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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2023 14:53:42 GMT
Prediction : my commutes (mainly Woking slows/New Guildford line) will still be almost entirely on 455s throughout 2024 😶 I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome Indeed, it's much needed, seen too many 5 coach services which used to be 8 or even 10. SWR are facing the same issues now, having 5 coach services in the peak, these will soon turn into 4 coach services in the coming months. |
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Post by vjaska on Dec 17, 2023 14:59:41 GMT
I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome Indeed, it's much needed, seen too many 5 coach services which used to be 8 or even 10. SWR are facing the same issues now, having 5 coach services in the peak, these will soon turn into 4 coach services in the coming months. Exactly. Under the 455’s, I had a 8 car London Bridge to Caterham service and now with the 377’s, it’s a 5 car London Bridge to East Croydon service - not ideal at peak times |
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Post by twobellstogo on Dec 17, 2023 15:33:55 GMT
Prediction : my commutes (mainly Woking slows/New Guildford line) will still be almost entirely on 455s throughout 2024 😶 I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome As someone who enjoys a ride on heritage vehicles, yay 455s. But I’m a regular commuter and the 455s are largely tired and clapped out - keep one four car unit as a memory of times past and send the rest to Newport to be recycled. The 701s can’t come soon enough. |
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Post by YY13VKP on Dec 17, 2023 19:04:23 GMT
I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome Indeed, it's much needed, seen too many 5 coach services which used to be 8 or even 10. SWR are facing the same issues now, having 5 coach services in the peak, these will soon turn into 4 coach services in the coming months. I greatly miss the Southern 455's. We could have done with them still being around to run a near pre-covid service now that travel on GTR is returning close to pre-pandemic levels. They were nowhere near knackered either, their reliability only suffered in their final few months because it was known that they would be retired so they could have continued on until at least 2025, but the DfT decided otherwise. With that being said, most peak Southern metro services are still 8 or 10 coaches (apart from the West London Line which are all 5's), there's just fewer metro services now than they were pre-COVID unfortunately. There were a load of 5's running a few weeks ago but that was a consequence of the overtime ban, particularly on the Caterham and Tattenham Corner line where no attachments and detachments could take place under ASOS. The stock situation on the metro may change soon, but certainly not while this government are still in power. |
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123ToLondon
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Posts: 177
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Post by 123ToLondon on Dec 17, 2023 20:08:39 GMT
If I were to take a guess: More Anti-Motorist measures being put into place. Further decline on London's bus network as people use alternative methods. The Traffic calming measures end up driving people away from buses 'Re-distribution of resources' along some routes and corridors. I can see some areas being looked at, probably more cuts in East London as more people ditch the bus in the area. Another route introduced from Custom House to East Ham and the introduction of the SL2 sees route 169 cut back to Ilford Broadway. A reduction on the 269 as a result of the introduction of the SL3 but no route cuts along the corridor. The SL5 will either be a huge success or a huge flop - no in-between, this is due to its single deckers either unable to cope with demand or not attracting people onto the service in the first place. Could see an additional route introduced in the outskirts somewhere. The Mayoral election sees another Sadiq Khan victory. Closer than the previous two elections but still a comfortable win. The General Election takes place and Labour manage to take government, with a huge increase in support from Scotland and a return of the Red Wall. Could see some London seats flipping, most notably Romford which has been under a Labour-Havering Resident Association coalition lately. Uxbridge and South Ruislip finally also makes the switch to Labour while the constituencies around Bromley remain Conservative. RATP becomes the next operator to leave London, they'll end up selling their garages to a variety of different operators who already operate within London bringing the total number of operators in London to 5 if you exclude Uno and Sullivans. Go Ahead continue to see moderate success, and potentially cause RATP (or successor) some grief in the Morden area once/if Garth Road becomes operational. North of the river they continue to face driver shortages. I know it's a prediction but the 169 will never get cut back to Ilford brodway, its the only route in Barking and Ilford lane thay goes to newbury park and barkingside and that's very well used especially during school hours the SL2 doesn't serve any stop in Ilford lane so I wouldn't think that it would be effective enough to result in a cutback for 169 |
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Post by lundnah on Dec 17, 2023 20:30:59 GMT
Here are half a dozen things I predict won't happen in 2024.
