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Post by southlondon413 on Feb 25, 2022 7:11:32 GMT
There are ways out for the European countries majorly affected by a potential cutting off of the gas pipes. Unlike many others, UK doesn't have a reliance on Russia and instead gets it's own from USA & Qatar whilst Holland & Norway also produce gas though their production is dwarfed by Russia. The way out comes via us - UK pipelines into Europe have excess capacity and by us selling it to EU nations like Germany, we could essentially cripple a vital Russian revenue stream in the process and bring in much needed revenue here. The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… Only approximately 5% of UK gas comes from Russia and in Europe it’s about 40%. Germany gets around 1/3 of its supply from Russia, not sure where you are getting your figures from. |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 8:46:49 GMT
The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… Only approximately 5% of UK gas comes from Russia and in Europe it’s about 40%. Germany gets around 1/3 of its supply from Russia, not sure where you are getting your figures from. That is the official statistics but many of the UK's sources have gas indirectly from Russia. Anyways, Germany does get 90%+ gas and bit lower in France (gets it's gas and oil indirectly from Germany who gets it directly from Russia). Even if the UK can afford saying no to Russia at the huge detriment to ordinary people here, Germany, France, Italy, etc. simply doesn't have that capacity. Basically, a simpler way of phrasing your point. |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 9:22:45 GMT
What I feel most upset about is that Ukraine is caught in geopolitical games and ordinary people are suffering.
The biggest problem is that Belarus is open to Russian troops as Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus' President, is survived on a thread and only survived thanks to Russia. If Belarus was not open to Russian troops Kiev and Chernobyl Nuclear plant would be hard to attack.
Putin doesn't need the Baltics, as he has Kalliningrad Oblast, a small exclave on the Baltic Sea squished between Poland and Lithuania, also highly militarised. Baltics wouldn't offer any new benefits to Russia so I don't see them being invaded.
I believe everything will be swiftly done as a prolonged occupation is very expensive, and the scars will be a puppet government. In the USSR, many nuclear weapons were located in Ukraine and whilst the nuclear weaponry was returned to Russia in 1994 (per the Budapest Memorandum that Russia blatantly violated as it promised to protect Ukrainian Sovereignty) the facilities to transport and store nukes is still there from Soviet times and Russia is concerned that these facilities will be used to store Western nukes. Russia seeks to destroy those facilities in this invasion. Putin will seek guarantees that the North Crimea Canal, providing water to Crimea (before Ukraine blocked it as Russia annexed it into one of its own) will be reopened as Crimeans have no other water. Crimea is so pivotal for Russia as Sevastopol, the largest city on the Peninsula, houses the home of what was the Soviet and now Russian navy; again a Western-orientated Ukraine threatens this, it is also important to missions to Syria and Libya. Ukraine served as an important buffer to Russia as flat land which Russia could use in a war to attack the west but they are worried that flips and then the West will be able to easily attack Russia. Putin intends to push for the federalisation of Ukraine. This is so pro-Russian Ukrainian Oblasts could secure their local affairs, including culture. This would boost his diminishing popularity ratings among both Ukraine's ethnic Russians and Russians. Lastly, Putin wants to retake Chernobyl because of some huge hypersonic wall built in the Soviet times, which was of critical importance to Moscow. Reactivated, it could pose a significant threat to the whole of Europe.
