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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Mar 30, 2023 13:18:23 GMT
What would be considered above average? I'm not too sure if it's been revised since the cost of living crisis, but it has been reported that 17 passengers per journey is the minimum patronage needed to break even. I say average as bus routes don't get the immediate chop if it doesn't hit 17 on every trip. A route like the 492 for example is very quiet during the late evenings but brimming during the peaks and weekends. Because it's relatively cheap to put on night journeys and some routes were profitable, it's worth considering a few weekend night routes for 24/7 operation. From memory the 123N averaged roughly 23 pax per journey. I think you are mistaken in the 17 figure. It's known that more than half of Londons routes, with varying figures even going down as low as only 10 routes are actually profitable since the pandemic. |
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Post by WH241 on Mar 30, 2023 13:23:12 GMT
Was thinking more of routes like the N145 which only managed to carry a few hundred passengers per night. Surely that can’t have been viable? Maybe not that route, but the 34N, 123N and 158N all consistently carried above average figures proving their viability. Should we completely ignore the handful of routes performing well and condemn all 17 weekend night bus routes because one isn't hitting targets? I simply asked did the routes cover their running costs and used the N145 as an example because it was consulted on before being permanently withdrawn!! |
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Post by WH241 on Mar 30, 2023 13:24:54 GMT
I'm not too sure if it's been revised since the cost of living crisis, but it has been reported that 17 passengers per journey is the minimum patronage needed to break even. I say average as bus routes don't get the immediate chop if it doesn't hit 17 on every trip. A route like the 492 for example is very quiet during the late evenings but brimming during the peaks and weekends. Because it's relatively cheap to put on night journeys and some routes were profitable, it's worth considering a few weekend night routes for 24/7 operation. From memory the 123N averaged roughly 23 pax per journey. I think you are mistaken in the 17 figure. It's known that more than half of Londons routes, with varying figures even going down as low as only 10 routes are actually profitable since the pandemic. Maybe I’m missing something obvious but how can services carrying so few passengers be profitable? Say a bus has 10 passengers at £1.75 that’s less than £20 per trip? |
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Post by enviroPB on Mar 30, 2023 14:09:58 GMT
I'm not too sure if it's been revised since the cost of living crisis, but it has been reported that 17 passengers per journey is the minimum patronage needed to break even. I say average as bus routes don't get the immediate chop if it doesn't hit 17 on every trip. A route like the 492 for example is very quiet during the late evenings but brimming during the peaks and weekends. Because it's relatively cheap to put on night journeys and some routes were profitable, it's worth considering a few weekend night routes for 24/7 operation. From memory the 123N averaged roughly 23 pax per journey. Presumably that is 17 fare paying passengers, not those capped, with free passes, or Travelcards. That is only £29.75 ... does that really cover the costs? Apparently it's the breakeven point for running services. This was the figure quoted by the late, great Snoggle when discussing the viability of weekend night routes back in 2015/16 so it could be a bit outdated. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Mar 30, 2023 14:41:09 GMT
Presumably that is 17 fare paying passengers, not those capped, with free passes, or Travelcards. That is only £29.75 ... does that really cover the costs? Apparently it's the breakeven point for running services. This was the figure quoted by the late, great Snoggle when discussing the viability of weekend night routes back in 2015/16 so it could be a bit outdated. I'd imagine it's changed considerably since then, no route has a set number as all are run at different prices. If we look at the 145 with the new contract starting next month. It's £5.39 per mile, with 12 miles in a trip. That's £64.68 per trip that TfL need to fork out. 17 fare paying passengers working out to £29.75 is a hefty loss, you don't even make 50% of the costs on that route. You'd need around 37 passengers in order to break even on the 145, let alone make a profit. These numbers will stack up a lot more if you include it through an entire night. This doesn't include the admin costs either of running the route, this is solely what gets paid to operators. The cost of keeping TfL infrastructure available at that time also plays a part in the cost. |
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Post by londonbuses on Mar 30, 2023 14:48:37 GMT
I don't think many Night Tube routes are particularly sustainable to come back at the moment with the current financial situation - however I think the 154 definitely warrants a 24/7 night service.
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Post by southlondon413 on Mar 30, 2023 15:06:55 GMT
I don't think many Night Tube routes are particularly sustainable to come back at the moment with the current financial situation - however I think the 154 definitely warrants a 24/7 night service. Maybe Friday/Saturday but there just isn’t enough of a nightlife in the area to justify it full time. It would be better to link it together with the N155 or the N44 for example providing a proper night service from Central London and an alternative to the N109. Even routes like the 213 don’t really justify a night service anymore and in fact a half hourly night x26 would be a sufficient replacement. However none of it will happen as long as TfL continues to issue record number of minicab licences. It’s pure profit to get a minicab license payment rather than a cost for a night bus. |
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Post by uakari on Mar 30, 2023 17:43:28 GMT
Funny how they just 'forgot' about unsuspending these routes, something that could have actually reduced reliance on cars.
