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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2021 17:27:28 GMT
I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. DB is extremely unlikely to collapse as it is a nationalised company. Although there were interested parties, none were willing to pay the price DB was seeking for Arriva. So unless they have lowered their demands, market has picked up, or they get a market placement underwritten, then I can't see any progress being made there. Now is not a good time to be trying to dispose of the vast majority of companies. Thought pre-covid, the plan was to list it on the Amsterdam stock exchange ... Possibly but according to the Financial Times, pinch of salt required 😂, DB is approaching its debt ceiling and at least one other transport company has filed a complaint with the European Commission accusing the German government of unauthorised state aid so it may struggle to get an increase in this to the €35 billion requested. It probably won’t collapse but better to sell before they are forced too. |
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Post by vjaska on Jan 2, 2021 17:52:40 GMT
My predictions for 2021 A lot of consultations for bus service changes More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage An extremely hot summer More big name casualties on the High St Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020 Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. Last time, they were only interested in selling it as a whole as I believe many of the interested parties were only interested in taking bits so if they change their mind, then who knows. I do think there is potential for whoever takes the UK bus ops but it needs the right company behind it. |
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Post by SILENCED on Jan 2, 2021 18:39:27 GMT
DB is extremely unlikely to collapse as it is a nationalised company. Although there were interested parties, none were willing to pay the price DB was seeking for Arriva. So unless they have lowered their demands, market has picked up, or they get a market placement underwritten, then I can't see any progress being made there. Now is not a good time to be trying to dispose of the vast majority of companies. Thought pre-covid, the plan was to list it on the Amsterdam stock exchange ... Possibly but according to the Financial Times, pinch of salt required 😂, DB is approaching its debt ceiling and at least one other transport company has filed a complaint with the European Commission accusing the German government of unauthorised state aid so it may struggle to get an increase in this to the €35 billion requested. It probably won’t collapse but better to sell before they are forced too. Other option is to split the company into an operating company and a infrastructure company (like NR) but again, not a thing they want to do either. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Jan 2, 2021 19:30:08 GMT
My predictions for 2021 A lot of consultations for bus service changes More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage An extremely hot summer More big name casualties on the High St Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020 Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. This could happen now that sales are gradually resuming. We have Arriva themselves divesting Cannock operations to CentreBus owned D&G, National Express selling Dundee to McGills and First offloading 3 American operations. I predict several similar divestments by the big boys. Examples could be First divesting Oldham to Go-Ahead, Arriva divesting Derby to CentreBus and Stagecoach divesting Nuneaton to Rotala. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 2, 2021 19:44:34 GMT
I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. Last time, they were only interested in selling it as a whole as I believe many of the interested parties were only interested in taking bits so if they change their mind, then who knows. I do think there is potential for whoever takes the UK bus ops but it needs the right company behind it. I'm not too surprised about buyers not wanting the whole thing, Arriva cover a huge range of markets such as the train market, the provincial de-regulated bus market and tendered bus market, all of which have different risks and benefits. I can imagine that whoever would like the train business might not be interested in taking the bus business, or whoever wants the bus business might not be interested in operating in areas where they have to bid for routes and would rather do their own thing. I wonder if DB will take a look at what they what they are offering and make a decision on whether they want to sell the whole thing again or divide it up. The obvious benefit they probably have selling the whole thing is that they get a guaranteed sum and the whole lot is piled off to someone else, splitting it up risks different divisions making different amounts and also risks certain parts of the business having no buyer at all and that will no doubt leave them in a sticky situation. |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Jan 2, 2021 22:18:22 GMT
My predictions for 2021 A lot of consultations for bus service changes More over-exaggerated garbage over global warming as excuses to raise backdoor stealth taxes A lot of wage freezes and pay cuts London overwhelmed with people wanting to drive a bus as they lose jobs elsewhere More empty houses as people struggle to keep up with rent/mortgage An extremely hot summer More big name casualties on the High St Some coach companies cease trading as social distancing and lack of travel hits them A baby boom due to people spending more time indoors during 2020 Long overdue major restructuring within Arriva, with many posts gone, resignations and a turn around of the company to get back being competitive in the tender market Another disappointing Crossrail/Elizabeth line announcement More unmanned LUL stations at certain hours to cut costs Introduction of a child rate fare Oyster card Go-Ahead London gets bigger wining more tenders I have a feeling DB will reignite their ambition to sell Arriva. They need cash as their debt ceiling has just increased to €35 billion and they are facing the largest losses in their history. The question is whether they would sell it in chunks or as a whole. Either way I think DB will look to sell Arriva again, there were plenty of interested parties when they sought a sale previously so I don’t think they would struggle to find a buyer. At the very least I think DB will spin Arriva off to a separate business to avoid having to fire sale if it collapsed due to high debt levels. It has not been taken off the table but was to be more streamlined for sale, until covid put a foot into this. So post covid it would be a matter of it being up for sale again |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 2, 2021 23:56:39 GMT
