrage as Tower Transit retain the 13! They also win/retain the 70, 308, 488, W15, W16 and W17. Stagecoach regain the 5 group after the extension is declined. Stagecoach fanbois wet their pants in excitement. RATP will start to lose a couple of routes to other operators. More splitting of longer routes. A handful or more hydrogen buses. The Van Hool hydrogen buses return. Existing hybrids used for contracts more often. I expect some may be used for more than 15 years ultimately. General reduction of frequency to most high frequency routes, but barely any withdrawn. The tube will pick up, but Night Tube will not likely return until after 2021. Night buses as a result will be slightly increased until TfL finances recover enough to fund the tube services. Nightlife will return with a vengeance. Tube/Rail Peaks won’t be as crammed. Recreational travel will almost fully recover. I’m more worried about National Rail services into London than the tube itself - this will be the biggest hit. More working from home will mean less need for all services. 4LM only gets up to SMA4 😬😬 Many projects put on hold for the time being. I can’t see a Piccadilly signaling upgrade happening or the Bakerloo extension for a long time coming. The central Crossrail section does finally open, but at a lower frequency! Crossrail 2 on the other hand, likely to be put back another decade... Successful opening of Battersea branch, but again probably at a lower than planned frequency. Covid-19 Spring - vaccine rates increase, due to more being approved. More of the vulnerable population vaccinated. Death rates drop right down, partly because of this, and partly because of warmer weather. I predict around May-time is when we return to near-ish normal. Still a few restrictions, like masks in shops and on transport, and some social distancing - but will be like it was in July last year, perhaps with restricted foreign travel. Outdoor recreational sports will return, as they should do (keeping healthy helps the immune system). Fans at games will still need to be distanced, so limited tickets. I don’t think all who wish to do so will be fully vaccinated by the end of next year; so I don’t see the celebratory mask-burning day until 2022. A moment of healing. Lockdowns exposed as being ineffective and counter-productive - and used by panicked politicians to cover their asses until the vaccine arrived. Less trust in the media and governments, I should hope. (I may well explain my stance in more detail in you know where). A time to reflect on more sustainable solutions, as more viruses will certainly come and there will be future pandemics. But lockdowns will be thrown in the bin. Fingers crossed. Hand sanitisers at stations to remain, I hope. Society More working from home. There will be some damaging long term effects from what happened in 2020. Hate to be gloomy. More monopolies. Fewer independent shops, more franchises. High street continues to lose its soul and life. Teachers will need to work hard to make up for lost time - feel sorry for those still in school. May be a decline in exam results. Maybe a push for more people to go into trades instead of mindlessly going to uni. Tax increase to pay for all of this. Sadly, a lot of death due to delayed or cancelled treatments.  mental health problems at a high, so hoping for a push for more positive stuff from the MSM, least they could do. Don’t want to be depressing, but the roaring 20s mark II that so many want will take a little while to kick in, but we will come out ultimately stronger. My Goals Pass my driving test on the 6th attempt 😂 both hand-drawn and digital maps finished, best baseball and softball season ever. More parties to make up for 2020. My planned side-hustle begins. |
|
|
|
Post by vjaska on Dec 27, 2020 18:33:53 GMT
For the buses in particular, TfL to continue to needlessly splice the network to smithereens rather than actually introduce pro bus policies!