The Ukrainian problem is that Crimea, Eastern Ukraine (including major cities like Kharkov and Odessa) were historically Russian not Ukrainian. These regions feel connected with Russia with nearly everybody speaking Russian. Crimea is three quarters ethnic Russian with even larger margins in Donbass. Just over 60% of Kharkov and Odessa are ethnic Russian due to Ukrainian arrivals but more than 90% speak Russian. Dniepropetrovsk Oblast whilst historically been ethnic Ukrainian and speaks Ukrainian in villages, in the city people speak Russian due to their poor cohert as inherited from the Soviet Union. Crimea, given to Ukraine in 1954, by ethnic Ukrainian Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev was done so purely for simpler administrative reasons whilst Eastern Ukraine was given to Ukraine by Lenin because of a policy of transferring lands of not that republic's titular lands to weaken that republic. This is why there is such conflict but Putin misuses that as a pretext of invasion which is ridiculous and horrific. The reasons those parts of Ukraine aren't happy as well is because of Ukrainianization ever so rampant since 2014 Euro maiden. They want Russian as an official language, Russian schools, etc. and I feel their pain in this perspective. I am an ethnic Russian from Latvia (we roughly make up just over a third of the population). Ethnic Russians were made 'Aliens' which took away the right to vote, own land or use public services that would be free for regular citizens (such as education for minors). Russian schools were banned and we are forced into learning a foreign language to us. Ethnic Russians in Latvia want ethnic harmony by giving everyone equal citizenships (without being forced into long, invasive, tricky tests to get citzenship that are nearly non-accessible) but do not feel close to Russia nor want to join it and whilst many support military neutrality support the EU. In the cultural aspect, I may feel sorry but in no way would I ever support an illegal and damaging invasion.
A problem to the West is Russian Energy dominance. Without energy a state can't function and without energy people will find it hard to live. Russia has a monopoly over Energy in Europe due to its Geography. Two-thirds of the UK's energy is Russian (roughly a third is Norweigan) and 95% and 90% in Germany and France respectively. Real damaging sanctions can't be implemented as Russia can make us toast so unless NATO goes to war with Russia in Ukraine, which won't be done as the gains of Ukraine compared to what could turn into World War 3 is zero. But if this continues in EU and NATO, Russia should expect the West fighting back. My greatest concern is Ukraine being used as a distraction. Russia and China are increasing moving closer and united in defeating the West. China envies Taiwan for its production of the Tech industry, specifically computor chips. In this modern world, due to all the tech being produced by the clever Taiwanese with Western ludicrous funding, if China gets Taiwan we will literally have no tech and an immediate check mate for the West. It is so pivotal the USA would be willing to go to war against China backed by Russia and that could see the whole planet killed by the virtue of nuclear tech. Peace is increasingly Utopia not Earth.
I am personally shocked by Putin's irrational moves and again I feel upset as ordinary people, men, women, children suffering.
Worrying Times...
Putin’s moves are completely rational in his mind for the reasons you have explained very well. It should not come as a surprise that he has done this. Years of unchecked Russian military aggression in the air and sea across Europe testing our defences with little more than a slap on the wrist. Putin has long desired to restore the glory days of the Soviet empire and it is no coincidence he is using the WW2 pretext of fighting Nazi’s as a rallying call for Russia. That pretext is a blatant and sickening lie. Ukraine’s democratically elected president is Jewish!! Can’t imagine that would happen in a country over run with neo-nazis. China will be watching this episode carefully. Tacitly they have been given the green light to take Taiwan’s independence in knowledge that there is zero appetite from Western governments to engage in military conflict outside their territories. We have been lucky to live in one of the longest prolonged periods of peace in Europe. I really hope that this stops with Ukraine. I was surprised as I thought it was a bluff but I am sadly wrong.
I feel like the whole Ukraine thing is to distract the West whilst China suddenly invades Taiwan. The problem exactly is the West will be forced to interfere in Taiwan as it produces computor chips and all the tech necessary from computors themselves and modern weaponry. China will likely let Russia get some but the West no, no, and that will be destruction. Taiwan will be x5 more important than Iraq or Afghanistan. The reason the West didn't interfere in Ukraine as its not worth fighting a superpower over a somewhat valuable historic buffer of plains (the nuclear facilities are probably all/nearly all destroyed by now). Somebody mentioned Moldova and yes if it continues its current pro-EU path its toast. Priedniestrovie/Transnistria,a self-declared republic similar to DNP/LNR is a multi-ethnic strip of land on the river Dniester, and Russia supports it as it has a lot of valuable Soviet weaponry (potentially nukes) left there, used by Russia just now used missiles to attack Odessa. Russia has the ability to take out Moldova, however its more of a football game depending on the Moldovan President, just 2 years ago Igor Dodon a Russian Oligarch Communist won but was defeated by a nationalist pro-EU Maia Sandu (and Dodon defeated a pro-EU President who succeeded pro-Russian former Communist First Secretary Vladimir Voronin).
