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Post by M1104 on Dec 1, 2021 10:11:56 GMT
TfL is essentially a local authority and so if it issues an S114 it would not be able to run anything other than statutory services - those being school transport, taxi licensing, some trunk road repairs and the Woolwich Ferry. The Tube, DLR, Overground, Tramlink, TfL rail and the majority of the bus network would likely be closed - but past the immediate focus on statutory services, there could be a resumption of a slimmed down selection of services that make an absolute surplus. Surely that's very unlikely though - it would be carnage without public transport, I'd imagine the roads would be gridlocked because so many people would be driving Unlikely to get that bad in practice but it's what would theoratically happen in the worse case senario.
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Post by SILENCED on Dec 1, 2021 10:14:41 GMT
TfL is essentially a local authority and so if it issues an S114 it would not be able to run anything other than statutory services - those being school transport, taxi licensing, some trunk road repairs and the Woolwich Ferry. The Tube, DLR, Overground, Tramlink, TfL rail and the majority of the bus network would likely be closed - but past the immediate focus on statutory services, there could be a resumption of a slimmed down selection of services that make an absolute surplus. Its also unclear when any S114 would be triggered. The Government funding ends at end of period 9 (of 13) which is 11 December. The latest Finance report is going to be added as late material to next weeks TfL Board. Last I heard had about £0.2bn cash over minimum cash balance which suggests got 2-5 weeks before it becomes close to having to issue it. My own guess is some form of lower funding will be agreed once TfL concede a bit on fare rises and free tickets. Don't think they can wait until the last penny is spent, think it is when they can't set an realistic sustainable budget? Would think it would have to be announced as soon as unsuccessful negotiations are concluded.
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Post by richard on Dec 1, 2021 13:38:17 GMT
If an S114 is issued the whole network could be shut down without replacement. No Bakerloo line trains are on order, just Piccadilly line. The whole network. What! How can that happen. This is really bad. If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2021 13:44:19 GMT
The whole network. What! How can that happen. This is really bad. If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. that would be a disaster but I think there's a 90% chance it won't happen
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Post by COBO on Dec 1, 2021 13:45:05 GMT
The whole network. What! How can that happen. This is really bad. If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. Boris to the rescue we’ll sort of.
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Post by WH241 on Dec 1, 2021 13:48:47 GMT
The whole network. What! How can that happen. This is really bad. If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. The ferry would probably be on strike 😁
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Post by SILENCED on Dec 1, 2021 14:47:56 GMT
The whole network. What! How can that happen. This is really bad. If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. How the hell did Boris Bikes become a legal requirement?
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Post by southlondon413 on Dec 1, 2021 15:07:59 GMT
If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. How the hell did Boris Bikes become a legal requirement? Pretty sure they aren’t.
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Post by richard on Dec 1, 2021 15:28:50 GMT
If the worst case scenario did happen by law they will still have to run 1) school buses 2)private hire taxi 3) the Woolwich Ferry 4)boris bikes There would be no service on the Tube, Buses DLR, London Overground, TfL Rail, Cable Car and trams. The ferry would probably be on strike 😁 Or staff shortage that's the usual excuse 🤣
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Post by richard on Dec 1, 2021 15:30:47 GMT
How the hell did Boris Bikes become a legal requirement? Pretty sure they aren’t. The BBC Tom Edwards did mention the bikes in the the past before the first Bail out
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Post by ServerKing on Dec 1, 2021 17:00:10 GMT
I think the bikes will go, at least half of them end up being used for kids "trapping" as Stormzy alluded to... as for the Bakerloo line, part of it is served by the Overground DC line, some of the trains are 1967 stock displaced from the Victoria Line and are in a state. Talking of states, the "nanny state" Watch Your Speed campaign could be cut back, along with social distancing cycle lanes, end the riverbus if still in operation, get rid of the cable car to Nowhere... I think another bailout shows DfT that TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now. If there's to be another lockdown, it seems we are being nudged towards one, there will be even less on the network. As for Overground, it's run privately already (Arriva Rail London) and I think MTR are running the TfL Rail / Crossrail stuff. It just has TfL livery. I can see the government taking over. Part of this will be political will, I think TfL has too much to look after. I applaud some of the tech it wants to roll out, but it's hard to decide what you will spend on when you're broke
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Post by LondonNorthern on Dec 1, 2021 17:05:15 GMT
This really does emphasise the message that children really should start paying on public transport.