|
|
|
|
Post by enviroPB on Dec 27, 2020 18:40:02 GMT
2021 is the year we begin the rebound. Buses Forum in pure outrage as Tower Transit retain the 13! They also win/retain the 70, 308, 488, W15, W16 and W17. Stagecoach regain the 5 group after the extension is declined. Stagecoach fanbois wet their pants in excitement. RATP will start to lose a couple of routes to other operators. More splitting of longer routes. A handful or more hydrogen buses. The Van Hool hydrogen buses return. Existing hybrids used for contracts more often. I expect some may be used for more than 15 years ultimately. General reduction of frequency to most high frequency routes, but barely any withdrawn. The tube will pick up, but Night Tube will not likely return until after 2021. Night buses as a result will be slightly increased until TfL finances recover enough to fund the tube services. Nightlife will return with a vengeance. Tube/Rail Peaks won’t be as crammed. Recreational travel will almost fully recover. I’m more worried about National Rail services into London than the tube itself - this will be the biggest hit. More working from home will mean less need for all services. 4LM only gets up to SMA4 😬😬 Many projects put on hold for the time being. I can’t see a Piccadilly signaling upgrade happening or the Bakerloo extension for a long time coming. The central Crossrail section does finally open, but at a lower frequency! Crossrail 2 on the other hand, likely to be put back another decade... Successful opening of Battersea branch, but again probably at a lower than planned frequency. Covid-19 Spring - vaccine rates increase, due to more being approved. More of the vulnerable population vaccinated. Death rates drop right down, partly because of this, and partly because of warmer weather. I predict around May-time is when we return to near-ish normal. Still a few restrictions, like masks in shops and on transport, and some social distancing - but will be like it was in July last year, perhaps with restricted foreign travel. Outdoor recreational sports will return, as they should do (keeping healthy helps the immune system). Fans at games will still need to be distanced, so limited tickets. I don’t think all who wish to do so will be fully vaccinated by the end of next year; so I don’t see the celebratory mask-burning day until 2022. A moment of healing. Lockdowns exposed as being ineffective and counter-productive - and used by panicked politicians to cover their asses until the vaccine arrived. Less trust in the media and governments, I should hope. (I may well explain my stance in more detail in you know where). A time to reflect on more sustainable solutions, as more viruses will certainly come and there will be future pandemics. But lockdowns will be thrown in the bin. Fingers crossed. Hand sanitisers at stations to remain, I hope. Society More working from home. There will be some damaging long term effects from what happened in 2020. Hate to be gloomy. More monopolies. Fewer independent shops, more franchises. High street continues to lose its soul and life. Teachers will need to work hard to make up for lost time - feel sorry for those still in school. May be a decline in exam results. Maybe a push for more people to go into trades instead of mindlessly going to uni. Tax increase to pay for all of this. Sadly, a lot of death due to delayed or cancelled treatments. mental health problems at a high, so hoping for a push for more positive stuff from the MSM, least they could do. Don’t want to be depressing, but the roaring 20s mark II that so many want will take a little while to kick in, but we will come out ultimately stronger. My Goals Couple of tube WTTs out, pass my driving test on the 6th attempt 😂 both hand-drawn and digital maps finished, best baseball and softball season ever. More parties to make up for 2020. More night buses as a result of the Night Tube being closed?! TfL were saying it as a badge of pride in one of their documentaries that the night bus patronage swole over 170% in the first ten years of this millennium... and did nothing. The only reason night buses were properly funded was due to the Olympics in 2012, and that wasn't lost on me. Routes like the N35 and N15 got their badly needed frequency increases because of that and those resources which were set to disappear after the Paralympics stayed; the aforementioned routes were the major beneficiaries. It fills me with no joy of the weekend night route tiles being replaced for normal ones; and despite having a gripe about it initially, the Night Tube not returning in the immediate future also fills me with despair. Vulnerable groups traveling at night did hail it as a safer mode to travel during weekends. It does help the night bus network out and helps stabalise & distribute passengers in a more cost effective way. However learning from the past, TfL will once again turn its back on the night bus network unless a night route is struggling, and is coincidentally up for tender.  |
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Dec 27, 2020 18:57:36 GMT
For the buses in particular, TfL to continue to needlessly splice the network to smithereens rather than actually introduce pro bus policies! Especially following the Pandemic this is what I see too sadly, and I don't see any investment in bus priority apart from making more bus lanes 24 hours 7 days a week. But then there's also the argument TfL might not want to try getting people onto buses at the moment due to capacity restrictions. |
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Dec 27, 2020 19:13:33 GMT
Right... My predictions for the London bus network in 2021
Major consultations for Harrow and Uxbridge to take place following recent publishing of network development papers. Some new links and economies alongside simplification planned.
Network development papers for Haringey, Old Oak Common and Enfield to be published outlining proposals to make bold changes, especially in the case of Haringey and Enfield
Loans take place between bus operators following delayed arrival of new electric bus orders
All new bus orders to be electric, but there to be less of these with more use of existing buses in tenders
More routes receive 2 year extensions reflecting positive performance trends in recent times
More "low-cost" bus priority measures implemented, eg 24/7 bus lanes, removal of some parking bays and perhaps some new traffic lights. Funding constraints see less 20 mph speed limits and new cycle lanes than recent times.
