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Post by WH241 on Aug 18, 2024 13:26:09 GMT
My prediction is the 8 and or 24 will be the first routes to see their LT batches withdrawn in 2026. I wonder if there’ll be a big shift around so earlier models are allocated to routes (if not already) finishing up in 2026/27, such as the 8, 24, 148, 159 to name but a few If the 313 contract is not extended, the 24, 27, 267 and 313 all finish on the 6th of November 2026. I predict that this day will be the first upon which planned withdrawals of LTs take place. The 24 and 313 LTs will probably be the ones that get withdrawn, but I'm kind of expecting the 267 to be electrified over the 24, with the LT9xx going to the 68 and the 68s vehicles to the 24. I honestly wouldn't even be surprised if the 24 and 267 both electrified. I think the 8 and 205 will both retain their existing vehicles on a three or four year contract, with BW being electrified for all four routes at once (or within a year of one another). I am doubtful any LTs will be withdrawn as early as 2026! They are still in the process of being refurbished and now having camera mirrors fitted! TfL will want to maximise as much value as possible from these buses. There could be a shuffle around of buses but that’s about it IMO. I do think we will see route 56 convert to LT on its new tender using the buses already with Stagecoach for the SL3. The 8 will be interesting as that could maybe do another shorter tender with LTs or maybe using existing hybrids depending on the outcome of the big batch of Stagecoach routes. I can’t see it or any BW going electric anytime soon. |
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Post by Eastlondoner62 on Aug 18, 2024 13:45:58 GMT
If the 313 contract is not extended, the 24, 27, 267 and 313 all finish on the 6th of November 2026. I predict that this day will be the first upon which planned withdrawals of LTs take place. The 24 and 313 LTs will probably be the ones that get withdrawn, but I'm kind of expecting the 267 to be electrified over the 24, with the LT9xx going to the 68 and the 68s vehicles to the 24. I honestly wouldn't even be surprised if the 24 and 267 both electrified. I think the 8 and 205 will both retain their existing vehicles on a three or four year contract, with BW being electrified for all four routes at once (or within a year of one another). I am doubtful any LTs will be withdrawn as early as 2026! They are still in the process of being refurbished and now having camera mirrors fitted! TfL will want to maximise as much value as possible from these buses. There could be a shuffle around of buses but that’s about it IMO. I do think we will see route 56 convert to LT on its new tender using the buses already with Stagecoach for the SL3. The 8 will be interesting as that could maybe do another shorter tender with LTs or maybe using existing hybrids depending on the outcome of the big batch of Stagecoach routes. I can’t see it or any BW going electric anytime soon. Why wouldn't BW go electric soon when it's effectively the perfect shape for it? |
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Post by matthieu1221 on Aug 18, 2024 19:57:21 GMT
Whilst tfl do like wasting our money , I feel like they will retrofit the LTs to electric if not all a fair few , original RM's lasted 50 odd years on the road no reason a LT couldn't if looked after properly . LT11's electric trial has been a flop given it spends more time off the road than on so I can't see them converting to electric in all honesty. The most amusing thing in FOI responses is that TfL can't complete their analysis of a trial given that that LT11 has not been in the road enough for them to conduct said analysis -- which in itself is quite revealing!  |
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Post by joefrombow on Aug 19, 2024 7:27:25 GMT
Whilst tfl do like wasting our money , I feel like they will retrofit the LTs to electric if not all a fair few , original RM's lasted 50 odd years on the road no reason a LT couldn't if looked after properly . LT11's electric trial has been a flop given it spends more time off the road than on so I can't see them converting to electric in all honesty. I read they were looking into it so could be a possibility although most retrofits to a different technology don't end well like the hybrid conversions with Vantage and LT11 as you have stated , www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/technology/wrightbus-launches-electrification-drive-diesel-buses |
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Post by redbus on Aug 19, 2024 9:40:53 GMT
I can easily see this conversion happening. Works well from TfLs perspective, extends the life of their already paid for assets (buses), and converts them to electric at much lower cost than having Operators buy new electric buses. Further it makes meeting a 2030 deadline easier to hit for complete electrification as I think bus manufacturers will struggle to produce sufficient electric buses for the demand in that period. I think only the Chinese manufacturers would make it possible for there to be sufficient production of buses in that timeline, certainly not British (or European) ones. |
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Post by mark on Aug 19, 2024 12:03:54 GMT
