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Post by ronnie on Jan 15, 2021 21:58:40 GMT
I wonder what new terminus the 388 will have in these next range of central London changes 
Joking aside I do wonder if the latest cuts could well see this route withdrawn?
388 to shoreditch? |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 15, 2021 22:09:59 GMT
I expect the Central London bus cuts to involve at least one of the following routes: 68, 168 and 188. These three routes duplicate each other between Elephant & Castle and Russell Square, each running at an avg frequency of every 8 minutes (roughly 8bph for each route). I think there is scope for a reduction in the frequency of one or two of these bus routes. In the 188's case, it is probably acceptable to cut it back to Aldwych or Waterloo. Additionally, I feel as though a large portion of those 25 routes will involve LT routes, subsequently more LTs moving to the outer suburbs. The Elizabeth Line core section opening may also play as a factor of which routes are affected, 390 comes to mind. Since the 23 has survived (for now) to Marble Arch as opposed to be withdrawn to Paddington and extended to Wembley, tfl may decide to pull the 7 out of the west end which was rumoured a few years ago to be cut once Crossrail opens. 23 diverted at Ladbroke Grove to East Acton and the 452 remaining/diverting to Westbourne Park and an increased 70 along Westbourne Park Road. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Jan 15, 2021 22:24:31 GMT
I'll give my very sad 3 most likely routes I could see affected by this:
- 414
- 396
- 68/168 possibly
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Post by vjaska on Jan 15, 2021 22:41:04 GMT
I'll give my very sad 3 most likely routes I could see affected by this: - 414 - 396 - 68/168 possibly I don't follow regarding the 396 - the changes are focused on Central London routes unless I'm missing something? |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 15, 2021 22:44:15 GMT
Perhaps he meant 390. Perhaps a swap with the 73 back to Victoria and the 390 becoming a less frequent Archway to Oxo route as the section north of King's X is not massively used for the 6 mins freq.
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Post by bus12451 on Jan 15, 2021 22:48:39 GMT
I expect the Central London bus cuts to involve at least one of the following routes: 68, 168 and 188. These three routes duplicate each other between Elephant & Castle and Russell Square, each running at an avg frequency of every 8 minutes (roughly 8bph for each route). I think there is scope for a reduction in the frequency of one or two of these bus routes. In the 188's case, it is probably acceptable to cut it back to Aldwych or Waterloo. Additionally, I feel as though a large portion of those 25 routes will involve LT routes, subsequently more LTs moving to the outer suburbs. The Elizabeth Line core section opening may also play as a factor of which routes are affected, 390 comes to mind. Since the 23 has survived (for now) to Marble Arch as opposed to be withdrawn to Paddington and extended to Wembley, tfl may decide to pull the 7 out of the west end which was rumoured a few years ago to be cut once Crossrail opens. 23 diverted at Ladbroke Grove to East Acton and the 452 remaining/diverting to Westbourne Park and an increased 70 along Westbourne Park Road. I think the 7 will be left untouched. Only reason I say this is because TfL will want to see the full benefit of the hydrogen Streetdecks in heavily polluted areas such as Oxford Street. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2021 22:51:54 GMT
I'll give my very sad 3 most likely routes I could see affected by this: - 414 - 396 - 68/168 possibly I don't follow regarding the 396 - the changes are focused on Central London routes unless I'm missing something? All a bit weird why the 396 and Romford Rd are suddenly hot topics. Almost seems a bit of a wind up. Out of curiosity why would the 396 with its MASSIVE PVR OF 5 be cut ? |
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Post by danorak on Jan 16, 2021 1:18:06 GMT
I think we will be waving goodbye to what's left of the 15H. I would expect a thinning out of services along the Strand, with perhaps the 91 diverted over Waterloo Bridge to replace some journeys on the 521 and the 87 trimmed back to Trafalgar Square.
At the other end of the 521, diverting the 4 to London Bridge in part replacement could also create a useful connection from Barbican. Some journeys on the 507 to be replaced by diverting the 211.
Another attempt at withdrawing part of the 19 and the loss of journeys on the 38. A long overdue tidy-up of services around Ladbroke Grove and a thinning/merger of the 3/59/159 corridor.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Jan 16, 2021 1:29:29 GMT
I wonder what new terminus the 388 will have in these next range of central London changes
Joking aside I do wonder if the latest cuts could well see this route withdrawn?
I very well reckon so, it's sad this route and what a state of affairs it's become. The London Bridge reroute doesn't seem to have helped either, the 149 has shot up while the 388 has just plummeted so it's clear where the 48s users have all gone and the 388 is not where they are now. I wonder if we could see any involvement with the 26 as the obvious issue with a 388 withdrawal is the roads in Hackney that would be left unserved as the 388 is the only route which operates in the area around Victoria Park. Maybe it could be cut to Ash Grove, operating as an Ash Grove to Stratford route for the time being, and then maybe extended East of Stratford City if things ever improve. |
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Post by SILENCED on Jan 16, 2021 3:12:36 GMT
Interesting quote from the TfL Financial Substainability Plam
"However, over the 2020s, the nation’s bus network will go through a large transition as TfL moves to
electrifying the bus network which is currently planned to be completed in London by 2037 at the
latest. This will impact all as pects of operations."