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 25, 2022 9:26:00 GMT
There are ways out for the European countries majorly affected by a potential cutting off of the gas pipes. Unlike many others, UK doesn't have a reliance on Russia and instead gets it's own from USA & Qatar whilst Holland & Norway also produce gas though their production is dwarfed by Russia. The way out comes via us - UK pipelines into Europe have excess capacity and by us selling it to EU nations like Germany, we could essentially cripple a vital Russian revenue stream in the process and bring in much needed revenue here. The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… It does have a rich supply of other valuable minerals though! We may not buy direct from Russia, we get a the largest supply from Norway, but there will be plenty of additional countries wanting to buy the gas from Norway, which will either mean extra demand generates (huge) price rises, or the UKs portion from Norway will be rationed as other countries take a slice. From no1 hit on Google. Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. |
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Post by southlondon413 on Feb 25, 2022 9:29:48 GMT
Only approximately 5% of UK gas comes from Russia and in Europe it’s about 40%. Germany gets around 1/3 of its supply from Russia, not sure where you are getting your figures from. That is the official statistics but many of the UK's sources have gas indirectly from Russia. Anyways, Germany does get 90%+ gas and bit lower in France (gets it's gas and oil indirectly from Germany who gets it directly from Russia). Even if the UK can afford saying no to Russia at the huge detriment to ordinary people here, Germany, France, Italy, etc. simply doesn't have that capacity. Basically, a simpler way of phrasing your point. That 90% figure for Germany sounds a like a Twitter conspiracy, with very little fact. No offence to you of course. |
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Post by SILENCED on Feb 25, 2022 9:34:17 GMT
That is the official statistics but many of the UK's sources have gas indirectly from Russia. Anyways, Germany does get 90%+ gas and bit lower in France (gets it's gas and oil indirectly from Germany who gets it directly from Russia). Even if the UK can afford saying no to Russia at the huge detriment to ordinary people here, Germany, France, Italy, etc. simply doesn't have that capacity. Basically, a simpler way of phrasing your point. That 90% figure for Germany sounds a like a Twitter conspiracy, with very little fact. No offence to you of course. I maybe being taken for a fool, but think this article is reasonably accurate on EU gas supplies. www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/02/how-europe-is-dependent-on-russian-gas |
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Post by TNL33036 on Feb 25, 2022 9:54:56 GMT
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Post by WH241 on Feb 25, 2022 10:42:36 GMT
That is the official statistics but many of the UK's sources have gas indirectly from Russia. Anyways, Germany does get 90%+ gas and bit lower in France (gets it's gas and oil indirectly from Germany who gets it directly from Russia). Even if the UK can afford saying no to Russia at the huge detriment to ordinary people here, Germany, France, Italy, etc. simply doesn't have that capacity. Basically, a simpler way of phrasing your point. That 90% figure for Germany sounds a like a Twitter conspiracy, with very little fact. No offence to you of course. The Twitter experts who gained overnight medical degrees in 2020 are now are experts on Russia. |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 12:24:17 GMT
That's the article I read! |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 12:26:42 GMT
The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… It does have a rich supply of other valuable minerals though! We may not buy direct from Russia, we get a the largest supply from Norway, but there will be plenty of additional countries wanting to buy the gas from Norway, which will either mean extra demand generates (huge) price rises, or the UKs portion from Norway will be rationed as other countries take a slice. From no1 hit on Google. Ukraine has extremely rich and complementary mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity to each other. The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber, and mercury. It's true but the problem is Ukraine is so poor and corrupt it can't even sell those natural resources, well it appears that market is no longer avalibale... Additionally, Ukraine, because of previously stated factors, can't afford to exploit its potential in that industry.
Lot's of coal on Dobass, alongside in Kuzbass (Kemerovo, Russia) that is where the USSR took all its coal.
