Night Tube Bus Routes

[jrussa]

Jun 29, 2014 10:52:58 GMT theexplorer said:

Night Routes like the N15 and N55, N47, N205 etc would still be needed to serve areas that have no tube/night tube. So we will not see the end of the Night Buses but the cut back of them. Routes like N38 from Victoria Bus Station to Walthamstow Central station via Hackney which go from ends/starts at both Victoria Line stations which will be 24 hours fully but pass though areas that have no tube/night tube. So Night Routes will still be around but routes like N8 will most likely be review and cut back.

I believe Route N8 would still be viable, but at a reduced frequency. Areas such as Shoreditch/Bethnal Green will require a night service! Bare in mind, the tube will only be operating 24hrs on weekends...

For Route N8, I would re-route it back to Woodford Wells and onto Loughton, but from Woodford, The Castle go via Route 275 to Woodford Bridge, High Road Chigwell, down High Road Chigwell, left onto Roding Lane North via Route 167 to Buckhurst Hill and then via Route 549 to Loughton Station.
Main Benefits - It would serve the central line Epping Branch stations to Loughton(Snaresbrook/South Woodford/Woodford/Buckhurst Hill/Loughton)


Another alteration to the route is in regards to the eastbound journey. It should loop into Leytonstone Bus Station, so that passengers who come off the central line at Leytonstone who wish to go any station on the Epping branch up to Loughton can easily interchange.

**It would be better if Route N8 could go via Route 549 from Woodford Station to Loughton, but I do not think double deckers can go under the bridge at Roding Valley Station**


In terms of Route N55 I would divert it at the junction of Markhouse Road and Church Street via Route 158 to Leyton Green and via Route 97 to Chingford. In addition I would extend it from Oxford Circus to Trafalgar Square.
(Chingford - Walthamstow - Midlands - Lea Bridge Rd - Hackney - Shoreditch - Old St - Clerkenwell - Holborn - TCR - Oxford Circus - Piccadilly Circus - Trafalgar Square)
*A PVR increase would be necessary for the additional number of passengers
*Route N26 can be withdrawn





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[jay38a]

Jul 4, 2014 17:54:25 GMT jrussa said:

Jun 29, 2014 10:52:58 GMT theexplorer said:

Night Routes like the N15 and N55, N47, N205 etc would still be needed to serve areas that have no tube/night tube. So we will not see the end of the Night Buses but the cut back of them. Routes like N38 from Victoria Bus Station to Walthamstow Central station via Hackney which go from ends/starts at both Victoria Line stations which will be 24 hours fully but pass though areas that have no tube/night tube. So Night Routes will still be around but routes like N8 will most likely be review and cut back.

I believe Route N8 would still be viable, but at a reduced frequency. Areas such as Shoreditch/Bethnal Green will require a night service! Bare in mind, the tube will only be operating 24hrs on weekends...

For Route N8, I would re-route it back to Woodford Wells and onto Loughton, but from Woodford, The Castle go via Route 275 to Woodford Bridge, High Road Chigwell, down High Road Chigwell, left onto Roding Lane North via Route 167 to Buckhurst Hill and then via Route 549 to Loughton Station.
Main Benefits - It would serve the central line Epping Branch stations to Loughton(Snaresbrook/South Woodford/Woodford/Buckhurst Hill/Loughton)


Another alteration to the route is in regards to the eastbound journey. It should loop into Leytonstone Bus Station, so that passengers who come off the central line at Leytonstone who wish to go any station on the Epping branch up to Loughton can easily interchange.

**It would be better if Route N8 could go via Route 549 from Woodford Station to Loughton, but I do not think double deckers can go under the bridge at Roding Valley Station**


In terms of Route N55 I would divert it at the junction of Markhouse Road and Church Street via Route 158 to Leyton Green and via Route 97 to Chingford. In addition I would extend it from Oxford Circus to Trafalgar Square.
(Chingford - Walthamstow - Midlands - Lea Bridge Rd - Hackney - Shoreditch - Old St - Clerkenwell - Holborn - TCR - Oxford Circus - Piccadilly Circus - Trafalgar Square)
*A PVR increase would be necessary for the additional number of passengers
*Route N26 can be withdrawn





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The bridge on Buckhurst Way is not plated, so will be able to take deckers

[Tangy]

I can confirm the above as I have bashed a variety of double deckers under the Roding Valley bridge on Central line rail replacements between Woodford and Loughton.

