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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 24, 2022 7:17:52 GMT
Whilst all countries have its interests, I condemn this fully as civilians will suffer greatly from war.
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 24, 2022 8:26:58 GMT
Let's hope we are not witnessing the modern day Czechoslovakia.
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Post by vjaska on Feb 24, 2022 12:40:10 GMT
Let's hope we are not witnessing the modern day Czechoslovakia. Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries |
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 24, 2022 12:54:23 GMT
Let's hope we are not witnessing the modern day Czechoslovakia. Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries Finland is not a member of NATO |
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Post by WH241 on Feb 24, 2022 14:04:52 GMT
Putin is very unstable and already making threats to the west!
Dread to think how this will develop over the next few days and weeks . Also likely to push gas and petrol prices even higher.
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Post by busman on Feb 24, 2022 14:12:43 GMT
Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries Finland is not a member of NATO And Finland dare not join NATO at this point in time. However they are a member of the EU and I think Russia invading an EU or NATO member state will be a red line for Western governments (I say hopefully) leading to a military response. Putin has the West in checkmate. Western economies have grown fat on Russian commodities and capital and cutting off the supply line abruptly will damage their entrenched positions. At the same time European armies have been scaled back and politically there is less appetite for conflict following interventions in the Middle East. Putin sees his chance to recapture part of the old Soviet Union and is doing so with impunity. Moscow has calculated that the benefits of recapturing Ukraine as part of its territory far outweighs the pain of anything its opponents are willing or able to do. It seems that Western governments may have underestimated Putin’s response to the prospect of Ukraine joining the EU (resulting in the annexation of Crimea) or joining NATO (resulting in what we are seeing today). When Russia sees a threat to its territory, it has shown willingness to act decisively with necessary force. Whilst Europe and the US are unwilling to do the same, Putin has a golden opportunity to restore part of the old Soviet block to Moscow. Moldova’s new government is on notice. I expect the same to happen there if it continues on its pro-EU course any time soon. |
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Post by vjaska on Feb 24, 2022 14:17:33 GMT
Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries Finland is not a member of NATO No but it gets included in talks involving security at times along with Sweden who also isn't part of NATO. |
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 24, 2022 14:31:15 GMT
Finland is not a member of NATO No but it gets included in talks involving security at times along with Sweden who also isn't part of NATO. Agree, but both Finland and Sweden, along with Ireland regard themselves a neutral. At least the first two could offer a little resistance, unlike Ireland that would have no option to surrender to any potential invaders. |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 24, 2022 18:36:47 GMT
Let's hope we are not witnessing the modern day Czechoslovakia. Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries What I feel most upset about is that Ukraine is caught in geopolitical games and ordinary people are suffering.
The biggest problem is that Belarus is open to Russian troops as Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus' President, is survived on a thread and only survived thanks to Russia. If Belarus was not open to Russian troops Kiev and Chernobyl Nuclear plant would be hard to attack.
Putin doesn't need the Baltics, as he has Kalliningrad Oblast, a small exclave on the Baltic Sea squished between Poland and Lithuania, also highly militarised. Baltics wouldn't offer any new benefits to Russia so I don't see them being invaded.
I believe everything will be swiftly done as a prolonged occupation is very expensive, and the scars will be a puppet government. In the USSR, many nuclear weapons were located in Ukraine and whilst the nuclear weaponry was returned to Russia in 1994 (per the Budapest Memorandum that Russia blatantly violated as it promised to protect Ukrainian Sovereignty) the facilities to transport and store nukes is still there from Soviet times and Russia is concerned that these facilities will be used to store Western nukes. Russia seeks to destroy those facilities in this invasion. Putin will seek guarantees that the North Crimea Canal, providing water to Crimea (before Ukraine blocked it as Russia annexed it into one of its own) will be reopened as Crimeans have no other water. Crimea is so pivotal for Russia as Sevastopol, the largest city on the Peninsula, houses the home of what was the Soviet and now Russian navy; again a Western-orientated Ukraine threatens this, it is also important to missions to Syria and Libya. Ukraine served as an important buffer to Russia as flat land which Russia could use in a war to attack the west but they are worried that flips and then the West will be able to easily attack Russia. Putin intends to push for the federalisation of Ukraine. This is so pro-Russian Ukrainian Oblasts could secure their local affairs, including culture. This would boost his diminishing popularity ratings among both Ukraine's ethnic Russians and Russians. Lastly, Putin wants to retake Chernobyl because of some huge hypersonic wall built in the Soviet times, which was of critical importance to Moscow. Reactivated, it could pose a significant threat to the whole of Europe.