- MHV54 won't be transferred to Q
- The 204 won't be extended to Alperton
- Metroline won't take over the 376
- The 110 won't be awarded to Stagecoach with new electric buses
- HV205 won't turn short on Snakes Lane West
- The W7 won't be renumbered
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Post by ThinLizzy on Dec 18, 2023 1:23:42 GMT
OK here's mine:
- Arriva will shock everyone and retain the 66, 103 and 175. Routes will transfer into DX, which will become an electric depot
- Go Ahead will retain the 5
- 325 will be awful under GAL
- More routes won by companies in 2020/21 will be handed back to TfL, only for the companies to retain them on tender
- SL routes will continue after mid-2024 but with some major re-working involved to some of the less-successful routes
- First will re-enter the TfL market
- RATP will be sold in parts to Stagecoach, GAL and another company
- UNO will win more smaller routes
- Arriva will offload some of their loss-making companies
- SWR Class 701s will not enter service until late 2024 at the earliest
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Post by COBO on Dec 18, 2023 4:42:42 GMT
TikTok eventually fails and Google buys TikTok who then integrates it into youtube.
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Dec 18, 2023 15:17:49 GMT
If I were to take a guess: More Anti-Motorist measures being put into place. Further decline on London's bus network as people use alternative methods. The Traffic calming measures end up driving people away from buses 'Re-distribution of resources' along some routes and corridors. I can see some areas being looked at, probably more cuts in East London as more people ditch the bus in the area. Another route introduced from Custom House to East Ham and the introduction of the SL2 sees route 169 cut back to Ilford Broadway. A reduction on the 269 as a result of the introduction of the SL3 but no route cuts along the corridor. The SL5 will either be a huge success or a huge flop - no in-between, this is due to its single deckers either unable to cope with demand or not attracting people onto the service in the first place. Could see an additional route introduced in the outskirts somewhere. The Mayoral election sees another Sadiq Khan victory. Closer than the previous two elections but still a comfortable win. The General Election takes place and Labour manage to take government, with a huge increase in support from Scotland and a return of the Red Wall. Could see some London seats flipping, most notably Romford which has been under a Labour-Havering Resident Association coalition lately. Uxbridge and South Ruislip finally also makes the switch to Labour while the constituencies around Bromley remain Conservative. RATP becomes the next operator to leave London, they'll end up selling their garages to a variety of different operators who already operate within London bringing the total number of operators in London to 5 if you exclude Uno and Sullivans. Go Ahead continue to see moderate success, and potentially cause RATP (or successor) some grief in the Morden area once/if Garth Road becomes operational. North of the river they continue to face driver shortages. I know it's a prediction but the 169 will never get cut back to Ilford brodway, its the only route in Barking and Ilford lane thay goes to newbury park and barkingside and that's very well used especially during school hours the SL2 doesn't serve any stop in Ilford lane so I wouldn't think that it would be effective enough to result in a cutback for 169 I did consider this, but I see a shift to the SL2 when it's introduced. I can see it becoming the bus version of the c2c vs the District Line between Barking and West Ham where the faster alternative is only slightly faster than the slower but people regardless pile onto the faster alternative and crowd it up meaning people who can't use the slower alternative can't get onto the faster route because it's crowded up. I can't see the EL1 and 169 as a result both being needed to cope with the demand. The options will be to reduce the EL1, or remove either the EL1 or 169. The EL1s high frequency is needed throughout the route down to Barking Riverside, they did initially consider reducing it south of Barking Reach but decided against it so reducing the EL1 is unlikely to get anywhere. The EL1s every 6 frequency is also likely to be a relative match to whatever demand the SL2 won't scoop up compared to the 169s every 10 minute frequency which will be inadequate to manage by itself. TfL have also shown no remorse in breaking links, so I'd not be surprised to see something like this happen. Barking to Ilford is around 10-15 minutes, so the hopper fare excuse would suffice in this case. But I agree ideally the 169 will continue as it is, but if any changes were to happen along Ilford Lane it would be better placed on the 169 than the EL1. |
