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Post by twobellstogo on Dec 14, 2023 16:40:57 GMT
My, we are a cheerful lot! World War 3 for goodness sake!
For what it is worth, my thoughts are:
- If there is to be another significant war, then Yemen looks likely. They are already in civil war and the ingredients are right for escalation unfortunately. The other two major wars in the world at the moment look likely to either do nothing quickly (Ukraine) or return to an uneasy distrust (Gaza).
- elections - probably a Labour victory in both London Mayoral and general. I can’t see Susan Hall doing anything much - what she gains in outer London won’t be enough for the keys to City Hall. The general election may slip to January 2025, but the current government look totally washed up and finished. A Labour victory may upset many with far right views, and this may be a worry as we move through the new parliament.
- TfL land - a better year than of late. Superloop will do well, and I think the Bakerloo extension to Lewisham may come back to the table. A few new bus consultations look likely - my guess is that these will be for Brixton, Lewisham, Kingston, Ilford/Barking and Barnet. We won’t lose any operators this year from TfL contracts.
On the negative side, I think huge numbers of bus contracts will be thrown back from myriad operators, and I don’t think it will be an easy year for industrial relations, particularly on the Underground.
- buses in the South East generally - some areas will get better (Surrey, Hertfordshire), some will stagnate (Buckinghamshire, Berkshire), some will deteriorate (Essex) and some will see savage cutting (Kent). Indeed, in Kent, I can see possibly some operator failures - even after its takeover, I fear for Go-Coach.
There you go, for better or worse.
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Post by T.R. on Dec 14, 2023 17:01:37 GMT
- More routes handed back for re tendering
- A few routes get considered for merging , a la 1/168.
- our class 701s finally start entering passenger service 💀
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Post by cardinal on Dec 14, 2023 18:56:33 GMT
I think 2024 will be hugely unstable politically even if there is an election. Polarisation is entrenched now amongst a large portion of the populace, or at least that is how it seems with our rubbish press. In that regard I sincerely hope the Daily Mail and Telegraph go bankrupt.
Bus in London I think will actually be quite stable and see a modest rise in usage. The only reductions I think we will see is some further cuts in Central London.
Outside London, agree with others about most counties west of London doing much better. Kent Council are totally useless. I wouldn’t be surprised to see bus travel here being practically either express routes or school routes. Small villages and towns will get cut off.
Operator wise, not much change. I do think Go Ahead will struggle though. They’ve a lot of drivers to recruit in SE London in next few months. (& retain) I don’t wish them to fail I just think the balloon has been blown up too much.
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Post by rj131 on Dec 14, 2023 22:25:03 GMT
An out there prediction from me, providing the external power supply issues at E are a long term issue due to inadequate infrastructure.
The 279 will get LTs from the 137, with the 137 taking the incoming ESs, the 137 converts early with more chargers installed at BN to accommodate it.
I also agree with the sentiment we are gonna see loads more routes thrown in next year, not just RATP ones.
Hopefully by next year I also achieve my quest that began in 2015 to take a trip on all regular London bus routes. Just 56 to go but my life will be made harder when new bus routes come in early next year. I’ve always said to myself to the 403 will be the very last route that I do, everything else will come before it (obviously apart from the SL4 if I get to the end before then)
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Post by mkay315 on Dec 15, 2023 12:03:58 GMT
- More routes handed back for re tendering - A few routes get considered for merging , a la 1/168. - our class 701s finally start entering passenger service 💀 You might be onto something with the route merging. I feel as though it's gone full circle. 20 plus years ago routes were getting split to simplify it and now routes are getting merged and extended. There's a few routes I will paying close attention to for the next few years. Notably in North London |
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Post by wirewiper on Dec 15, 2023 12:13:17 GMT
- More routes handed back for re tendering - A few routes get considered for merging , a la 1/168. - our class 701s finally start entering passenger service 💀 You might be onto something with the route merging. I feel as though it's gone full circle. 20 plus years ago routes were getting split to simplify it and now routes are getting merged and extended. There's a few routes I will paying close attention to for the next few years. Notably in North London A lot of the central London route splits in the early 1990s were to ensure that routes were only operated by a single bus division, prior to the sell-off of London Buses to private companies. For example: route 6 when it ran from Kensal Rise to Hackney Wick was operated by AC (Willesden), a Metroline garage, and AG (Ash Grove), an East London garage. The route was split at Aldwych so the shortened 6 stayed with Metroline and the new 26 was operated by East London only. |
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Post by mkay315 on Dec 15, 2023 12:24:00 GMT
You might be onto something with the route merging. I feel as though it's gone full circle. 20 plus years ago routes were getting split to simplify it and now routes are getting merged and extended. There's a few routes I will paying close attention to for the next few years. Notably in North London A lot of the central London route splits in the early 1990s were to ensure that routes were only operated by a single bus division, prior to the sell-off of London Buses to private companies. For example: route 6 when it ran from Kensal Rise to Hackney Wick was operated by AC (Willesden), a Metroline garage, and AG (Ash Grove), an East London garage. The route was split at Aldwych so the shortened 6 stayed with Metroline and the new 26 was operated by East London only. You could also add the 8 into the mix too with the Willesden part given to the 98. |