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 12:30:15 GMT
Most likely Russia will in the coming days stage a coup against Zelensky and his government. Potential names for a Pro-Russian replacement is Dmitry Medvechuk (Ukrainian MP, Oligarch who is Putin's personal friend and under house arrest), one of the DNR/LNR self-declared republics and some Russian (oppositionist) media operating from other countries suggests Putin is considering reinstating Viktor Yanukovych, former pro-Russian ousted Ukrainian President under the pretext his exit was illegal (despite impeachment).
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Post by southlondon413 on Feb 25, 2022 12:42:01 GMT
Most likely Russia will in the coming days stage a coup against Zelensky and his government. Potential names for a Pro-Russian replacement is Dmitry Medvechuk (Ukrainian MP, Oligarch who is Putin's personal friend and under house arrest), one of the DNR/LNR self-declared republics and some Russian (oppositionist) media operating from other countries suggests Putin is considering reinstating Viktor Yanukovych, former pro-Russian ousted Ukrainian President under the pretext his exit was illegal (despite impeachment). It entirely depends on whether Russian troops are able to take Kyiv and by all account the Ukrainians will defend it. But the other problem with a coup is that most world governments would fail to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign state, leading to further deterioration in the situation. Even the Taliban is calling for a peaceful solution to solve the Ukraine/Russia problem, that’s how messed up this whole thing is. |
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Post by ronnie on Feb 25, 2022 12:46:49 GMT
The U.K. gets 2/3 of its gas supplies from Russia. Although we are better off than the Germans who get 90%+ (maybe even 95%+) from Russia. You cut off Russian gas supplies, bills go through the roof (if you have one left post Eunice) and we know where that story goes then The global gas market is very tight (gas is more concentrated than oil from a supply perspective). It’s not as if magically you drill a hole in your backyard and get gas …. The US was trying to help various European countries have access to Qatari gas as an example (see the correlation between oil / gas and despots!) but the entire world is looking at that so not possible. Ironically (despite the good intentions) the green brigade might have made things worse as now there is no coal, no nuclear (if these backups had still existed we could have probably reduced our dependence on Russian gas!). Strategy 101 and art of war dictate that you always need to retain an option - here we have done the equivalent of cutting off our own legs. Instead we rely on solar energy in the U.K. (really??) and Russian gas - Mr. Putin has made enough money in the past year so as to shrug off any sanctions Now if Ukraine had vast oil reserves …… Only approximately 5% of UK gas comes from Russia and in Europe it’s about 40%. Germany gets around 1/3 of its supply from Russia, not sure where you are getting your figures from. Apologies I did get the numbers wrong (serves me right for shooting from the hip !) but yes for Germany it is >1/3 which is not insignificant and hence the German reluctance |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 13:39:20 GMT
Most likely Russia will in the coming days stage a coup against Zelensky and his government. Potential names for a Pro-Russian replacement is Dmitry Medvechuk (Ukrainian MP, Oligarch who is Putin's personal friend and under house arrest), one of the DNR/LNR self-declared republics and some Russian (oppositionist) media operating from other countries suggests Putin is considering reinstating Viktor Yanukovych, former pro-Russian ousted Ukrainian President under the pretext his exit was illegal (despite impeachment). It entirely depends on whether Russian troops are able to take Kyiv and by all account the Ukrainians will defend it. But the other problem with a coup is that most world governments would fail to recognise Ukraine as a sovereign state, leading to further deterioration in the situation. Even the Taliban is calling for a peaceful solution to solve the Ukraine/Russia problem, that’s how messed up this whole thing is. The harsh reality is that Russia will succeed in toppling Kiev, and it's all about logistics. |
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Post by dashing0ne on Feb 25, 2022 13:40:14 GMT
Only approximately 5% of UK gas comes from Russia and in Europe it’s about 40%. Germany gets around 1/3 of its supply from Russia, not sure where you are getting your figures from. Apologies I did get the numbers wrong (serves me right for shooting from the hip !) but yes for Germany it is >1/3 which is not insignificant and hence the German reluctance It's all about transportation aswell like southlondon413 mentioned as well as indirect sourcing so in that world a 1/3 means near total monopoly. |
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