[Deleted]

A date has been set for the night tube

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29336093

No word yet as to whether night buses will be revised, but given this date coincides with the Rubgy World Cup , events of which are being held in Twickenham , Stratford and Wembley, I doubt any changes will be made to start with, but will have to wait and see.

[sw11simon]

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

[snoggle]

Sept 25, 2014 11:41:58 GMT sw11simon said:

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

I don't disagree with the broad thrust of what you've said. One aspect where I think TfL will struggle with the "court of public opinion" is not having linking buses in the suburbs. Opposition politicians have already said they should be run. If you accept Mr Daniels' mantra, that he repeats every time he talks about changes to services, then nothing that is done to improve the TfL bus network pays for itself. If you start at that position then nothing will ever happen apart from cuts. That is patently ridiculous when demand is rising and so is the consequential overcrowding.

If we look at one simple example - Leyton tube. It will gain a night tube service. I expect it will be busy. However it will have a x30 night bus service (69) from the stops right by the station. It has another night bus (N205) two stops away in one direction and one (the N26) one stop in the opposite direction. Let's hope someone is savvy in how they provide local info for people. One stop along the line things are worse with no service on the north side (e.g. W15) and a mixed set up on the south side (N8 but in only one direction at the bus station). The N55 skirts the Green Man roundabout. I can see merit in there being a night W15 given how heavily it loads during the day. I'm sure these sorts of issues will be repeated multiple times across London and TfL has some difficult decisions to make. None of this is very easy given LU and Surface Transport are budgeted separately and LU is close to break even at an operating level. The Night Tube may cover some of its costs once LU is confident about its ability to handle whatever demand turns up and it can stablilise service and staffing levels. Buses are likely to do badly because they'll simply lose revenue on the busiest night bus routes making it more likely service levels will be cut. That worsens the subsidy requirement unless big cost reductions can be achieved on the night bus network (I accept some reductions may well be sensible of the demand evaporates).

[6HP502C]

Sept 25, 2014 11:41:58 GMT sw11simon said:

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

I used to be a weekend night driver, enjoyed doing the N3s and N35s enough to keep up a 130 mile commute each way . I'd do night driving again if the opportunity came up. Maybe the bus operators should try advertising for part time weekend drivers in universities (among other places) - I'm sure there'd be some takers.

I wouldn't have thought there would be many reductions in South London - the N97 will likely survive with at least a basic 2 bph service as it provides useful links to Hammersmith and the West End, with fair usage on weeknights. The N155's weekend frequency will probably drop, but be buoyed by the lack of night tube at the major interchange that is the Elephant & Castle. Given the paucity of tube lines in South London, I don't foresee scope for much else being reduced or withdrawn. If anything, I'd expect to see more duties south of the river. There are some parallels, the N2 with the Victoria Line and N381 with the Jubilee, but they both see a significant proportion of travellers in the sections which will be remote from a Night Tube station.

I'd quite like to see the 37 get a third bus on weekends. The weekend loadings between Brixton and Peckham are quite remarkable. It's not exactly crowded, but it is common to have 55+ people upon departure from Brixton sitting comfortably on their way to the increasingly trendy Peckham Rye station area. I expect there may be some uplift from the Victoria Line in operation.

I use the N68 when I've missed the 176 and frequently observe loads of 60 people plus - it has run half hourly since 2001 and at certain times of the night, is at saturation point.

I don't think there'll be any change at all to the structure of the N109 or similar routes - they are well used on weekday mornings into Central London before the tube starts.

[Deleted]

Sept 25, 2014 11:41:58 GMT sw11simon said:

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

I would seriously doubt a withdrawal of the N97 / N5 / N20

A frequency reduction at weekends maybe...