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Post by vjaska on Dec 15, 2023 12:44:20 GMT
You might be onto something with the route merging. I feel as though it's gone full circle. 20 plus years ago routes were getting split to simplify it and now routes are getting merged and extended. There's a few routes I will paying close attention to for the next few years. Notably in North London A lot of the central London route splits in the early 1990s were to ensure that routes were only operated by a single bus division, prior to the sell-off of London Buses to private companies. For example: route 6 when it ran from Kensal Rise to Hackney Wick was operated by AC (Willesden), a Metroline garage, and AG (Ash Grove), an East London garage. The route was split at Aldwych so the shortened 6 stayed with Metroline and the new 26 was operated by East London only. They were also because of rising congestion - try running a decent service on a Kensal Rise to Hackney Wick route nowadays. It’s no surprise when I was told the 1 has been struggling since it took over the 168’s majority routing |
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Post by capitalomnibus on Dec 16, 2023 0:17:58 GMT
You might be onto something with the route merging. I feel as though it's gone full circle. 20 plus years ago routes were getting split to simplify it and now routes are getting merged and extended. There's a few routes I will paying close attention to for the next few years. Notably in North London A lot of the central London route splits in the early 1990s were to ensure that routes were only operated by a single bus division, prior to the sell-off of London Buses to private companies. For example: route 6 when it ran from Kensal Rise to Hackney Wick was operated by AC (Willesden), a Metroline garage, and AG (Ash Grove), an East London garage. The route was split at Aldwych so the shortened 6 stayed with Metroline and the new 26 was operated by East London only. [AG] was not East London, it was London Forest. Even before the 6 was split to be 26 when Ash Grove closed in 1991, the 6 was split between [BW] East London and [AC] Metroline. In the end they chopped the route in half and the 6 went to Metroline and newly introduced 26 went to East London and 26 went OPO and had Scania's. It seemed so weird when the 26 was introduced could not get used to that number in Hackney Wick after seeing the 6 there for so many years. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Dec 16, 2023 8:22:11 GMT
I can see an operator or two leaving TfL land I think RATP will offload their London operation to the new MBOs : London Sovereign to Transport Group UK and London United (including X) to Rotala Group. Also, Sullivan will sell their London bus operation to Uno. No other London operator will change hands. |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Dec 16, 2023 8:32:16 GMT
General Election : October 24th.
Result Labour around 370-380 seats, Tories 180-200, LibDems 40, SNP 20, limited retains for Greens and Plaid Cymru, plus the 18 Northern Ireland seats.
Around 20 on the Tory losses will be back-door losses due to voter defection to Reform.
This GE will be slightly less pro-Labour/LibDem and anti-Tory than 1997, as Keir Starmer and Ed Davey are less charismatic than Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown.
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Post by southlondon413 on Dec 16, 2023 21:15:37 GMT
Sullivan Buses will give up their TFL operations. We already know they are at some point by no longer defending contracts. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Dec 16, 2023 23:24:57 GMT
If I were to take a guess:
More Anti-Motorist measures being put into place. Further decline on London's bus network as people use alternative methods. The Traffic calming measures end up driving people away from buses
'Re-distribution of resources' along some routes and corridors. I can see some areas being looked at, probably more cuts in East London as more people ditch the bus in the area. Another route introduced from Custom House to East Ham and the introduction of the SL2 sees route 169 cut back to Ilford Broadway. A reduction on the 269 as a result of the introduction of the SL3 but no route cuts along the corridor. The SL5 will either be a huge success or a huge flop - no in-between, this is due to its single deckers either unable to cope with demand or not attracting people onto the service in the first place. Could see an additional route introduced in the outskirts somewhere.
The Mayoral election sees another Sadiq Khan victory. Closer than the previous two elections but still a comfortable win.
The General Election takes place and Labour manage to take government, with a huge increase in support from Scotland and a return of the Red Wall. Could see some London seats flipping, most notably Romford which has been under a Labour-Havering Resident Association coalition lately. Uxbridge and South Ruislip finally also makes the switch to Labour while the constituencies around Bromley remain Conservative.
RATP becomes the next operator to leave London, they'll end up selling their garages to a variety of different operators who already operate within London bringing the total number of operators in London to 5 if you exclude Uno and Sullivans.
Go Ahead continue to see moderate success, and potentially cause RATP (or successor) some grief in the Morden area once/if Garth Road becomes operational. North of the river they continue to face driver shortages.
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Post by twobellstogo on Dec 17, 2023 11:42:21 GMT
- our class 701s finally start entering passenger service 💀 Prediction : my commutes (mainly Woking slows/New Guildford line) will still be almost entirely on 455s throughout 2024 😶 |
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Post by vjaska on Dec 17, 2023 14:50:29 GMT
- our class 701s finally start entering passenger service 💀 Prediction : my commutes (mainly Woking slows/New Guildford line) will still be almost entirely on 455s throughout 2024 😶 I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome |
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