Just seen this. I think this is your prejudice rather than a prediction. Khan will probably get back in easily. The Conservative party haven’t helped themselves with a pretty poor candidate this time round. Of Rory Stewart hadn’t pulled out he might have given Kahn a run for his money. I won’t vote for Kahn, can’t stand him, but for many people it will be a case of better the devil you know. It's another case of where some people vote Khan in blindly. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 3, 2021 0:01:51 GMT
Of Rory Stewart hadn’t pulled out he might have given Kahn a run for his money. I won’t vote for Kahn, can’t stand him, but for many people it will be a case of better the devil you know. It's another case of where some people vote Khan in blindly. Well this election the other options are far worse, as mentioned he's the better of the devil. Bailey is a total mess and will probably end up doing worse than Goldsmith did, The LibDem candidate completely resigned from the party before they had to select a new one due to internal issues and the Green Party would be a total disaster for London. I agree Rory Stewart while not off to a strong start initially could have probably drummed up enough support in London if he really tried hard to win. |
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Post by george on Jan 3, 2021 1:39:38 GMT
Tower transit become the latest operator to gain LTs after a very surprising result with them winning the 148 off RATP.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2021 2:52:02 GMT
OK here's one: TfL will decide officially that the LTs will not be refurbished, but will be repaired as necessary to keep them going and each one will be withdrawn as it becomes uneconomic to repair. Expect an announcement towards the end of the year for the first LT-operated route to be awarded a new contract with electrics (but it won't be the 148). The 253 or 55 could well convert to Electrics. |
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Post by COBO on Jan 3, 2021 3:08:44 GMT
U3 and U7 are permanently converted to double deck and the 487 fingers cross gets converted to DD. (Or am I dreaming). I think that several single deck routes will get converted to DD.
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Post by george on Jan 3, 2021 12:14:46 GMT
Easyjet change A321Neo orders to A321XLR and announce plans for their first long haul flights.
Etihad becames the second of the ME3 to announce plans for a premium economy product but on the 787 instead of A380. Qatar will not have a premium economy product.
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 6, 2021 23:33:45 GMT
He may be widely detested in your circle, but he is still clear favourite to win a second term in 2021 no matter how many Conservative bigwigs get parachuted in to prop up the hapless Shaun Bailey. And as for the charge for driving into London, I am quite happy for car owners to pay for the privilege of doing so. It isn't a matter of being in his circle. There are a lot of Labour people I know would NOT vote for him again and cannot stand him. He is VERY unpopular in the bus industry now compared to when he came in on the scene in 2016 and loved to use the phrase ' a bus drivers son '. That seems to have gone sour with many bus workers now and some things I have now heard said about him is shocking. I do not think Bailey has had any of the support from Conservative 'big wigs' as you mention, compared to what Goldsmith, Johnson or Steve Norris had got. To me it seems as though they underhandedly tried to unseat Bailey with Rory Stewart in the way how Livingstone blew Frank Dobson out the water. I am not surprise at your statement that you are "happy for car owners to pay the privilege of doing so". After all you do not drive, have no licence so a statement like that reflects people who do not drive as it does not affect you. He's letting London be run by cyclists. |
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Post by bustavane on Jan 6, 2021 23:40:32 GMT
I am not surprise at your statement that you are "happy for car owners to pay the privilege of doing so". After all you do not drive, have no licence so a statement like that reflects people who do not drive as it does not affect you. As a driver and the (joint) owner of 2 cars, I too am more than happy at drivers paying for this privilege. Bus travel (electric, of còurse) is what we all need. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 6, 2021 23:55:43 GMT
As a driver and the (joint) owner of 2 cars, I too am more than happy at drivers paying for this privilege. Bus travel (electric, of còurse) is what we all need. Now while you may be happy to do so, people outside London might not be interested in doing so. Could very well cause damage to the London economy. While I understand cars might not be the way forward, they are vital for the running of this city and just turning your back on them will result in damage to the economy. It's clear everyone knows this as this is why Khan was so against the Congestion Charge being extended to the Circulars and why the Tories even tried to pin it on Khan in the first place so that they could accuse him of damaging the economy. |
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