[vjaska]

Sept 26, 2014 16:24:07 GMT 6HP502C said:

Sept 25, 2014 11:41:58 GMT sw11simon said:

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

I used to be a weekend night driver, enjoyed doing the N3s and N35s enough to keep up a 130 mile commute each way . I'd do night driving again if the opportunity came up. Maybe the bus operators should try advertising for part time weekend drivers in universities (among other places) - I'm sure there'd be some takers.

I wouldn't have thought there would be many reductions in South London - the N97 will likely survive with at least a basic 2 bph service as it provides useful links to Hammersmith and the West End, with fair usage on weeknights. The N155's weekend frequency will probably drop, but be buoyed by the lack of night tube at the major interchange that is the Elephant & Castle. Given the paucity of tube lines in South London, I don't foresee scope for much else being reduced or withdrawn. If anything, I'd expect to see more duties south of the river. There are some parallels, the N2 with the Victoria Line and N381 with the Jubilee, but they both see a significant proportion of travellers in the sections which will be remote from a Night Tube station.

I'd quite like to see the 37 get a third bus on weekends. The weekend loadings between Brixton and Peckham are quite remarkable. It's not exactly crowded, but it is common to have 55+ people upon departure from Brixton sitting comfortably on their way to the increasingly trendy Peckham Rye station area. I expect there may be some uplift from the Victoria Line in operation.

I use the N68 when I've missed the 176 and frequently observe loads of 60 people plus - it has run half hourly since 2001 and at certain times of the night, is at saturation point.

I don't think there'll be any change at all to the structure of the N109 or similar routes - they are well used on weekday mornings into Central London before the tube starts.

The third bus might be very useful for the Brixton to Wandsworth section which is where 37's are extremely packed at night - those trendy young people like moving between Clapham Junction, Clapham Common & Brixton which all have big night scenes.

[sw11simon]

Sept 26, 2014 16:24:07 GMT 6HP502C said:

Sept 25, 2014 11:41:58 GMT sw11simon said:

On the face of it, I would expect some savings to be looked for on the buses. The likes of the N155, where frequencies are higher on Fri/Sat are surely likely to be reduced to an even 7 day frequency.
Whether it will go as far as removing central London links on the likes of the N109 2 days a week remains to be seen - I personally doubt it, it would be very confusing but again weekend frequencies likely to be reviewed on some routes and possibly some shorter workings to represent revised demand.
I would expect the N97, and possibly other routes that significantly operate over tube parallels and are served by other night buses (thinking N5/N20 but don't know those routes well enough to judge), to be withdrawn in their 7 day entirety. There is capacity during the week on the other routes, and a combination of N11/N74 cover most journeys on this route. On a cost/benefit basis I can't see it surviving. I know there will be a minority that use it, but there are alternatives.
On the other hand, I cannot see a rush to introduce routes that run overnight on a Friday and Saturday only to feed the night tube. Staffing wise, this would a difficult balance as, directly or indirectly, you'd need a group of part time staff wanting to work 2 days a week on Friday and Saturday nights (the two hardest shifts to cover) or budget in overtime working. Bearing in mind that not introducing these routes would not make anything worse than it is now, I would expect extreme caution in such introductions. They will not pay for themselves.

I used to be a weekend night driver, enjoyed doing the N3s and N35s enough to keep up a 130 mile commute each way . I'd do night driving again if the opportunity came up. Maybe the bus operators should try advertising for part time weekend drivers in universities (among other places) - I'm sure there'd be some takers.

I wouldn't have thought there would be many reductions in South London - the N97 will likely survive with at least a basic 2 bph service as it provides useful links to Hammersmith and the West End, with fair usage on weeknights. The N155's weekend frequency will probably drop, but be buoyed by the lack of night tube at the major interchange that is the Elephant & Castle. Given the paucity of tube lines in South London, I don't foresee scope for much else being reduced or withdrawn. If anything, I'd expect to see more duties south of the river. There are some parallels, the N2 with the Victoria Line and N381 with the Jubilee, but they both see a significant proportion of travellers in the sections which will be remote from a Night Tube station.

I'd quite like to see the 37 get a third bus on weekends. The weekend loadings between Brixton and Peckham are quite remarkable. It's not exactly crowded, but it is common to have 55+ people upon departure from Brixton sitting comfortably on their way to the increasingly trendy Peckham Rye station area. I expect there may be some uplift from the Victoria Line in operation.