If LTs will be gone when the whole fleet converts to EV then why are TFL investing on cameras to replace the standard wing mirrors? LTs operate through some of the busiest parts of London (as well as to Botany Bay) where the risk of colliding with vulnerable road users is probably highest. In the grand scheme of things the cost of CSV in place of mirrors is small. If it prevents one “at fault” injury it’s probably paid for itself. In due course I fully expect CSV retrofit to become mandatory across the fleet. |
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Post by vjaska on Aug 19, 2024 13:38:30 GMT
I can easily see this conversion happening. Works well from TfLs perspective, extends the life of their already paid for assets (buses), and converts them to electric at much lower cost than having Operators buy new electric buses. Further it makes meeting a 2030 deadline easier to hit for complete electrification as I think bus manufacturers will struggle to produce sufficient electric buses for the demand in that period. I think only the Chinese manufacturers would make it possible for there to be sufficient production of buses in that timeline, certainly not British (or European) ones. Not if the current trial bus spends more time off the road than on. The 2030 deadline isn't set in stone and is on the basis of investment coming from the government so the original deadline of sometime in the 2030's could still be met |
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Post by redbus on Aug 19, 2024 14:11:57 GMT
I can easily see this conversion happening. Works well from TfLs perspective, extends the life of their already paid for assets (buses), and converts them to electric at much lower cost than having Operators buy new electric buses. Further it makes meeting a 2030 deadline easier to hit for complete electrification as I think bus manufacturers will struggle to produce sufficient electric buses for the demand in that period. I think only the Chinese manufacturers would make it possible for there to be sufficient production of buses in that timeline, certainly not British (or European) ones. Not if the current trial bus spends more time off the road than on. The 2030 deadline isn't set in stone and is on the basis of investment coming from the government so the original deadline of sometime in the 2030's could still be met Whilst all true, the existing trial is from one supplier and that does not mean a different supplier would not be more successful, particularly if they are an offshoot of the original manufacturer. |
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Post by wirewiper on Aug 19, 2024 14:47:03 GMT
I can easily see this conversion happening. Works well from TfLs perspective, extends the life of their already paid for assets (buses), and converts them to electric at much lower cost than having Operators buy new electric buses. Further it makes meeting a 2030 deadline easier to hit for complete electrification as I think bus manufacturers will struggle to produce sufficient electric buses for the demand in that period. I think only the Chinese manufacturers would make it possible for there to be sufficient production of buses in that timeline, certainly not British (or European) ones. Wrightbus are repowering 32 Wright Streetdecks for First Bus, so LTs aren't the only option - anything built from 2017 onwards is a possible candidate for repowering, I'm thinking especially of the 2020 ADL Enviro400 MMCs with Arriva and Stagecoach. |
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Post by vjaska on Aug 19, 2024 16:35:15 GMT
Not if the current trial bus spends more time off the road than on. The 2030 deadline isn't set in stone and is on the basis of investment coming from the government so the original deadline of sometime in the 2030's could still be met Whilst all true, the existing trial is from one supplier and that does not mean a different supplier would not be more successful, particularly if they are an offshoot of the original manufacturer. We've had Vantage and Magtec have a go at re-powering buses in recent years with poor results. The only successful re-powering in recent years off the top of my head ironically was converting hybrids to diesels |
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Post by WH241 on Aug 19, 2024 16:50:00 GMT
It seems the 17 has kept the part BDE allocation despite LTs moving into HT. I wonder if the route will retain the current set up? Could some higher number LTs be moving elsewhere?
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Post by WH241 on Sept 19, 2024 16:49:38 GMT
Seems to be a effort to get the 5 fully LT with just one EH out. I think this is the most LTs out on a weekday since it started converting way back in 2022.
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Post by bustavane on Sept 19, 2024 19:32:40 GMT
Seems to be a effort to get the 5 fully LT with just one EH out. I think this is the most LTs out on a weekday since it started converting way back in 2022.
Meanwhile, the 176 has seen 3 EHs and 3 WHVs today... |
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Post by bustavane on Sept 19, 2024 19:34:10 GMT
Seems to be a effort to get the 5 fully LT with just one EH out. I think this is the most LTs out on a weekday since it started converting way back in 2022.
Now (8pm) all LT. |
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