The Ukrainian problem is that Crimea, Eastern Ukraine (including major cities like Kharkov and Odessa) were historically Russian not Ukrainian. These regions feel connected with Russia with nearly everybody speaking Russian. Crimea is three quarters ethnic Russian with even larger margins in Donbass. Just over 60% of Kharkov and Odessa are ethnic Russian due to Ukrainian arrivals but more than 90% speak Russian. Dniepropetrovsk Oblast whilst historically been ethnic Ukrainian and speaks Ukrainian in villages, in the city people speak Russian due to their poor cohert as inherited from the Soviet Union. Crimea, given to Ukraine in 1954, by ethnic Ukrainian Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev was done so purely for simpler administrative reasons whilst Eastern Ukraine was given to Ukraine by Lenin because of a policy of transferring lands of not that republic's titular lands to weaken that republic. This is why there is such conflict but Putin misuses that as a pretext of invasion which is ridiculous and horrific. The reasons those parts of Ukraine aren't happy as well is because of Ukrainianization ever so rampant since 2014 Euro maiden. They want Russian as an official language, Russian schools, etc. and I feel their pain in this perspective. I am an ethnic Russian from Latvia (we roughly make up just over a third of the population). Ethnic Russians were made 'Aliens' which took away the right to vote, own land or use public services that would be free for regular citizens (such as education for minors). Russian schools were banned and we are forced into learning a foreign language to us. Ethnic Russians in Latvia want ethnic harmony by giving everyone equal citizenships (without being forced into long, invasive, tricky tests to get citzenship that are nearly non-accessible) but do not feel close to Russia nor want to join it and whilst many support military neutrality support the EU. In the cultural aspect, I may feel sorry but in no way would I ever support an illegal and damaging invasion.
A problem to the West is Russian Energy dominance. Without energy a state can't function and without energy people will find it hard to live. Russia has a monopoly over Energy in Europe due to its Geography. Two-thirds of the UK's energy is Russian (roughly a third is Norweigan) and 95% and 90% in Germany and France respectively. Real damaging sanctions can't be implemented as Russia can make us toast so unless NATO goes to war with Russia in Ukraine, which won't be done as the gains of Ukraine compared to what could turn into World War 3 is zero. But if this continues in EU and NATO, Russia should expect the West fighting back. My greatest concern is Ukraine being used as a distraction. Russia and China are increasing moving closer and united in defeating the West. China envies Taiwan for its production of the Tech industry, specifically computor chips. In this modern world, due to all the tech being produced by the clever Taiwanese with Western ludicrous funding, if China gets Taiwan we will literally have no tech and an immediate check mate for the West. It is so pivotal the USA would be willing to go to war against China backed by Russia and that could see the whole planet killed by the virtue of nuclear tech. Peace is increasingly Utopia not Earth.
I am personally shocked by Putin's irrational moves and again I feel upset as ordinary people, men, women, children suffering.
Worrying Times...
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Post by busman on Feb 24, 2022 22:03:13 GMT
Or the beginning of Hitler mk2. We know that Putin is intent of rewriting history to make out everything is against them. The big problem (not that what’s happening now isn’t serious) will come if he intends to reform the USSR (it’s something he does really want to do) by invading the 3 Baltic countries as well as nearby Poland & parts of Finland given these are NATO countries What I feel most upset about is that Ukraine is caught in geopolitical games and ordinary people are suffering.
The biggest problem is that Belarus is open to Russian troops as Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus' President, is survived on a thread and only survived thanks to Russia. If Belarus was not open to Russian troops Kiev and Chernobyl Nuclear plant would be hard to attack.
Putin doesn't need the Baltics, as he has Kalliningrad Oblast, a small exclave on the Baltic Sea squished between Poland and Lithuania, also highly militarised. Baltics wouldn't offer any new benefits to Russia so I don't see them being invaded.