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Post by southlondonbus on Mar 30, 2023 18:00:04 GMT
Funny how they just 'forgot' about unsuspending these routes, something that could have actually reduced reliance on cars. I'm not sure cars on the road at 3am is a huge concern to TFL really. |
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Post by uakari on Mar 30, 2023 18:04:15 GMT
Funny how they just 'forgot' about unsuspending these routes, something that could have actually reduced reliance on cars. I'm not sure cars on the road at 3am is a huge concern to TFL really. Especially when they can make money from them. |
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Post by abellion on Mar 30, 2023 18:57:48 GMT
I don't think many Night Tube routes are particularly sustainable to come back at the moment with the current financial situation - however I think the 154 definitely warrants a 24/7 night service. People have been saying this for years about the 154 but it’s really questionable now. The 213 is running around overnight with abysmally low passenger numbers and was already withdrawn from Croydon for low usage years ago. Like others have said these routes don’t appear to be making anything but losses, not to mention the 154 didn’t even perform that well - it occasionally, if not always, fell into the bottom 10 used night routes. |
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Post by southlondonbus on Mar 30, 2023 19:09:47 GMT
Apparently it's the breakeven point for running services. This was the figure quoted by the late, great Snoggle when discussing the viability of weekend night routes back in 2015/16 so it could be a bit outdated. I'd imagine it's changed considerably since then, no route has a set number as all are run at different prices. If we look at the 145 with the new contract starting next month. It's £5.39 per mile, with 12 miles in a trip. That's £64.68 per trip that TfL need to fork out. 17 fare paying passengers working out to £29.75 is a hefty loss, you don't even make 50% of the costs on that route. You'd need around 37 passengers in order to break even on the 145, let alone make a profit. These numbers will stack up a lot more if you include it through an entire night. This doesn't include the admin costs either of running the route, this is solely what gets paid to operators. The cost of keeping TfL infrastructure available at that time also plays a part in the cost. And that's if everyone pays a £1.75 fare. Anyone with season tickets theoretically don't add to the revenue whether the (N)145 runs or not. |
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Post by WH241 on Mar 30, 2023 19:13:15 GMT
Funny how they just 'forgot' about unsuspending these routes, something that could have actually reduced reliance on cars. The weekend services in general were for the night-time economy so doubt many of them would be driving after a drink or two. Most probably use Uber or alternative night services that run nearby. |
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Post by greenboy on Mar 30, 2023 19:30:02 GMT
I don't think many Night Tube routes are particularly sustainable to come back at the moment with the current financial situation - however I think the 154 definitely warrants a 24/7 night service. People have been saying this for years about the 154 but it’s really questionable now. The 213 is running around overnight with abysmally low passenger numbers and was already withdrawn from Croydon for low usage years ago. Like others have said these routes don’t appear to be making anything but losses, not to mention the 154 didn’t even perform that well - it occasionally, if not always, fell into the bottom 10 used night routes. The story about the 154 is that TfL decided to standardise things and only run the 213 between Sutton and Kingston at night and were planning to make the 154 a 24hr service but GAL wanted a small fortune to run it so TfL decided not to bother with it. I'm pretty sure that at very least an hourly night service could be justified between Croydon and Sutton. |
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Post by LondonNorthern on Mar 30, 2023 19:33:19 GMT
Funny how they just 'forgot' about unsuspending these routes, something that could have actually reduced reliance on cars. Not to agree or disagree with your point but I will list the passenger density of each weekend night bus route (this is number of passengers versus the number of kilometres operated and these stats can be found on any of the relevant Bus Usage Statistics threads created annually, although these are 2018-19 figures I am going off) and you will see that some of these barely even get a passenger per kilometre. This isn't necessarily me saying I wouldn't advocate for a night network of buses, but many of these night variants of daily routes just don't make any money. Rather than going through the lengthy consultation process to remove a long-standing night route, I should imagine it is far simpler just to withdraw these permanently IN TFL's eyes.
(N)34 - 0.91 passengers per kilometre (27 825 passengers versus 30 522 kilometres operated) (N)114 - 0.74 passengers per kilometre (22 458 passengers versus 30 222 kilometres operated)
(N)123 - 1.11 passengers per kilometre (32 031 passengers versus 28 759 kilometres operated) (N)132 - 0.6 passengers per kilometre (16 301 passengers versus 27 383 kilometres operated)
(N)145 - 0.74 passengers per kilometre (33 216 passengers versus 44 700 kilometres operated) (N)154 - 0.84 passengers per kilometre (19 589 passengers versus 23 223 kilometres operated) (N)158 - 1.78 passengers per kilometre (28 844 passengers versus 16 130 kilometres operated) (N)183 - 0.92 passengers per kilometre (29 578 passengers versus 31 985 kilometres operated)
(N)213 - 0.6 passengers per kilometre (44 863 passengers versus 74 323 kilometres operated)
(N)296 - 0.72 passengers per kilometre (24 230 passengers versus 33 548 kilometres operated) (N)307 - 0.65 passengers per kilometre (16 250 passengers versus 25 006 kilometres operated) (N)319 - 1.09 passengers per kilometre (27 310 passengers versus 24 962 kilometres operated) (N)486 - 1.08 passengers per kilometre (23 601 passengers versus 21 875 kilometres operated)
(N)E1 - 1.39 passengers per kilometre (11 354 passengers versus 8 153 kilometres operated) (N)H32 - 0.97 passengers per kilometre (11 549 passengers versus 11 900 kilometres operated) (N)H37 - 0.53 passengers per kilometre (8 067 passengers versus 15 127 kilometres operated) (N)W3 - 1.17 passengers per kilometre (23 688 passengers versus 20 310 kilometres operated) (N)W7 - 1.98 passengers per kilometre (25 075 passengers versus 12 678 kilometres operated)
Most night services don't have a particularly high passenger density - and that is probably the main reason why they are so susceptible to cuts. There might be ethical reasons behind operating them which are entirely valid such as people who work in hospitals having a night service, and particularly women's safety as was proved by Sarah Everard. But I feel TFLs main decision behind choosing to not reinstate them being they have too low passenger usage to justify operating them. Granted, judging by these statistics the N158, NE1 and NW7 should not be a problem re-integrating into the night network when you line it up against plenty of other night bus services that operate throughout the week, but whether they would be is another story. Plus plenty of other night time alternatives such as Uber have no doubt impacted the night time bus travel market and it remains to be seen whether TFL can find an effective and competitive way of winning back punters. |
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