No changes to the operators on the TfL network. Consistent tendering performance for most operators. Uno to win a second daytime route (234?)
Croydon routes due for tender towards the end of the year recieve new electric buses (119, 198, 264, 433)
Metroline to regain the 13, the forum and Finchley Road corridor rejoices
More speculation on tenders, with more retentions confounding this hype
Sadiq Khan to be reelected with no change to transport strategy
Croydon and Sutton, South Newham and 414 changes to be implemented, perhaps with some minor tweaks.
The 413 Citaros depart off lease and the bus enthusiasts of London are devastated.
At least one operator stages a major strike. Probably Metroline, maybe RATP.
That's about it I think?
|
|
|
|
Post by Eastlondoner62 on Dec 27, 2020 19:25:21 GMT
Right... My predictions for the London bus network in 2021 Major consultations for Harrow and Uxbridge to take place following recent publishing of network development papers. Some new links and economies alongside simplification planned. Network development papers for Haringey, Old Oak Common and Enfield to be published outlining proposals to make bold changes, especially in the case of Haringey and Enfield Loans take place between bus operators following delayed arrival of new electric bus orders All new bus orders to be electric, but there to be less of these with more use of existing buses in tenders More routes receive 2 year extensions reflecting positive performance trends in recent times More "low-cost" bus priority measures implemented, eg 24/7 bus lanes, removal of some parking bays and perhaps some new traffic lights. Funding constraints see less 20 mph speed limits and new cycle lanes than recent times. No changes to the operators on the TfL network. Consistent tendering performance for most operators. Uno to win a second daytime route (234?) Croydon routes due for tender towards the end of the year recieve new electric buses (119, 198, 264, 433) Metroline to regain the 13, the forum and Finchley Road corridor rejoices More speculation on tenders, with more retentions confounding this hype Sadiq Khan to be reelected with no change to transport strategy Croydon and Sutton, South Newham and 414 changes to be implemented, perhaps with some minor tweaks. The 413 Citaros depart off lease and the bus enthusiasts of London are devastated. At least one operator stages a major strike. Probably Metroline, maybe RATP. That's about it I think? Completely forgot about the Mayoral election, do expect Khan to win a landslide though as every time Bailey opens his mouth he just digs a bigger hole for himself. With the 13, I actually see an Abellio win as opposed to a Metroline win. X have caused a big hole in QB and I'm sure Abellio will be interested in winning a big route to fill it up. Your point about Loans is really interesting, and key. Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Abellio and RATP all are due electric buses next Autumn and I am sure these won't all be fulfilled in time, even if operators source from a variety of manufacturers. Would certainly be interesting to see if Stagecoach loan WVLs for the 180 or if Abellio loan MHVs for the 63. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2020 20:39:55 GMT
Very interesting thread created by TB123. My predictions are:
Night tube continues to be suspended
More Zero Emission Electric buses on order
Routes shifting between operators (most certainly)
More routes awarded 2 year extensions
Very exciting tender results to be announced, with shockers!
Not sure if they'll be any bus route withdrawals in 2021?
|
|
|
|
Post by twobellstogo on Dec 27, 2020 20:49:36 GMT
Generally speaking, I can’t see 2021 being overall a great year, particularly the first half. Much of the first six months or so will I think be covid dominated - and I fully expect another long and harsh UK wide lockdown at the start of the year, possibly until well into March. After that, a very slow improvement in the situation. Possibly a significant positive turnaround in the covid situation by August or September.
TfL buses : I expect another desperate year for TfL. They I think will have to be bailed out again - and more strings will be attached to any bailout, the results of which may result in industrial action on both underground and buses.
|
|
|
|
Post by snowman on Dec 27, 2020 21:42:08 GMT
TfL will suffer same as rail Operators who discovered today that Treasury wants a 20% cut in subsidy from April.