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Post by wirewiper on Dec 1, 2021 17:11:05 GMT
I think the bikes will go, at least half of them end up being used for kids "trapping" as Stormzy alluded to... as for the Bakerloo line, part of it is served by the Overground DC line, some of the trains are 1967 stock displaced from the Victoria Line and are in a state. Talking of states, the "nanny state" Watch Your Speed campaign could be cut back, along with social distancing cycle lanes, end the riverbus if still in operation, get rid of the cable car to Nowhere... I think another bailout shows DfT that TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now. If there's to be another lockdown, it seems we are being nudged towards one, there will be even less on the network. As for Overground, it's run privately already (Arriva Rail London) and I think MTR are running the TfL Rail / Crossrail stuff. It just has TfL livery. I can see the government taking over. Part of this will be political will, I think TfL has too much to look after. I applaud some of the tech it wants to roll out, but it's hard to decide what you will spend on when you're broke Yes, but the Government moved quickly to convert all rail franchises to management contracts in March 2020, and has supported the bus industry outside Londpon to the tune of £4billion to date with support for revenue shortfall continuing until at least April 2022. They too would all have gone bust without Government support. As part of the conditions for the bailouts, TfL was required to keep services at artificially high levels, to allow social distancing for those people who still needed to make essential journeys. This is precisely in line with the conditions that were applied to support given to all other bus and rail operators during the pandemic. To say "TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now" I think, is unfair. People have worked hard to keep services going during what has been a very difficult period for the transport industry, both in and out of London.
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Post by SILENCED on Dec 1, 2021 17:34:41 GMT
I think the bikes will go, at least half of them end up being used for kids "trapping" as Stormzy alluded to... as for the Bakerloo line, part of it is served by the Overground DC line, some of the trains are 1967 stock displaced from the Victoria Line and are in a state. Talking of states, the "nanny state" Watch Your Speed campaign could be cut back, along with social distancing cycle lanes, end the riverbus if still in operation, get rid of the cable car to Nowhere... I think another bailout shows DfT that TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now. If there's to be another lockdown, it seems we are being nudged towards one, there will be even less on the network. As for Overground, it's run privately already (Arriva Rail London) and I think MTR are running the TfL Rail / Crossrail stuff. It just has TfL livery. I can see the government taking over. Part of this will be political will, I think TfL has too much to look after. I applaud some of the tech it wants to roll out, but it's hard to decide what you will spend on when you're broke Yes, but the Government moved quickly to convert all rail franchises to management contracts in March 2020, and has supported the bus industry outside Londpon to the tune of £4billion to date with support for revenue shortfall continuing until at least April 2022. They too would all have gone bust without Government support. As part of the conditions for the bailouts, TfL was required to keep services at artificially high levels, to allow social distancing for those people who still needed to make essential journeys. This is precisely in line with the conditions that were applied to support given to all other bus and rail operators during the pandemic. To say "TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now" I think, is unfair. People have worked hard to keep services going during what has been a very difficult period for the transport industry, both in and out of London. But the government has bailed out TfL to the tune of 4bn. So London gets exactly the same as the rest of the country, yet 9m live in London, and 47m in rest of England ... London is getting its unfair share of help ... TfL can not continue to be a hemorrhaging cash cow ... it has to cut its cloth to its means ... either that or it can increase it revenues ... ie fare income. Needs to be about 40% ... do we ask existing users to pay 40% more, or do we look to make non-contributors pay? So subsidy of £445 per head in London £85 per head elsewhere.
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Post by wirewiper on Dec 1, 2021 18:32:10 GMT
Yes, but the Government moved quickly to convert all rail franchises to management contracts in March 2020, and has supported the bus industry outside Londpon to the tune of £4billion to date with support for revenue shortfall continuing until at least April 2022. They too would all have gone bust without Government support. As part of the conditions for the bailouts, TfL was required to keep services at artificially high levels, to allow social distancing for those people who still needed to make essential journeys. This is precisely in line with the conditions that were applied to support given to all other bus and rail operators during the pandemic. To say "TfL cannot run itself, if it were a private firm, it would have gone bust by now" I think, is unfair. People have worked hard to keep services going during what has been a very difficult period for the transport industry, both in and out of London. But the government has bailed out TfL to the tune of 4bn. So London gets exactly the same as the rest of the country, yet 9m live in London, and 47m in rest of England ... London is getting its unfair share of help ... TfL can not continue to be a hemorrhaging cash cow ... it has to cut its cloth to its means ... either that or it can increase it revenues ... ie fare income. Needs to be about 40% ... do we ask existing users to pay 40% more, or do we look to make non-contributors pay? So subsidy of £445 per head in London £85 per head elsewhere. The £4billion outside London is for bus services only. In London support for rail services is also a part of the bailouts. Going forward there is money to be made available for bus service recovery outside London, so London should also have some for that. The Government has plans to invest in industry and green energy as well as clean air and support for TfL to electrify bus services and modernise rail services (as part of an ongoing replacement of assets that needs to happen anyway) can be part of that.
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