This contradicts the 2030 deadline regularly quoted on this forum.
It models on 3 scenarios, with the outcome of the best possible scenario being electrification complete by end of 2030. Middle scenario, by end of 2033. Worst case scenario, electrification not completed by 2037. Interesting they use the term electrification and not zero emissions.
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Post by joefrombow on Jan 16, 2021 6:40:43 GMT
I don't follow regarding the 396 - the changes are focused on Central London routes unless I'm missing something? All a bit weird why the 396 and Romford Rd are suddenly hot topics. Almost seems a bit of a wind up. Out of curiosity why would the 396 with its MASSIVE PVR OF 5 be cut ? Still every little helps I guess could very easily be replaced with a loop on the 296 or nothing at all to be honest just deck the 296 , I think a few of the smaller routes that could easily be gone will go just think the 48 which was quite a busy route went so anything is possible , I think the 414 will now get the chop as if they go ahead with the shortening of the route the 14 basically covers the whole route , I can also see a few other routes being cut completely with nothing major in terms of replacement , the way people travel now will change forever unfortunately I think as will the world we live in after covid I.e more working from home etc less demand , less supply. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Jan 16, 2021 8:13:56 GMT
Interesting quote from the TfL Financial Substainability Plam "However, over the 2020s, the nation’s bus network will go through a large transition as TfL moves to electrifying the bus network which is currently planned to be completed in London by 2037 at the latest. This will impact all as pects of operations." This contradicts the 2030 deadline regularly quoted on this forum. It models on 3 scenarios, with the outcome of the best possible scenario being electrification complete by end of 2030. Middle scenario, by end of 2033. Worst case scenario, electrification not completed by 2037. Interesting they use the term electrification and not zero emissions. Again I did say several times on here that there hadn't been an official date change to 2030. As far as I'm concerned its completed when the last hybrids/diesels delivered in 2020 come to a natural end. That's either a 7 then 5 years contact (2032), two 5 years contracts (2030) or two 7 year contacts (2034). The worst cast scenario of 2037 may be that tfl know they need to keep the option of a cheaper hybrid bid open for a couple more years. Look at how they said all hybrids from 2012. In reality all routes only started being all hybrid from 2014 (54, 75, 96, 472, E1, C3, 319 etc etc) with diesel top ups on the 418, new on the 217 and then surprisingly the 62, 145 and 294 awarded with new diesels for a start date in 2016! |
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Post by twobellstogo on Jan 16, 2021 9:40:03 GMT
Thanks for creating this interesting thread. I was expecting cuts to be announced sooner or later. The goodness of this is that entire routes will not be axed.Not sure how soon we will see the first cut take place and what routes will be targeted? Re tenders, this could allow surplus buses floating around therefore can be deployed on bus routes due for tender soon. Wouldn't be so sure that no routes will be entirely withdrawn. But it depends on what proposals go out to make the cut, if you'll pardon the pun. I expect this will go out to consultation in June or July. A lot of it depends on the Mayoral election. Unlikely we'll see any major changes take place this side of Christmas. Off the top of my head as regards possible further cuts  390 withdrawn Kings Cross - Victoria. 73 to replace the Victoria section, rest not replaced resulting in thinning of frequency Kings Cross - Oxford Circus. 68 withdrawn Holborn - Euston, 188 withdrawn Aldwych - Russell Square, 172 withdrawn Elephant - Aldwych. 87 withdrawn Trafalgar Square - Aldwych 15H withdrawn: possible replacement with the Red Routemaster ‘Service H’, but that’s outside remit of this thread. 21 withdrawn Moorgate - Newington Green, leaving this section solely to the 141. 38 further thinned in frequency. Possible cut to 29 withdrawing part of the far southern section, leaving Charing Cross Road’s southern section to the 24 and 176. Rationalisation of the Victoria - Buckingham Palace Road corridor. Possible removal of the 211, with section west of Fulham Broadway replaced and rest not. I also see the section of the C1 between Sloane Square and Victoria as vulnerable. If 211 cut, that perhaps sees a possibility of putting the 53 in the 211 terminal and cutting a southern service (159?) back to Lambeth North. And I am not saying any of the above is good! |
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Post by londonboy71 on Jan 16, 2021 9:47:13 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. In case anyone has forgotten we're in lockdown so obviously usage would be very sparse in the evenings. Eg 120 very busy during shopping hours very quiet after about 7 PM |
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Post by twobellstogo on Jan 16, 2021 10:03:07 GMT
In the suburban areas I'd look more at the evening freqs. It's a much less 24h lifestyle then zones 1 and 2 and even pre Covid I'd see 154's with about 3 people on after 8pm and probably similar to routes like the 80, 127, 151 which could easily drop after 9pm to every 20 to 30 mins. In case anyone has forgotten we're in lockdown so obviously usage would be very sparse in the evenings. Eg 120 very busy during shopping hours very quiet after about 7 PM But you can’t base permanent evening cuts in the suburbs on what it’s like now : you have to think about post pandemic. |
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