Post by northlondon83 on Feb 22, 2023 12:13:01 GMT
Almost one year on from the start of the invasion a different picture has been portrayed to what many have predicted.
Ukraine has not fallen, the conflict was not over as the desperate, deluded Putin thought he could take over Ukraine in 2 days or at most 2 weeks. The west remain united in supporting Ukraine too. However neither side is really winning and it's looking like it's going to be a long war.
Unless Putin gets overthrown, negotiations are out of the question, and so is Ukraine giving up land to Russia because that would be pointless as it would suggest that Russia is the stronger country.
Sanctions have hurt Russia but not to a great extent. Neither has life changed too much here with gas prices falling since June last year.
The only way I see this ending is that one side emerges victorious, although quite possibly not until 2024, Putin, despite his nuclear threats wouldn't dare to use nuclear weapons because he knows that the West will punish Russia hence neither the West nor Russia will exist, so using nuclear weapons is a lose lose situation for Putin. So is invading another country, especially a NATO one. God forbid that Russia wins, but if they did then Putin might be tempted to invade another country like Moldova which isn't part of NATO. However with the current invasion going badly, Putin is unlikely to succeed in taking Ukraine, let alone another country as the army will be depleted soon. If the West continues to support Ukraine, perhaps they can drive Russian forces out of Ukraine, possibly triggering the removal of Putin from power.
Things that could change the course of the war is if China gets actively involved, whilst a US presidency change could, and God forbid if Trump was to run and be elected, which would favour Russia. Personally I think Trump should never be allowed to run for president again, he's a danger to world peace and the invasion would have favoured Russia had Trump still been president, as he would have pulled Russia out of NATO, and quite possibly not supported Ukraine, giving into Putin's concessions.
Rumors still speculate about Putin's health and whilst we don't know for sure if he has cancer, it is clear that mentally and physically all is not well.
Let's hope this illegal war will be over soon, hopefully this year
Ukraine has not fallen, the conflict was not over as the desperate, deluded Putin thought he could take over Ukraine in 2 days or at most 2 weeks. The west remain united in supporting Ukraine too. However neither side is really winning and it's looking like it's going to be a long war.
Unless Putin gets overthrown, negotiations are out of the question, and so is Ukraine giving up land to Russia because that would be pointless as it would suggest that Russia is the stronger country.
Sanctions have hurt Russia but not to a great extent. Neither has life changed too much here with gas prices falling since June last year.
The only way I see this ending is that one side emerges victorious, although quite possibly not until 2024, Putin, despite his nuclear threats wouldn't dare to use nuclear weapons because he knows that the West will punish Russia hence neither the West nor Russia will exist, so using nuclear weapons is a lose lose situation for Putin. So is invading another country, especially a NATO one. God forbid that Russia wins, but if they did then Putin might be tempted to invade another country like Moldova which isn't part of NATO. However with the current invasion going badly, Putin is unlikely to succeed in taking Ukraine, let alone another country as the army will be depleted soon. If the West continues to support Ukraine, perhaps they can drive Russian forces out of Ukraine, possibly triggering the removal of Putin from power.
Things that could change the course of the war is if China gets actively involved, whilst a US presidency change could, and God forbid if Trump was to run and be elected, which would favour Russia. Personally I think Trump should never be allowed to run for president again, he's a danger to world peace and the invasion would have favoured Russia had Trump still been president, as he would have pulled Russia out of NATO, and quite possibly not supported Ukraine, giving into Putin's concessions.
Rumors still speculate about Putin's health and whilst we don't know for sure if he has cancer, it is clear that mentally and physically all is not well.
Let's hope this illegal war will be over soon, hopefully this year