I believe everything will be swiftly done as a prolonged occupation is very expensive, and the scars will be a puppet government. In the USSR, many nuclear weapons were located in Ukraine and whilst the nuclear weaponry was returned to Russia in 1994 (per the Budapest Memorandum that Russia blatantly violated as it promised to protect Ukrainian Sovereignty) the facilities to transport and store nukes is still there from Soviet times and Russia is concerned that these facilities will be used to store Western nukes. Russia seeks to destroy those facilities in this invasion. Putin will seek guarantees that the North Crimea Canal, providing water to Crimea (before Ukraine blocked it as Russia annexed it into one of its own) will be reopened as Crimeans have no other water. Crimea is so pivotal for Russia as Sevastopol, the largest city on the Peninsula, houses the home of what was the Soviet and now Russian navy; again a Western-orientated Ukraine threatens this, it is also important to missions to Syria and Libya. Ukraine served as an important buffer to Russia as flat land which Russia could use in a war to attack the west but they are worried that flips and then the West will be able to easily attack Russia. Putin intends to push for the federalisation of Ukraine. This is so pro-Russian Ukrainian Oblasts could secure their local affairs, including culture. This would boost his diminishing popularity ratings among both Ukraine's ethnic Russians and Russians. Lastly, Putin wants to retake Chernobyl because of some huge hypersonic wall built in the Soviet times, which was of critical importance to Moscow. Reactivated, it could pose a significant threat to the whole of Europe.
The Ukrainian problem is that Crimea, Eastern Ukraine (including major cities like Kharkov and Odessa) were historically Russian not Ukrainian. These regions feel connected with Russia with nearly everybody speaking Russian. Crimea is three quarters ethnic Russian with even larger margins in Donbass. Just over 60% of Kharkov and Odessa are ethnic Russian due to Ukrainian arrivals but more than 90% speak Russian. Dniepropetrovsk Oblast whilst historically been ethnic Ukrainian and speaks Ukrainian in villages, in the city people speak Russian due to their poor cohert as inherited from the Soviet Union. Crimea, given to Ukraine in 1954, by ethnic Ukrainian Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev was done so purely for simpler administrative reasons whilst Eastern Ukraine was given to Ukraine by Lenin because of a policy of transferring lands of not that republic's titular lands to weaken that republic. This is why there is such conflict but Putin misuses that as a pretext of invasion which is ridiculous and horrific. The reasons those parts of Ukraine aren't happy as well is because of Ukrainianization ever so rampant since 2014 Euro maiden. They want Russian as an official language, Russian schools, etc. and I feel their pain in this perspective. I am an ethnic Russian from Latvia (we roughly make up just over a third of the population). Ethnic Russians were made 'Aliens' which took away the right to vote, own land or use public services that would be free for regular citizens (such as education for minors). Russian schools were banned and we are forced into learning a foreign language to us. Ethnic Russians in Latvia want ethnic harmony by giving everyone equal citizenships (without being forced into long, invasive, tricky tests to get citzenship that are nearly non-accessible) but do not feel close to Russia nor want to join it and whilst many support military neutrality support the EU. In the cultural aspect, I may feel sorry but in no way would I ever support an illegal and damaging invasion.
A problem to the West is Russian Energy dominance. Without energy a state can't function and without energy people will find it hard to live. Russia has a monopoly over Energy in Europe due to its Geography. Two-thirds of the UK's energy is Russian (roughly a third is Norweigan) and 95% and 90% in Germany and France respectively. Real damaging sanctions can't be implemented as Russia can make us toast so unless NATO goes to war with Russia in Ukraine, which won't be done as the gains of Ukraine compared to what could turn into World War 3 is zero. But if this continues in EU and NATO, Russia should expect the West fighting back. My greatest concern is Ukraine being used as a distraction. Russia and China are increasing moving closer and united in defeating the West. China envies Taiwan for its production of the Tech industry, specifically computor chips. In this modern world, due to all the tech being produced by the clever Taiwanese with Western ludicrous funding, if China gets Taiwan we will literally have no tech and an immediate check mate for the West. It is so pivotal the USA would be willing to go to war against China backed by Russia and that could see the whole planet killed by the virtue of nuclear tech. Peace is increasingly Utopia not Earth.
I am personally shocked by Putin's irrational moves and again I feel upset as ordinary people, men, women, children suffering.
Worrying Times...
