Xmas fun : 2019-2020 Predictions

[​galwhv69]

P13 will stop serving West Dulwich Stn and go via Alleyn Park,Park Hall Road & Croxted Road as a "Temporary" *Cough Cough* Diversion

[planesandtrains]

For next year:

More RATP tender wins meaning that Citaro's once again become a dominant type in London
Abellio lose the K1 to RATP
Stagecoach win a route
More PVR reductions, a few 'consultations' splatted in for good measure.

[Deleted]

Stagecoach have a big comeback in east London buying either CT Plus TfL Operation or Tower Transit (LI)

[snowman]

By mid 2019 Tower Transit will have left London having sold it remaining London routes, the buyer will then move into TT garages, close one of its own and sell the site for 1000 apartments which will be sold to Asian speculators

[thewintersoldier]

Dec 22, 2016 14:37:25 GMT thewintersoldier said:

316 to still be single decker.

as above..... rollover

[bengady3]

TFL will run a consultation to extend the route 81 to Plymouth and the route will be operated by the Green Army

[snoggle]

Dec 29, 2017 21:42:16 GMT @ratplondon said:

Further stagnating bus usage in London - further frequency trim backs but the rate of cuts slowed.

I'd love to believe that might be true but the TfL business plan requires massive cuts to mileage and it can't all come from the central area. The only thing that might bring a change is if more fare paying passengers use buses and I can't see where they are going to come from if services are worsened across London. The current Mayoral policy for buses is intellectually illiterate and no one at City Hall seems to realise.

Looking ahead I think there will be major problems come 2019/20. No one can predict how travel patterns are going to change as Crossrail / Thameslink kick in. Other changes to rail and tube services are only partially known at this time and there are huge risks with all of the big S London rail franchises. It is also clear that at least two sets of major roadworks will be underway at Waterloo and Vauxhall at the same time. I think people in South London are going to have a difficult time with public transport and that will have electoral consequences in the 2020 Mayoral election as will the fares issue.

North of the Thames is perhaps slightly less volatile for rail but we will still have HS2 works, Thameslink trying to bed down and risks around new rolling stock for Greater Anglia, London and Northwestern, Crossrail and London Overground. If all those networks become unreliable because of trying to get large numbers of new trains into service the consequences could be severe. There will also be political problems for the Mayor and DfT and it could be very badly timed if the Mayor is trying to take on some rail services discarded from the DfT's restructure of GTR. Bad reliability on the Overground at that time could cause opposition to TfL being handed more services even on a small scale.

I can't see many sunny uplands I'm afraid.

[wirewiper]

I too think that bus cuts will continue to bite. Most routes will have been visited by frequency reductions by 2020 and some will have disappeared completely, as the Bus Hopper ticket means that people changing buses are no longer seen as being "penalised" by having to pay again.

I wouldn't be surprised if another major players pulls out of London, like First did in 2013.

The 60+ Oyster could well be scrapped after the next GLA/Mayoral elections, although of course it won't be mentioned in any of the campaigning.

More cuts to cross-boundary services, and increasingly sections of these routes within Greater London will not be covered either (again, this won't make the manifestos!).

[twobellstogo]

Dec 29, 2017 22:28:30 GMT snoggle said:

Dec 29, 2017 21:42:16 GMT @ratplondon said:

Further stagnating bus usage in London - further frequency trim backs but the rate of cuts slowed.

I'd love to believe that might be true but the TfL business plan requires massive cuts to mileage and it can't all come from the central area. The only thing that might bring a change is if more fare paying passengers use buses and I can't see where they are going to come from if services are worsened across London. The current Mayoral policy for buses is intellectually illiterate and no one at City Hall seems to realise.

Looking ahead I think there will be major problems come 2019/20. No one can predict how travel patterns are going to change as Crossrail / Thameslink kick in. Other changes to rail and tube services are only partially known at this time and there are huge risks with all of the big S London rail franchises. It is also clear that at least two sets of major roadworks will be underway at Waterloo and Vauxhall at the same time. I think people in South London are going to have a difficult time with public transport and that will have electoral consequences in the 2020 Mayoral election as will the fares issue.

North of the Thames is perhaps slightly less volatile for rail but we will still have HS2 works, Thameslink trying to bed down and risks around new rolling stock for Greater Anglia, London and Northwestern, Crossrail and London Overground. If all those networks become unreliable because of trying to get large numbers of new trains into service the consequences could be severe. There will also be political problems for the Mayor and DfT and it could be very badly timed if the Mayor is trying to take on some rail services discarded from the DfT's restructure of GTR. Bad reliability on the Overground at that time could cause opposition to TfL being handed more services even on a small scale.

