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Post by snowman on Dec 22, 2016 6:47:43 GMT
Bit of Christmas fun, a light hearted thread to predict what will be happening in about 3 years time.
Should be the London wide LEZ for buses, so will there be a lack of new bus orders as happened in 2005-2007 after completion of low floor conversion, will any pre 2008 bus still be in service, or would they have all gone as not worth upgrading.
Will tri axles be back ?
Will the mayor have reached his target of 300 electric buses ?
Will TfL change its specs and start adding wifi or air con or other features
Will mobility routes still exist, or hail and ride ?
What about garages, any new ones, which will have been closed by then
Could there be new Operators, or a merger, or a pull out of London by someone.
Let me know your thoughts of what the forum will be commenting on 1111 days from now
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Post by Nathan on Dec 22, 2016 8:47:57 GMT
Hybrids...Hybrids everywhere! I hope to see more EvoSeti-types running around London's streets. That, and some B5TLs in the outskirts. I'd also like to see Stagecoach order some more Volvo B5LHs to mix up their fleet a little *coughs* Route 136
Continuing on from bus types, I'd love to see less LTs on the streets. But that won't be happening any time soon, so the best I can which for is not seeing any future orders being brought up yet again. Oh, and no more EnviroCity types too.
I would love to see TfL finally bring WiFi to its buses. It's been needed for the longest time now. We've also seen USB charging ports installed on Go-Ahead's SEe-type. I hope to see this rolled out further across more buses. This feature has also been needed for a long time.
Speaking of GAL, I think they'll start to lose a bit of market share over the next few years. They've already lost major routes such as the 19, 259 and 333 to Arriva. Perhaps Arriva will take the crown yet again? I'd also like to see smaller companies such as Tower Transit and CT Plus gain some of the major routes too (TT having made a big win with the 13/82). Even though London United isn't necessarily small, I'd like them to gain more routes too as they've been struggling a little recently *coughs* Abellio buyout
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Post by M1104 on Dec 22, 2016 10:13:43 GMT
Some LT refurbishments
The odd decker on the 355
Another decker type used on the present contract 152 and 157
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Post by mondraker275 on Dec 22, 2016 10:37:40 GMT
No buses on Oxford Street. Bus speeds are at walking speed in central London. Bus patronage at an all time low. A bus crisis.
Sorry was it supposed to be a fun prediction.
Well, then... The Southern strikes may be over. I say 'may'.
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Post by sid on Dec 22, 2016 12:00:22 GMT
More hybrids and all electric buses, particularly more of the E400 City variety.
More specifications about comfortable seating, wifi and phone charging points.
LED displays to replace outdated roller blinds.
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Post by vjaska on Dec 22, 2016 12:32:45 GMT
Titans, Olympians & Metrobus returning on a grand scale
Ahh, I can only dream lol
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Post by snoggle on Dec 22, 2016 12:49:37 GMT
I expect bus patronage will continue to fall thus triggering a financial crisis for TfL. The business plan is clearly built on fragile foundations. There will be an all too late mass public complaint about removing buses from Zone 1 once people realise the tube and trains can't cope and people are forced to change buses to get anywhere. However it will be impossible to reverse the changes. I also expect some "fall out" from changes related to Crossrail in the suburbs. I don't think there will be any tri-axles on TfL routes. I do expect new "state of the art" deckers in Zone 1 and NB4Ls being cascaded outwards. Just to complete my misery I'd not be shocked to see them on the 123 - another "gift" from my friends at TfL.   The Mayor will achieve his 300 electric buses because he has to. I don't think vehicle interior specs will be changed. I do expect someone will change the blind specification *yet again*. Mobility buses will be gone within 6 months. Hail and Ride will be heavily rationalised off the back of "making stops accessible". I think we may see one of the large groups seek to rationalise their presence in London. I don't see much propsect for more smaller operators given the increasing bureaucratic burden of operating in London, ever more complex vehicle specs and the mandatory "minimum salary" provision. Hard for independents to cope with requirements that are far higher than for other tendering work (thinking about what was said about the soon to be new operators on SCC work into Kingston). Not sure about garages. Some sites will no doubt become highly valuable due to pressures for more housing and it will be interesting to see if TfL or the operators are "persuaded" to sell up to release land and whether Mayoral policy will allow it or prevent it. |
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Post by thewintersoldier on Dec 22, 2016 14:37:25 GMT
316 to still be single decker.
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Post by John tuthill on Dec 22, 2016 14:39:30 GMT
I expect bus patronage will continue to fall thus triggering a financial crisis for TfL. The business plan is clearly built on fragile foundations. There will be an all too late mass public complaint about removing buses from Zone 1 once people realise the tube and trains can't cope and people are forced to change buses to get anywhere. However it will be impossible to reverse the changes. I also expect some "fall out" from changes related to Crossrail in the suburbs. I don't think there will be any tri-axles on TfL routes. I do expect new "state of the art" deckers in Zone 1 and NB4Ls being cascaded outwards. Just to complete my misery I'd not be shocked to see them on the 123 - another "gift" from my friends at TfL. The Mayor will achieve his 300 electric buses because he has to.