Putin’s moves are completely rational in his mind for the reasons you have explained very well. It should not come as a surprise that he has done this. Years of unchecked Russian military aggression in the air and sea across Europe testing our defences with little more than a slap on the wrist. Putin has long desired to restore the glory days of the Soviet empire and it is no coincidence he is using the WW2 pretext of fighting Nazi’s as a rallying call for Russia. That pretext is a blatant and sickening lie. Ukraine’s democratically elected president is Jewish!! Can’t imagine that would happen in a country over run with neo-nazis. China will be watching this episode carefully. Tacitly they have been given the green light to take Taiwan’s independence in knowledge that there is zero appetite from Western governments to engage in military conflict outside their territories. We have been lucky to live in one of the longest prolonged periods of peace in Europe. I really hope that this stops with Ukraine. |
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Post by richard on Feb 24, 2022 23:23:12 GMT
The first official fatalities have been confirmed sadly
Ukrainian President Zelensky says 137 Ukrainian citizens both soldiers and civilians died on Thursday
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Post by ronnie on Feb 24, 2022 23:53:45 GMT
The one thing which is clear is that the west can do nothing nowadays except the diplomatic equivalent of posting support messages on Facebook and holding candlelight vigils (esp cuz power is too expensive!)
Putin has the whole of Europe by the b****s. As is clear the likes of Germany are very reluctant to do much lest Russia starve them of gas, thereby raising power prices even higher and having an electoral backlash. The U.K. can’t throw away even one oligarch so less said the better. Plus as soon as you think about sending any EU support the peaceniks will step in saying no to war. Europe is defeated / emasculated without a single bullet being fired
The US is busy saying bye then since Biden came to power. Not that trump would have done any better. They won’t defend Ukraine nor send any boots to the ground and for one I am sceptical they would come to the aid of any nato member as well
The west can’t impose more sanctions nor cut itself off Russian oil / gas / gold / minerals as that would cause huge damage to their own economies and this is something Russia knows very well. All they can do is shift the champions league final venue, how earth shattering. Putin is cowering under the table at this threat
Meanwhile thanks to the green brigade the EU has got rid of coal and nuclear. How lovely, now completely at the mercy of mr putin. The cynic in me is almost of the view that the green agenda was a master propaganda by Russia / China to become further dependent on them eventually
The only people who can help us are the Ukrainians themselves whom we have pushed literally under the bus (or tank). As bye then said so eloquently, they would come to the aid of nato countries, of which Ukraine isn’t a member. So you are all on your own, we will hold vigils while enjoying the caviar and vodka ….
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Post by vjaska on Feb 25, 2022 0:27:05 GMT
The one thing which is clear is that the west can do nothing nowadays except the diplomatic equivalent of posting support messages on Facebook and holding candlelight vigils (esp cuz power is too expensive!) Putin has the whole of Europe by the b****s. As is clear the likes of Germany are very reluctant to do much lest Russia starve them of gas, thereby raising power prices even higher and having an electoral backlash. The U.K. can’t throw away even one oligarch so less said the better. Plus as soon as you think about sending any EU support the peaceniks will step in saying no to war. Europe is defeated / emasculated without a single bullet being fired The US is busy saying bye then since Biden came to power. Not that trump would have done any better. They won’t defend Ukraine nor send any boots to the ground and for one I am sceptical they would come to the aid of any nato member as well The west can’t impose more sanctions nor cut itself off Russian oil / gas / gold / minerals as that would cause huge damage to their own economies and this is something Russia knows very well. All they can do is shift the champions league final venue, how earth shattering. Putin is cowering under the table at this threat Meanwhile thanks to the green brigade the EU has got rid of coal and nuclear. How lovely, now completely at the mercy of mr putin. The cynic in me is almost of the view that the green agenda was a master propaganda by Russia / China to become further dependent on them eventually The only people who can help us are the Ukrainians themselves whom we have pushed literally under the bus (or tank). As bye then said so eloquently, they would come to the aid of nato countries, of which Ukraine isn’t a member. So you are all on your own, we will hold vigils while enjoying the caviar and vodka …. There are ways out for the European countries majorly affected by a potential cutting off of the gas pipes. Unlike many others, UK doesn't have a reliance on Russia and instead gets it's own from USA & Qatar whilst Holland & Norway also produce gas though their production is dwarfed by Russia. The way out comes via us - UK pipelines into Europe have excess capacity and by us selling it to EU nations like Germany, we could essentially cripple a vital Russian revenue stream in the process and bring in much needed revenue here. |