I use the N68 when I've missed the 176 and frequently observe loads of 60 people plus - it has run half hourly since 2001 and at certain times of the night, is at saturation point.

I don't think there'll be any change at all to the structure of the N109 or similar routes - they are well used on weekday mornings into Central London before the tube starts.

I used to drive the N68... it is a nightmare on Fri/Sat nights and definitely needs to be enhanced. It is not in any way affected by these proposals. I would only see routes that significantly shadow tube line to have some frequencies reduced or structures changed. I can see your point in taking employees from Universities - it could work - but then again you would be looking at the cost of training people for the licence and the need to gain commitment to work for a set period with the normal training bond caviats. I don't think many people would do the commute you describe! I still believe the N97 could go, we'll see. The N155 should have more capacity at E&C, even on a reduced service.

[6HP502C]

Sept 26, 2014 18:18:37 GMT sw11simon said:

I used to drive the N68... it is a nightmare on Fri/Sat nights and definitely needs to be enhanced. It is not in any way affected by these proposals. I would only see routes that significantly shadow tube line to have some frequencies reduced or structures changed. I can see your point in taking employees from Universities - it could work - but then again you would be looking at the cost of training people for the licence and the need to gain commitment to work for a set period with the normal training bond caviats. I don't think many people would do the commute you describe! I still believe the N97 could go, we'll see. The N155 should have more capacity at E&C, even on a reduced service.

I think the N68 may be affected for two reasons - Elephant & Castle is the portal to the Underground for many South East Londoners - thousands of tube to bus interchanges take place every hour. In the absence of a Night Tube at the Elephant, some of this demand may well shift to Waterloo when the Night Tube comes in, making Waterloo much busier. Secondly, new journey opportunities may become attractive to people once the Night Tube comes in - people living in this part of South London will be able to get home from places like Wembley, North Greenwich, Camden and the West End much more quickly with a single change at Waterloo for example. All theory, but I guess we'll see what happens with travel patterns in a couple of years time.

As for recruitment, I imagine it will be a logistical challenge for the operators. I wonder what's done at the moment with routes like the N29 and N155? When I started with Abellio, crosslinking between different routes and minimum daily/weekly pay and paid breaks were non existent. Both the N3 and N35 had a lot of short, unrostered weekend duties. The allocators behind the front desk had to chase drivers to volunteer to do them. I used to stay away from those duties - 0100 to 0500 on a Sunday morning meant no work on Saturday and a seriously compromised ability to get even a late job on Sunday. I was lucky in getting the proper duties where night drivers were off for whatever reason. Very difficult when T&Cs are poor - one answer would be to shorten day driver's duties, guarantee them minimum 38 hour weekly pay then crosslink - longer duties are somewhat a carrot for those doing rest days. But that would cost money which might mean the difference between winning and losing tender bids, which is a pity really. That said, in reality that's what allocations would end up doing anyway - "fancy 4 hours of overtime?"

As I say, I wonder how other operators do it? Are there part time rotas for weekend nights, mixed rotas with nights at weekends, split shifts or what?

[sw11simon]

Sept 26, 2014 19:35:46 GMT 6HP502C said:

Sept 26, 2014 18:18:37 GMT sw11simon said:

I used to drive the N68... it is a nightmare on Fri/Sat nights and definitely needs to be enhanced. It is not in any way affected by these proposals. I would only see routes that significantly shadow tube line to have some frequencies reduced or structures changed. I can see your point in taking employees from Universities - it could work - but then again you would be looking at the cost of training people for the licence and the need to gain commitment to work for a set period with the normal training bond caviats. I don't think many people would do the commute you describe! I still believe the N97 could go, we'll see. The N155 should have more capacity at E&C, even on a reduced service.

I think the N68 may be affected for two reasons - Elephant & Castle is the portal to the Underground for many South East Londoners - thousands of tube to bus interchanges take place every hour. In the absence of a Night Tube at the Elephant, some of this demand may well shift to Waterloo when the Night Tube comes in, making Waterloo much busier. Secondly, new journey opportunities may become attractive to people once the Night Tube comes in - people living in this part of South London will be able to get home from places like Wembley, North Greenwich, Camden and the West End much more quickly with a single change at Waterloo for example. All theory, but I guess we'll see what happens with travel patterns in a couple of years time.