I can't see many sunny uplands I'm afraid.

I think there's going to be quite the punch-up when the Southeastern franchise is awarded, and I sadly predict the RMT/SWR dispute will become very ugly indeed for all parties involved this year - Union, workers and me, the poor passenger.
To compound this, I have a feeling Crossrail preparation will overrun and it will fail to open to Abbey Wood this year, meaning the rest of the openings get put back.

[snoggle]

Jan 3, 2018 17:10:02 GMT twobellstogo said:

To compound this, I have a feeling Crossrail preparation will overrun and it will fail to open to Abbey Wood this year, meaning the rest of the openings get put back.

Interesting. Val Shawcross said one of the biggest risks for TfL this year was Crossrail failing to open on time. She went on to say they were keeping almost a daily eye on progress and were confident it would open on time. She added that any delay will cause significant issues for the budget as the extra revenue is absolutely critical.

I am not as pessimistic as you on Crossrail purely because TfL will move heaven and earth to make sure it opens. The reputational damage will be immense if it is late. I do think some places may open in a not quite finished state - Whitechapel is already being portrayed (on that recently released map) as not fully accessible on day one suggesting the new ticket hall may open but not all the lifts will be functional and I'd not be shocked to see finishes etc not wholly finished in parts of the station. It's been clear to me for many months that Whitechapel and Liv St / Moorgate are very late. I have long predicted that this stage of the project will be difficult / fraught because you are driving towards immovable public deadlines and certain groups know this and will use their industrial muscle to get extra money by threatening strikes. There are already rumours of electrician strikes - exactly as happened with the Jubilee Line extension in 1999.

There are already lingering issues over the class 345 reliability, potential signalling integration issues in reaching Heathrow and the start of test running using electric power on the Abbey Wood branch. These things can't slip very much more before they start imperiling later, more important milestones.

[Deleted]

Bit late to this, 4 days into 2018.

1. Short term sub contracted work on the remaining GR routes as staff jump ship before contract expiry & 340 will pass to RATP by end of 2018.
2. Closure of a Stagecoach garage in East London.
3. Major winter storm in February
4. Withdrawal of route RV1
5. Go Ahead enter London Sightseeing business by purchase of Big Bus or Golden Tours.

[capitalomnibus]

Dec 29, 2017 21:42:16 GMT @ratplondon said:

RATP London will continue their stunning growth - I predict in 2018 another 100-130 buses of work will be won - all organically through tender wins rather than acquisitions. A new depot or 2 will be opened somewhere, possibly around Croydon and Sutton, in addition to the planned Oxhey base. 

Tower Transit will be sold - who to I don't know.

Further stagnating bus usage in London - further frequency trim backs but the rate of cuts slowed.

Further in-roads made by tech companies, Citymapper, Chariot etc

Arriva will be sold by DB like the rumour mill elsewhere has recently been suggesting - I've heard rumours National Express, Keolis and a private equity company called Terra Firma are looking closely it.

That's it for me. On a personal note, I hope I lose a little more weight, and get my bike working again!

The rumour about Arriva has been going on nearly 6 years now. They restructured the bus division and is a keeps at the moment ....

[ThinLizzy]

Here's mine:

Go-Ahead will still be running buses on the 57 and 131 without correct blinds

Tower Transit will still be around

Blinds will not be replaced by newer modern technology

People will still get impatient about upcoming tender results

[YY13VKP]

Jan 5, 2018 22:45:47 GMT ThinLizzy said:

Here's mine:


People will still get impatient about upcoming tender results

Love that  , unfortunately people won't stop unless we somehow educate them on how tendering works, for those who are in the know.
Here are my predictions:

Tower Transit to be sold to FirstGroup
Abellio lose the 109 and 407 to Arriva
Route 685 will be withdrawn
New blind technology will be introduced - if they can introduce something similar to the side blind trial on SEe9, then it may be able to work for other blinds too, and be rolled out across the fleet.
Free Wi-Fi and new iBus to be rolled out. 
Metroline buy BC from Abellio, and begin operations in South London
Go-Ahead and Arriva start expanding into West London.
Go-Ahead split up their brands in London, keeping the Go-Ahead London name as the legal address but rebranding each bus with the individual subsidiary names only, similar to what is currently going on at Go South Coast. 
More Citaros ordered

[COBO]

Tower Transit sells X over to RATP.