So expect evening, Sunday and some between peak frequencies to be cut by third or half
And TfL will finally realise that 87 is a stupid capacity that was based on some long obsolete bus design, so will revise the bus capacities for the electric bus era, and introduce 75 capacity single decks and 99 capacity double decks
|
|
|
|
Post by TB123 on Dec 27, 2020 21:46:12 GMT
Right... My predictions for the London bus network in 2021 Major consultations for Harrow and Uxbridge to take place following recent publishing of network development papers. Some new links and economies alongside simplification planned. Network development papers for Haringey, Old Oak Common and Enfield to be published outlining proposals to make bold changes, especially in the case of Haringey and Enfield Loans take place between bus operators following delayed arrival of new electric bus orders All new bus orders to be electric, but there to be less of these with more use of existing buses in tenders More routes receive 2 year extensions reflecting positive performance trends in recent times More "low-cost" bus priority measures implemented, eg 24/7 bus lanes, removal of some parking bays and perhaps some new traffic lights. Funding constraints see less 20 mph speed limits and new cycle lanes than recent times. No changes to the operators on the TfL network. Consistent tendering performance for most operators. Uno to win a second daytime route (234?) Croydon routes due for tender towards the end of the year recieve new electric buses (119, 198, 264, 433) Metroline to regain the 13, the forum and Finchley Road corridor rejoices More speculation on tenders, with more retentions confounding this hype Sadiq Khan to be reelected with no change to transport strategy Croydon and Sutton, South Newham and 414 changes to be implemented, perhaps with some minor tweaks. The 413 Citaros depart off lease and the bus enthusiasts of London are devastated. At least one operator stages a major strike. Probably Metroline, maybe RATP. That's about it I think? Completely forgot about the Mayoral election, do expect Khan to win a landslide though as every time Bailey opens his mouth he just digs a bigger hole for himself. With the 13, I actually see an Abellio win as opposed to a Metroline win. X have caused a big hole in QB and I'm sure Abellio will be interested in winning a big route to fill it up. Your point about Loans is really interesting, and key. Stagecoach, Go Ahead, Abellio and RATP all are due electric buses next Autumn and I am sure these won't all be fulfilled in time, even if operators source from a variety of manufacturers. Would certainly be interesting to see if Stagecoach loan WVLs for the 180 or if Abellio loan MHVs for the 63. I personally don't see the 13 going to Abellio, I'm not sure how effectively they could reduce the amount of light running, though that said they could well schedule meal reliefs/remote sign on/off at somewhere along the route like Golders Green where there are suitable facilities so I suppose it's not out of the question. I'm expecting the 184 to start off using ENLs at Go-Ahead in about 6 weeks time, given there is no sign of the SEes. |
|
|
|
Post by joefrombow on Dec 27, 2020 22:35:53 GMT
I see on the buses in London anyway Cuts, Cuts and more cuts like we have never seen before and higher fares (Talking of which how come none have been published yet ?) Patronage was down pre-pandemic and I don't think we are anywhere near out of this yet unfortunately I also see the Gov playing games around about the time the bail out runs out to make it look like it's all Sadiq's fault .
Buses outside London big big cuts and more Dial a ride/App based services starting to take over ,
Big reductions in peak frequencies on Tubes/DLR and National Rail as more people work from home and more shops disappear from the high street .
A Vaccine Pass or Card and some countries not allowing people in without it unless they have health reasons that they cannot take it .
Also see more roads being closed off and LTN's and cycle lanes being put in place encouraging less car use but making more traffic in places that are already heaving
Basically alot of stuff that would of happened 10/12 years down the line being fast forwarded and starting from now death of the high street and lots of job losses but companies like Amazon etc growing more taking over companies and more more warehouses being built etc
|
|
|
|
Post by greenboy on Dec 28, 2020 0:14:44 GMT
More of the same I guess, nothing actually changes on NYE. Covid will still be dominating things and hopefully some sort of normality can be restored by the spring as more people are vaccinated and those refusing it can have no complaints if they are excluded from various places but I think social distancing and face covering requirements are likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future. I don't think there will be any return to crowded trains pubs and nightclubs either and commuting levels will remain well below pre covid levels with the traditional season ticket being replaced by prepaid tickets, pay for 9 journeys and get one free etc, with tickets being validated at the time of travel. I guess TfL are going to require further bailouts and the level of what is forthcoming will dictate the level of cuts and fare increases. I can't see the night tube returning anytime soon or the Waterloo & City Line reopening and some considerable reductions in bus services seems inevitable. Oh and I think the 13 will return to Metroline at PB with the 134 possibly moving to HT?
|
|
mental health problems at a high, so hoping for a push for more positive stuff from the MSM, least they could do.