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Post by ronnie on Feb 25, 2022 6:52:43 GMT
The one thing which is clear is that the west can do nothing nowadays except the diplomatic equivalent of posting support messages on Facebook and holding candlelight vigils (esp cuz power is too expensive!) Putin has the whole of Europe by the b****s. As is clear the likes of Germany are very reluctant to do much lest Russia starve them of gas, thereby raising power prices even higher and having an electoral backlash. The U.K. can’t throw away even one oligarch so less said the better. Plus as soon as you think about sending any EU support the peaceniks will step in saying no to war. Europe is defeated / emasculated without a single bullet being fired The US is busy saying bye then since Biden came to power. Not that trump would have done any better. They won’t defend Ukraine nor send any boots to the ground and for one I am sceptical they would come to the aid of any nato member as well The west can’t impose more sanctions nor cut itself off Russian oil / gas / gold / minerals as that would cause huge damage to their own economies and this is something Russia knows very well. All they can do is shift the champions league final venue, how earth shattering. Putin is cowering under the table at this threat Meanwhile thanks to the green brigade the EU has got rid of coal and nuclear. How lovely, now completely at the mercy of mr putin. The cynic in me is almost of the view that the green agenda was a master propaganda by Russia / China to become further dependent on them eventually The only people who can help us are the Ukrainians themselves whom we have pushed literally under the bus (or tank). As bye then said so eloquently, they would come to the aid of nato countries, of which Ukraine isn’t a member. So you are all on your own, we will hold vigils while enjoying the caviar and vodka …. There are ways out for the European countries majorly affected by a potential cutting off of the gas pipes. Unlike many others, UK doesn't have a reliance on Russia and instead gets it's own from USA & Qatar whilst Holland & Norway also produce gas though their production is dwarfed by Russia. The way out comes via us - UK pipelines into Europe have excess capacity and by us selling it to EU nations like Germany, we could essentially cripple a vital Russian revenue stream in the process and bring in much needed revenue here. The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… |
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Post by southlondon413 on Feb 25, 2022 7:08:33 GMT
The one thing which is clear is that the west can do nothing nowadays except the diplomatic equivalent of posting support messages on Facebook and holding candlelight vigils (esp cuz power is too expensive!) Putin has the whole of Europe by the b****s. As is clear the likes of Germany are very reluctant to do much lest Russia starve them of gas, thereby raising power prices even higher and having an electoral backlash. The U.K. can’t throw away even one oligarch so less said the better. Plus as soon as you think about sending any EU support the peaceniks will step in saying no to war. Europe is defeated / emasculated without a single bullet being fired The US is busy saying bye then since Biden came to power. Not that trump would have done any better. They won’t defend Ukraine nor send any boots to the ground and for one I am sceptical they would come to the aid of any nato member as well The west can’t impose more sanctions nor cut itself off Russian oil / gas / gold / minerals as that would cause huge damage to their own economies and this is something Russia knows very well. All they can do is shift the champions league final venue, how earth shattering. Putin is cowering under the table at this threat Meanwhile thanks to the green brigade the EU has got rid of coal and nuclear. How lovely, now completely at the mercy of mr putin. The cynic in me is almost of the view that the green agenda was a master propaganda by Russia / China to become further dependent on them eventually The only people who can help us are the Ukrainians themselves whom we have pushed literally under the bus (or tank). As bye then said so eloquently, they would come to the aid of nato countries, of which Ukraine isn’t a member. So you are all on your own, we will hold vigils while enjoying the caviar and vodka …. There are ways out for the European countries majorly affected by a potential cutting off of the gas pipes. Unlike many others, UK doesn't have a reliance on Russia and instead gets it's own from USA & Qatar whilst Holland & Norway also produce gas though their production is dwarfed by Russia. The way out comes via us - UK pipelines into Europe have excess capacity and by us selling it to EU nations like Germany, we could essentially cripple a vital Russian revenue stream in the process and bring in much needed revenue here. All of the LNG that comes from the US and Qatar comes in by ship, if Russia cuts Europe off the UK is vulnerable as there is less supply to go around. Yes the Netherlands and Norway produce gas but again their supply would have to be spread around and the North Sea just wouldn’t supply enough gas for demand. Unfortunately I don’t see us being a situation to replace what Russia produces, the UK barely has storage facilities. |
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