I don't think vehicle interior specs will be changed. I do expect someone will change the blind specification *yet again*. Mobility buses will be gone within 6 months. Hail and Ride will be heavily rationalised off the back of "making stops accessible". I think we may see one of the large groups seek to rationalise their presence in London. I don't see much propsect for more smaller operators given the increasing bureaucratic burden of operating in London, ever more complex vehicle specs and the mandatory "minimum salary" provision. Hard for independents to cope with requirements that are far higher than for other tendering work (thinking about what was said about the soon to be new operators on SCC work into Kingston). Not sure about garages. Some sites will no doubt become highly valuable due to pressures for more housing and it will be interesting to see if TfL or the operators are "persuaded" to sell up to release land and whether Mayoral policy will allow it or prevent it. Three problems sorted in one  Attachment Deleted |
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Post by twobellstogo on Dec 23, 2016 16:47:45 GMT
Bit of Christmas fun, a light hearted thread to predict what will be happening in about 3 years time. Should be the London wide LEZ for buses, so will there be a lack of new bus orders as happened in 2005-2007 after completion of low floor conversion, will any pre 2008 bus still be in service, or would they have all gone as not worth upgrading. Go on then, let's have a predict... I think bus orders will continue at similar levels to now. Most, but not all pre-2008 buses will be gone by March 2020. The heritage RMs will be fitted with Euro 6 engines (a la RM1005) and will be allowed to continue in service beyond March 2020. No tri-axles. The mayor will easily reach 300 electric buses - total I think will be pushing towards 500 by March 2020. No wifi, no air con. No real change to interior specifications. Will stick neck out and predict a change in the all red exterior livery, but retaining the white roundel. Mobility routes all gone by end of 2017. Hail and ride all gone by end of 2018 No new garages from existing operators. Will again stick neck out and say one new operator to TfL work by March 2020 : one of Hallmark, Cardinal or Go-Coach, so one new garage by that means. One of the big players will pull out by 2020, don't know which one. Metroline to benefit from the pull out. |
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Post by snowman on Dec 24, 2016 11:22:02 GMT
My own guess is that all the pre 2008 buses will have gone by time London ULEZ becomes effective
There will be about 20 new school routes (so other services mainly carrying fresh air all day can be cut)
Will be a massive reorganisation of night route network with fewer radial services, but some new routes effectively forming a series of concentric circles around London, linking district centres and night tube stations.
Off peak and between peak services will be heavily thinned as bus network has lost so many passengers it is losing over £1m per day and the powers that be, have realised that only sensible to operate frequent services where there is little traffic, as no-one pays to use a slow service.
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Post by snoggle on Dec 24, 2016 12:01:40 GMT
My own guess is that all the pre 2008 buses will have gone by time London ULEZ becomes effective There will be about 20 new school routes (so other services mainly carrying fresh air all day can be cut) Will be a massive reorganisation of night route network with fewer radial services, but some new routes effectively forming a series of concentric circles around London, linking district centres and night tube stations. Off peak and between peak services will be heavily thinned as bus network has lost so many passengers it is losing over £1m per day and the powers that be, have realised that only sensible to operate frequent services where there is little traffic, as no-one pays to use a slow service. Not sure I agree with most of that. I can see your point about school routes but they remain very expensive to operate as they are peak time services. I can see a reduction *at weekends* on radial services but I don't see a massive reorganisation simply because people need radial services the remaining 5 nights a week. I don't see TfL having radically different weekend vs weekday night bus networks - it's contrary to their basic planning guidelines. I think TfL's main issue to take cost out of the peak time network hence the radical surgery planned in some places. Yes there may be some savings to be had by thinning the off peak but you create scheduling inefficiencies if the peak / off peak differential becomes too large. One example - I can see why the 158 was boosted in the peaks as it's heavily overloaded but why it is running x7-8 between the peaks I don't understand. I see the buses at the E17 end of the route and the buses are not heavily loaded. The question, though, is just what increment do you operate and where for the peaks. I'm not convinced you need loads of extra PM peak buses heading south on the 158 for example. The peak loads are out of Stratford and Leyton with perhaps a blip around Blackhorse Rd (interchange from the tube). Much as it would pain TfL it could probably target peak extras more effectively and get more productivity of the extra vehicles deployed by running extras over sections of route rather than the full route. The other thing TfL have to do is actually speed buses up to get journey times back in shape (he says with a hollow laugh   ) |
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Post by sid on Dec 24, 2016 12:14:37 GMT
My own guess is that all the pre 2008 buses will have gone by time London ULEZ becomes effective There will be about 20 new school routes (so other services mainly carrying fresh air all day can be cut) Will be a massive reorganisation of night route network with fewer radial services, but some new routes effectively forming a series of concentric circles around London, linking district centres and night tube stations. Off peak and between peak services will be heavily thinned as bus network has lost so many passengers it is losing over £1m per day and the powers that be, have realised that only sensible to operate frequent services where there is little traffic, as no-one pays to use a slow service. I certainly hope that happens sooner rather than later, at the moment it seems pot luck who gets a night service and who doesn't! |
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Post by ibus246 on Dec 29, 2017 17:13:12 GMT
Will be good to have a look at this and see what's happened this year...
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Post by vjaska on Dec 29, 2017 17:48:21 GMT
Will be good to have a look at this and see what's happened this year... Mine certainly didn’t that’s for sure lol. |
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