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Post by COBO on Dec 19, 2023 20:45:24 GMT
I can see an operator or two leaving TfL land I think RATP will offload their London operation to the new MBOs : London Sovereign to Transport Group UK and London United (including X) to Rotala Group. Also, Sullivan will sell their London bus operation to Uno. No other London operator will change hands. I can see RATP being divided between Metroline and GAL or First coming back and buying the whole thing. |
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Post by LD71YLO (BE37054) on Dec 21, 2023 16:46:55 GMT
I miss our 455’s - not that I dislike the 377 (far from it in fact) but the extra capacity on the network was welcome Indeed, it's much needed, seen too many 5 coach services which used to be 8 or even 10. SWR are facing the same issues now, having 5 coach services in the peak, these will soon turn into 4 coach services in the coming months. A couple of times as of late I've seen 4 car services on SWR, including one very crucial journey for school travel. You often get dozens of schoolkids on this service; piling onto a 4 car service with them is not something I wish to repeat! |
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Post by ServerKing on Dec 21, 2023 18:57:19 GMT
I think RATP will offload their London operation to the new MBOs : London Sovereign to Transport Group UK and London United (including X) to Rotala Group. Also, Sullivan will sell their London bus operation to Uno. No other London operator will change hands. I can see RATP being divided between Metroline and GAL or First coming back and buying the whole thing. Would take some doing for First to return to London, especially with TfL's increasing demands. Perhaps TUK and Rotala will divide the spoil. Diamond London could do well  |
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Post by londonbuses2018 on Dec 21, 2023 22:42:43 GMT
For TFL
Return of NumberA routes ie 2A etc
Role out of Superloop style routes not connected to the main Loop ie an Express version of the 142
Bus station redesigns ie Brent Cross or Golders Green
TFL declare a fare evasion emergency
Review of Night buses and a frequency change to every 20 minutes
Non TFL but regional
Liverpool Mayor steps up a tendering system similar action is called for in Devon and Cardiff
More bus cuts in the South East and South West prompting a response from Government to bing buses into Public Ownership over 4 years.
Flix bus starts a new service from London to Douglas (IOM) via Liverpool and another service to Dublin via Bootle
Non Transport related
More UK councils declare Bankruptcy (Sadly I see this coming)
A civil war somewhere in South America (Potential)
Anti Monarchy march in Spain (Potential)
Major UK pharmacy shuts more stores (Already shut stores in 2022 and 2023)
Major UK school academy goes into administration (Not proven it will)
McDonalds introduces spin off CosMcs to UK (If it goes well in the states)
McDonald’s makes the Big tasty permanent (So many people want this)
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Dec 23, 2023 3:34:53 GMT
Here are half a dozen things I predict won't happen in 2024.
- MHV54 won't be transferred to Q
- The 204 won't be extended to Alperton
- Metroline won't take over the 376
- The 110 won't be awarded to Stagecoach with new electric buses
- HV205 won't turn short on Snakes Lane West
- The W7 won't be renumbered
Conversely, on Easter Monday someone here might predict some or all of these things happening.  |
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Post by MetrolineGA1511 on Dec 23, 2023 3:37:34 GMT
Indeed, it's much needed, seen too many 5 coach services which used to be 8 or even 10. SWR are facing the same issues now, having 5 coach services in the peak, these will soon turn into 4 coach services in the coming months. A couple of times as of late I've seen 4 car services on SWR, including one very crucial journey for school travel. You often get dozens of schoolkids on this service; piling onto a 4 car service with them is not something I wish to repeat! I have noticed a problem with trains where some quiet services are formed of double units and some busy services formed by single units. I sometimes shun trains in favour of buses and particularly coaches if I am more likely to get a seat that way. |
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