As for recruitment, I imagine it will be a logistical challenge for the operators. I wonder what's done at the moment with routes like the N29 and N155? When I started with Abellio, crosslinking between different routes and minimum daily/weekly pay and paid breaks were non existent. Both the N3 and N35 had a lot of short, unrostered weekend duties. The allocators behind the front desk had to chase drivers to volunteer to do them. I used to stay away from those duties - 0100 to 0500 on a Sunday morning meant no work on Saturday and a seriously compromised ability to get even a late job on Sunday. I was lucky in getting the proper duties where night drivers were off for whatever reason. Very difficult when T&Cs are poor - one answer would be to shorten day driver's duties, guarantee them minimum 38 hour weekly pay then crosslink - longer duties are somewhat a carrot for those doing rest days. But that would cost money which might mean the difference between winning and losing tender bids, which is a pity really. That said, in reality that's what allocations would end up doing anyway - "fancy 4 hours of overtime?"

As I say, I wonder how other operators do it? Are there part time rotas for weekend nights, mixed rotas with nights at weekends, split shifts or what?

When I was at Q the 12 ran extra night buses on Fri/Sat. I believe there were a couple of duties that needed to be covered by allocation and the rest were on the rota. This causes (it is the same at other garages) very few weekends off for night drivers compared to day drivers reducing the appeal of the work further. I can only think of a couple of staff who worked part time, Friday/Saturday nights only and they were SW... one guy transferred from Q to do that but it was for specific circumstances and he reduced from full time. There were no part time rotas for weekend nights (and to be honest I think they would be very difficult to populate) and no mixed rotas with nights at weekends.

Night drivers get so few weekends off they rarely want to do rest days on them. To cover weekend night work, allocation would often have to beg drivers from a willing pool to swap their duties - this willing pool was quite small. Quite often I would go from night shift Saturday to late shift Sunday with minimum rest. Generally this then resulted in another job that needed to be covered at overtime rate so it all adds cost.

Back to the N68, the oddity of this route is that you don't really pick up many people at all at Tottenham Court Road - main pick ups are Holborn, Aldwych, Waterloo, Elephant and Camberwell. Personally I have always though it would be better starting at Euston keeping the familiar route pattern. You did often get people jumping up with surprise when you turned left into High Holborn from Kingsway! Maybe the night tube would be an opportunity to make this small change. I do agree it could cause a passenger movement from Elephant to Waterloo.

[Deleted]

I've said this before, but people using the new night tube are going to expect to get all the way home rather than just to their nearest tube station.
Take Hammersmith as an example. Isn't is a fair assumption that people living in Mortlake may wish to use the 209 ?
I think some existing night routes like the 65, 72 , 220 , 297 will have to be enhanced at weekends.

[Deleted]

Oct 7, 2014 4:32:37 GMT @rgd976 said:

I've said this before, but people using the new night tube are going to expect to get all the way home rather than just to their nearest tube station.
Take Hammersmith as an example. Isn't is a fair assumption that people living in Mortlake may wish to use the 209 ?
I think some existing night routes like the 65, 72 , 220 , 297 will have to be enhanced at weekends.

Quite so and North Greenwich and Morden are surely going to need a few more nightbus routes on a Friday and Saturday night?

[routew15]

The Night Central Line has been extended from Leytonstone to Loughton via South Woodford (on the Epping Branch)

The more Night tube lines introduced the more Night bus problems to occur.

EDIT -

In addition to the five lines in the base case, the Night Tube is also assumed to operate on the following lines:

• Metropolitan line: Aldgate to Harrow-on-the-Hill
• Hammersmith and City line: Hammersmith to Tower Hill
• District line: Barking to Wimbledon 

Quoted from Tfl Report on Economic impact of the Night Tube

Those could be the first 3 Sub-Surface Lines to join the Night Tube after their upgrade is completed (2018/2019)